COVID-19: ILO predicts 195 million job losses, 400 million in India will fall deeper into poverty

coronavirus migration

The coronavirus pandemic can wipe out 6.7 per cent of working hours globally in the second quarter of 2020, which is equivalent to 195 million full-time workers. This number far exceeds the effects of the 2008-09 financial crisis, the International Labour Organization (ILO) warned on Tuesday.

According to the ILO report “ILO Monitor 2nd edition: COVID-19 and the world of work”, more than four out of five people (81 per cent) in the global workforce of 3.3 billion are currently affected by full or partial workplace closures.

Although all regions of the world are suffering from the fallout of COVID-19, Arab States and Europe have seen the worst impact on employment in percentage terms.

The biggest losses numerically are in Asia-Pacific States, the most populous region of the world.

The report said: Large reductions are foreseen in the Arab states (8.1 per cent, equivalent to 5 million full-time workers), Europe (7.8 per cent, or 12 million full-time workers) and Asia and the Pacific (7.2 per cent, 125 million full-time workers).

It said: Huge losses are foreseen across different income groups, especially in upper-middle income countries (7.0 per cent, 100 million full-time workers), said the ILO report.

“Workers and businesses are facing catastrophe, in both developed and developing economies. We have to move fast, decisively, and together. The right and urgent measures could make the difference between survival and collapse,” Guy Ryder, ILO’’s Director-General, said in a statement.

The eventual increase in global unemployment during 2020 will depend substantially on future developments and policy measures.

“There is a high risk that the end-of-year figure will be significantly higher than the initial ILO projection, of 25 million,” said the report.

According to the new study, 1.25 billion workers are employed in the sectors identified as being at high risk of “drastic and devastating” increases in layoffs and reductions in wages and working hours.

Many are in low-paid, low-skilled jobs, where a sudden loss of income could be devastating, said the report.

Worldwide, 2 billion people work in the informal sector (mostly in emerging and developing economies) and are particularly at risk.

“This is the greatest test for international cooperation in more than 75 years,” said Ryder.

“If one country fails, then we all fail. We must find solutions that help all segments of our global society, particularly those that are most vulnerable or least able to help themselves,” Ryder added.

The warning comes almost three weeks after the ILO predicted that 25 million jobs were threatened by the pandemic.

According to the agency, the latest dire assessment reflects the full or partial lockdown measures affecting almost 2.7 billion workers – four in five of the world’s workforce.

Global unemployment already at 190 million

Speaking in Geneva via videoconference on Tuesday, ILO Director-General noted that at the start of the year – before COVID-19 spread worldwide – global unemployment already stood at around 190 million.

With the additional shock of the virus, it was “obvious” that the world of work is suffering an “absolutely extraordinary fall” because of the effects of the pandemic and the measures taken to deal with it, he added.

Worst affected sectors

Workers in four sectors that have experienced the most “drastic” effects of the disease and falling production are: food and accommodation (144 million workers), retail and wholesale (482 million); business services and administration (157 million); and manufacturing (463 million).

Together, they add up to 37.5 per cent of global employment and this is where the “sharp end” of the impact of the pandemic is being felt now, the ILO chief added.

Frontline workers ‘must be kept safe’

Taking a moment to reflect on the world’s 136 million health and social professionals who are working in the frontline of the fight against the virus, the ILO chief underscored that for them, the biggest potential impact was contracting COVID-19 in the workplace.

“We need to make sure that those who are at work are adequately protected…that they have the right types of protection”, he insisted.

Overall, for the second quarter of 2020 – from April to June – ILO believes that working hours are likely to decline by 6.7 per cent.

Based on a 48-hour working week, this means that 195 million full-time workers are likely to suffer severely, it says.

All areas of world and all workers affected

“No matter where in the world or in which sector, the crisis is having a dramatic impact on the world’s workforce”, the report said.

It said: “Policy responses need to focus on providing immediate relief to workers and enterprises in order to protect livelihoods and economically viable businesses, particularly in hard-hit sectors and developing countries.”

An additional concern is the fact that in low and middle-income countries, the worst hit industries and services have a high proportion of low-wage workers in informal employment, with limited access to health services and State welfare safety nets.

“Without appropriate policy measures, workers face a high risk of falling into poverty and will experience greater challenges in regaining their livelihoods during the recovery period”, the report said.

It underscored that around two billion people work informally, most of them in emerging and developing countries, and that “tens of millions” of informal workers have already been affected by COVID-19.

In urban areas, moreover, these workers also tend to work in economic sectors that “not only carry a high risk of virus infection but are also directly impacted by lockdown measures”: waste recyclers, street vendors and food servers, construction workers, transport workers and domestic workers.

Highlighting the impacts already being felt in India, ILO pointed out that with its share of almost 90 per cent of people working in the informal economy, about

400 million workers in the vulnerable sector now face falling greater impoverishment.

Current lockdown measures there have impacted these workers significantly, forcing many of them to return to rural areas, ILO explained, adding that Brazil and Nigeria had a similar level of informal employment as India, and faced the same risks.

Agriculture yet to feel worst effects

Although the economic impact has not yet been felt in agriculture, the largest sector in most of developing countries, risks of food insecurity are now “emerging”, ILO said.

This is owing to containment measures, including border closures. “Over time, workers in this sector may be increasingly impacted, particularly if the virus spreads further into rural areas,” it explained.

Given the fast-evolving nature of the situation – described by ILO as the most severe crisis since the Second World War, in common with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres – the agency underscored its uncertainty about the longer-term impacts.

Much depends on the action taken by Governments to soften the blow by ensuring the conditions for a prompt, job-rich recovery once the pandemic is under control, Mr. Ryder said.

Fiscal stimulus and targeted help

Welcoming the fiscal stimulus measures already agreed on by the G20 group of industrialized nations, the ILO chief called for “much more targeted interventions” for businesses that were “viable in any normal circumstances”.

It was crucial that these enterprises were in turn able to sustain their employees, he insisted, as experience of past crises “shows just how important that type of intervention is in the longer term, particularly in terms not only of surviving, but of emerging from the crisis”.

ILO’s four-pillar post-COVID recovery priorities are: stimulating the economy and employment, supporting enterprises, jobs and incomes, protecting workers in the workplace and relying on social dialogue for solutions.

400 million informal sector workers in India will become poorer, says ILO

The COVID-19 crisis has the potential to push around 400  million  informal sector workers in India deeper into poverty, with the lockdown and other containment measures affecting jobs and earnings, an International Labour Organisation (ILO) report said on Tuesday.

India has imposed a three-week lockdown till April 14 to contain the pandemic. As per ILO, India is among the countries less equipped to handle the situation.

“COVID-19 is already affecting tens of millions of informal workers. In India, Nigeria and Brazil, the number of workers in the informal economy affected by the lockdown and other containment measures is substantial,” the ILO report released in Geneva said. “In India, with a share of almost 90 per cent of people working in the informal economy, about 400 million workers in the informal economy are at risk of falling deeper into poverty during the crisis.”

“Current lockdown measures in India, which are at the high end of the University of Oxford”s COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index, have impacted these workers significantly, forcing many of them to return to rural areas,” it said.

The report further said countries experiencing fragility, protracted conflict, recurrent natural disasters or forced displacement will face a multiple burden due to the pandemic.

“They are less equipped to prepare for and respond to COVID-19 as access to basic services, especially health and sanitation, is limited; decent work, social protection and safety at work are not a given; their institutions are weak; and social dialogue is impaired or absent,” it added.

The ILO also noted that the pandemic is having a catastrophic effect on working hours and earnings globally.




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