The fast deteriorating security situation between India and Pakistan has created a sinister possibility of a destructive conflict unless big powers step in to diffuse the situation
The recent attack on Sujwan Army camp in Jammu coupled with the shelling and firing on the border is an indicator of a fast deteriorating security situation between India and Pakistan. In fact, Tapan Bose, an independent peace activist and an author has written an article in Counter Currents. Org titled, “India Pakistan: The Coming War”. Describing the deteriorating security situation across the line of control and international border in Jammu he feels that the possibility of another destructive war in the sub-continent is real. “The fear that under the BJP rule, India will be increasingly drawn into US imperialism’s game plan for extending its hegemony over this region to counter China’s growing economic and military power is real. The USA has always fought their wars in other people’s territories bringing utter devastation to the people and the economy. That continuous localized military clashes, can lead to large-scale war is an established historic fact. We have become so used to this perpetual cycle of instability and constant confrontations, along the Indo-Pakistan border that we have lost sight of the inherent danger that these confrontations pose to peace in South Asia. As a result, despite our best efforts, the next big war in the Asia-Pacific, like most military conflicts, may come as an apparent surprise when we least expect it. For what is clear is that the current instability in the Asia-Pacific cannot endure indefinitely.”
Last year Arindam Dehad written an article in dailyo.in, “India-Pakistan nuclear war in the near future is possible”. According to him, the two nuclear armed countries have about 120 to 130 warheads each and enough delivery systems to deploy these warheads. Recently Indian Army Chief spoke about the plan for a fast, localised conventional invasion of parts of Pakistan. He may be thinking of not getting a nuclear strike with a limited operation. However, there is no guarantee that Pakistan will not respond with a nuclear strike against such a limited operation. According to Arindam De, Islamabad could use tactical nuclear weapons in advance or in anticipation of an Indian action. According to him, US may not broker peace as it is using India against China’s expansion in Pakistan.
Arindam says, “Guided by simple logic, if Pakistan must have any chance of winning a war against India, it will use its nuclear weapons — almost all of it. If India wishes to counter it in any way, it has got to be pre-emptive, simply because any n-tipped missile in the subcontinental theatre would take barely 10 minutes to start hitting the targets, irrespective of who launches them. So no side can technically afford to go second. A very scary scenario!Even a limited nuclear exchange between the neighbours would affect some 50 lakh people and kill close to 20 lakh directly and in the famines that may follow”.
However, the estimates of destruction given by other sources during a nuclear exchange between two neighbours put the casualties at more than ten million. The destruction would be so immense that it will take two countries like Hiroshima, more than 40 years or so to recover back to a semblance of normal situation! It would in real sense be an Armageddon for the sub-continent and may also involve other neighbouring countries because of radiation fall out!
Interestingly, such a war has an astrological background also. Mr. Sachin Malhotra, a passionate astrologer and a writer had written an article in August, 2016 in “astrologicalmusings.com” about India-Pakistan sliding towards a big war. According to him the conjunctions of Saturn-Mars in Scorpio in 2016 and Saturn-Jupiter in Capricorn in 2020 are dangerous astrological combinations and could bring war in South Asia. According to Sachin the eruption of unrest in Kashmir in July, 2016 had a good possibility of resulting in an Indo-Pak conflict. Sachin has described in detail the foundation charts of India and Pakistan. According to him, various events in the sub-continent may set a stage for a dangerous India-Pakistan war in 2020 when transiting Saturn and Jupiter will be in conjunction in “Makar” Rashi. Sachin says that China will support Pakistan in its war against India. Interestingly, Sachin has also given in detail the Horoscopes of the top BJP leadership. According to him, in their charts the maximum numbers of planets are connected with the 7th house which is the lord of war! Later from October, 2018 to June 2020 the top leadership will be under Moon-Venus combination which indicates danger of war under their leadership. This may suit them for the next election which they plan to hold in 2018 itself. For the new election there can be no better way to generate a wave of religious frenzy than a war with Pakistan. It would be a Dharam Yudh!
Thus, by all indications, the sub-continent has clouds of war hovering around. The only way to defuse this earthly and heavenly shadow of darkness and horror is to defuse the deteriorating security situation through dialogue. In fact, some prominent citizens on the two sides of the border have started a joint petition asking the Prime Ministers of the two countries to direct their armies to stop shelling and firing on the Line of Control and start a dialogue to resolve these ongoing tensions once and for all.Let us pray and hope the plea is taken seriously by the two leaders!
Mohammad Ashraf, I.A.S. (Retired), Former Director General Tourism, Jammu & Kashmir