One Generation
to Save World
By Paul Brown
The human race has only one or perhaps two generations to rescue itself,
according to the 2003 State of the World report by the Washington-based
Worldwatch Institute.
The longer that no remedial
action is taken, the greater the degree of misery and biological impoverishment
that humankind must be prepared to accept, the institute says in its
20th annual report.
Overuse of resources, pollution
and destruction of natural areas continue to threaten life on the planet.
Conditions continue to deteriorate rapidly, the report says, although
there are some hopeful signs in that technical solutions to the problems
have been found and - where there is political will - adopted. In most
cases, though, nothing is being done.
Among the worst trends worldwide
is that 420 million people live in countries which no longer have enough
crop land to grow their own food and have to rely on imports. Around
1.2 billion people, or about a fifth of the world's population, live
in absolute poverty - defined as surviving on the equivalent of less
than $1, or 62p, a day.
About one quarter of the
developing world's crop land is being degraded, and the rate is increasing.
The greatest threat is not a shortage of land, says the report, but
a shortage of water, with more than 500 million people living in regions
prone to chronic drought.
By 2025 that number is likely
to have increased at least fivefold, to between 2.4bn and 3.4bn. A probable
world population increase of 27% over the same period will create social
and ecological instability.
Global warming is accelerating,
and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has reached 370.9 parts per million,
the highest level for at least 420,000 years and probably for 20m years.
Toxic chemicals are being
released in ever-increasing quantities, and global production of hazardous
waste has reached more than 300m tonnes a year. There is only a vague
idea of what damage this does to humans and natural systems, the report
says.
Another threat is the movement
of highly invasive species to regions where they may pose problems to
native species.
The state of the world's
natural life support system is perhaps the most worrying indicator for
the future, says the report. About 30% of the world's surviving forests
are seriously fragmented or degraded, and they are being cut down at
the rate of 50,000sq miles a year, it says.
Wetlands have been reduced
by 50% over the last century. Coral reefs, the world's most diverse
aquatic systems, are suffering the effects of overfishing, pollution,
epidemic diseases and rising temperatures.
A quarter of the world's
mammal species and 12% of the birds are in danger of extinction.
On the hopeful side, the
report says that renewable energy technologies have now developed sufficiently
to supply the world. They could significantly reduce the threat to the
world from pollution - but currently there is a lack of political will
to introduce them fast enough.
Another industry which causes
widespread destruction, mining for minerals, could be largely replaced
by re-use and recycling.
Mining consumes 10% of the
world's energy, spews out toxic emissions, and threatens 40% of the
world's undeveloped forests but these effects could be drastically reduced.
Another crisis which the
report identifies is in the world's cities, where one billion people
seek shelter in shanty towns, often on hillsides, flood plains, in rubbish
dumps or downstream of industrial polluters.
The inhabitants of these
settlements live at constant threat of eviction, but also of natural
disasters and disease. Urban centers in the south now dominate the ranks
of the world's largest cities.
Slum dwellers are organizing
for greater rights and better lives, the report says. One of the great
challenges for governments is to help their poorest citizens feel secure
in their own homes, make a living and improve their environment.
Dark clouds, silver linings
Worst trends
-Malaria claims 7,000 lives
every day
-Bird extinctions running
at 50 times natural rate
-Global
rate of ice melt more than doubled since 1988; sea levels may rise 27cm
by 2100
-New fishing technologies
help to locate and further exploit declining stocks
Reasons for hope
-Populations have stabilized
in Europe and much of south-east Asia
- Organic farming is the
fastest-growing sector of world agricultural economy
-Wind and photovoltaic electricity
generating capacity to increase 30% a year for five years (1% for fossil
fuels)
-Production
of ozone-depleting CFCs fell 81% in the 90s, slowing growth in ozone
hole