Despite China being Australia’s biggest trading partner, US lackey Australia has joined Trump America in its anti-China trade war and military posturing policies. China has been offended by this increasing hostility from US lackey Australia and coincidentally for asserted anti-dumping reasons has applied tariffs to Australian beef and barley with threats of extending this to Australian wine. In actuality there is massive dumping by climate criminal Australia through non-application of a Carbon Price.
In 2019 the Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in USD was $1,393 billion [1] for a population of 25.5 million [2] and a per capita GDP $54,627 (albeit quite unevenly distributed). However rich Australia ignores the huge Carbon Debt associated with that productivity. Australia has a revised annual Greenhouses Gas (GHG) pollution of 1,423 Mt CO2-e (Domestic) and 3,431 Mt CO2-e (Domestic plus Exported) [3]. Assuming a damage-related Carbon Price of $200 per tonne of CO2-equivalent [4, 5] means that Australia has an inescapable Carbon Debt of $5 trillion that is increasing at $686 billion annually and at $70,000 per head per year for under-30 year old Australians (USD)[6].
Thus Australia’s annual GDP of $1,393 billion should be inflated to $1,393 billion + $686 billion Carbon Debt = $ 2,079 billion. The ratio of Carbon Debt/GDP = $686 billion/ $1,393 billion = 0.49 i.e. for every $1.0 billion of goods and services generated by Australia each year (or exported to China each year), there is a deliberately hidden but inescapable subsidy of about $0.5 billion to be paid by future generations.
Accordingly every $10 piece of Australian meat, $10 bag of Australian barley or $10 bottle of Australian wine sold to China has been produced through a gigantic and hidden Australian Government subsidy of about $5 to be paid for by future generations because the Australian Coalition Government (with the present support of the Labor Party Opposition) refuses to put a price on Carbon Pollution (Greenhouse Gas or GHG Pollution). The Chinese authorities are presently variously acting on or investigating alleged dumping of Australian beef, barley and wine in China through Australian Government subsidies [7-9], but it is possible that even the Chinese Government is unaware of this massive Australian dumping through non-application of a requisite Carbon Price.
The Australian ABC (Australia’s taxpayer-funded equivalent of the UK BBC) reports: “First it was barley, then beef and now wine. China has Australian exporters in a spin over allegations they sold wine below the cost of production… Australian Government, winemakers and farmers deny any wrongdoing ” [9]. However it is clear that the circa 49% of the cost of production (COP) of these products due to Carbon Debt is deliberately ignored in the pricing. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) argues that introduction of a progressively increasing Carbon Price to about $75 per ton CO2 is crucial for tackling man-made climate change, and estimates that the global average Carbon Price is presently a mere $2 per ton CO2. The pro-fossil fuels, climate criminal Australian Coalition Government has bluntly rejected the IMF proposal [10], and the unprincipled, cowardly, spin-driven and electoral popularity-driven Labor Opposition has recently ruled out application of a Carbon Price [11]. The Labor Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese, while advocating a suitably far-off “zero emissions by 2050”, has for political advancement reasons stated of a Carbon Price: “That’s not necessary … at the moment, what you have is the cheapest forms of energy are renewable” [11].
In the last financial year the value of Australia’s annual exports to China totalled about A$151 billion (US$111 billion) of which about A$102 billion (US$75 billion) was due to iron ore [12]. Obviously some exports are “dirtier” GHG-wise than others, but applying the average hidden Carbon Debt as 49% of GDP yields an estimate that Australia’s annual exports to China in the last financial year were associated with a hidden, Carbon Price-related and “dumping” subsidy of about $55 billion.
Australia’s huge exports to China are at great risk due to US lackey Australia cravenly joining Trump America’s anti-China campaign. As they say in Australia, when the US says jump, Australia says “How high?” However the worsening relations between China and Australia have been associated with a re-surfacing of ugly Sinophobia that has been entrenched in a racist White Australia since the gold-rush days of 170 years ago. A US lackey and politicized Australian Intelligence is targeting elected MPs for the asserted “crime” of Chinese associations [13-15], and the Coalition Government is now proposing, with craven Labor Opposition support, to enable the Federal Government to cancel (on “national security” grounds) contracts between foreign (read Chinese) interests and Australian businesses, universities, local government and state governments. A key target in this massive economic sabotage of Australia by the US lackey and Zionist-subverted Coalition Federal Government is the Victorian State Government’s association with the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) [16]. Of course, no mention is made in this worsening national xenophobia and Sinophobic hysteria [17] of massive subversion of Australia by the US, UK and US- and UK-backed Apartheid Israel [18-20].
Because of the neoliberalism-impelled mendacity of Mainstream media, editor, politician, academic and commentariat presstitutes all of this “Carbon Price-based hidden dumping subsidy” argument may be quite new to the point of implausibility to Western readers and in particular to those in neoliberal, look-the-other-way, and Elephant-in-the-Room-ignoring Australia. Accordingly, set out below are the key elements of the argument that ignoring the price of Carbon Pollution by climate criminal Australia means massive subsidizing of exported goods and hence massive dumping of Australian goods in China (noting that this argument applies to other countries as well as dumpers and dumpees).
(1). Polya’s 3 Laws of Economics, economic externalities, damage-related Carbon Price, and inescapable Carbon Debt.
Polya’s 3 Laws of Economics are modelled on the 3 Laws of Thermodynamics of chemistry and physics, to whit (1) the energy of a closed system is constant, (2) entropy (S, disorder, chaos, lack of information content) strives to a maximum, and (3) zero molecular mobility at absolute zero (0 degrees Kelvin or minus 273.15 degrees Centigrade). Polya’s analogous 3 Laws of Economics are (1) Profit = Price – Cost of Production (COP), (2) deceit about COP strives to a maximum, and (3) zero jobs on a dead planet [21]. The success of the greed-driven denialists and effective climate change denialists in ignoring the cost of carbon pollution is a deadly and disastrous example of Polya’s Second Law of Economics, to whit deception about the Cost of Production strives to a maximum.
In stark contrast to the anti-science denialists, science-trained Pope Francis has stated: “Yet only when the economic and social costs of using up shared environmental resources are recognized with transparency and fully borne by those who incur them, not by other peoples or future generations, can those actions be considered ethical” [22, 23]. Eminent UK economist Lord Nicholas Stern has described this massive deceit over these economic “externalities” thus: “The problem of climate change involves a fundamental failure of markets: those who damage others by emitting greenhouse gases generally do not pay. Climate change is a result of the greatest market failure the world has seen. The evidence on the seriousness of the risks from inaction or delayed action is now overwhelming. We risk damages on a scale larger than the two world wars of the last century. The problem is global and the response must be a collaboration on a global scale” [24].
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has exposed the massive deceit of the neoliberal denialists in stating that while a damage-related Carbon Tax of $75 per tonne CO2 would be an effective way of addressing the climate threat, the present global average Carbon Price is presently only $2 per tonne CO2, a tiny fraction of what is needed for keeping below the 2°C target [10, 25]. Climate economist Dr Chris Hope (of 120-Nobel-Laureate Cambridge University) and climate scientist Professor James Hansen (of NASA and 96-Nobel-Laureate Columbia University) have independently estimated a damage-related Carbon Price of about $200 per tonne CO2-equivalent [26-28].
This massive corporate and political deceit in ignoring the gigantic economic externality measured by a damage-related Carbon Price has created a huge, inescapable and assiduously ignored Carbon Debt for future generations of $200-250 trillion that is increasing each year by 63.8 Gt CO2-e per year x $200 /t CO2-e = $13 trillion annually [3, 28, 29]. While conventional financial debt can be voided by default, bankruptcy or printing money (quantitative easing), Carbon Debt is inescapable – thus, for example, unless sea walls are built, cities, towns and arable land will be inundated by rising sea levels.
(2). Methane (CH4) leakage makes gas worse than coal GHG-wise and makes Australia (population 25.5 million, 0.33% of world population) a world-leading per capita GHG polluter responsible for 5.4% of annual global GHG pollution.
The Australian Government and Australian Mainstream media routinely assert that Australia has a GHG pollution of about 535 million tonnes (Mt) CO2-equivalent (CO2-e) year (financial year 2017/18) [30-35] and hence an annual per capita GHG pollution of about 535 Mt CO2-e per year/25 million persons = 21 tonnes CO2-e per person per year. However this estimate ignores land use, assumes a Global Warming Potential for methane (CH4) of 21 relative to the same mass of carbon dioxide (CO2) on a 100 year time frame, ignores massive gas leakage, and ignores Australia’s huge Exported GHG pollution from export of coal, liquefied natural gas (LNG), iron ore and methanogenically-derived meat.
Methane (CH4) is a gas, is 85% of natural gas, leaks, and has a Global Warming Potential (GWP) 105 times that of the same mass of CO2 on a 20 year time frame and with aerosol impacts considered [36]. One can readily calculate (assuming natural gas to be 100% CH4 or CH4 equivalent) that on this basis a systemic gas leakage of 2.6% would contribute as much GHG pollution as generating the greenhouse gas CO2 by burning the remaining 97.4% of the gas [37-40]. Thus burning 1 tonne carbon yields 3.7 tonnes CO2 and combustion of 1 tonne of CH4 with zero leakage yields 2.75 tonne CO2. However combustion of 1 tonne CH4 with 2.6% leakage yields 2.68 tonne CO2 (from burning 97.4% of the CH4) plus 2.68 tonne CO2-equivalent (from the GHG effect of the leaked CH4) = 5.4 tonnes CO2-equivalent. One can crudely estimate that with a mere 2.6% of systemic leakage (estimates range from 2.3-5.4% leakage in the US [41-45]), burning 1 tonne of gas generates 1.4 times the CO2-equivalent produced from burning 1 tonne of coal.
World Bank analysts carefully re-evaluated the contribution of livestock production to world annual GHG pollution, and found that the world’s annual total rose from 41.76 billion tonnes CO2-equivalent (CO2-e) as estimated by the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) to 63.80 billion tonnes CO2-e, with livestock production contributing over 51% of the higher figure [46]. A key element of their analysis was to use a Global Warming Potential (GWP) of methane (CH4) relative to that of carbon dioxide (CO2) of 72 on a 20-year time frame rather than the 25 on a 100 year time frame used by the FAO [46]. Indeed the World Bank analysis evidently still understates the GHG pollution because NASA scientists have re-evaluated the GWP of CH4 as 105 on a 20 year time frame with aerosol impacts considered [36].
Accordingly, more properly taking land use into account Australia’s revised annual per capita GHG pollution was estimated in 2015 (t CO2-e per person) at 52.9 and 116 if including its huge GHG-generating exports [47, 48]. Assuming a population of 25 million this adjusts Australia’s annual GHG pollution to 1,323 Mt (Domestic), 1,577 Mt (Exported) and 2,900 Mt (Domestic plus Exported).
Assuming Australian responsibility for gas fugitive emissions both at home and on route to foreign consumers, then Australia’s Exported GHG must be updated taking CH4 emissions and increased LNG and other ultimately GHG-generating exports into account. The land use-accommodating, revised estimate of Australian annual Domestic GHG emissions (1,323 Mt CO2-e) must be revised upwards by adding the fugitive emissions from Domestic gas exploitation (99.7 Mt CO2-e) to yield a total of 1,423 Mt CO2-e (Domestic). The total Exported GHG emissions is by related detailed considerations revised upwards to 2,008 Mt CO2-e, the breakdown being 997 Mt (coal), 33 Mt (oil), 4 Mt (LPG), 402 Mt (LNG) and 572 Mt (iron ore). Annual Australian Domestic GHG plus Exported GHG = 1,423 + 2,008 = 3, 431 Mt CO2-e , this corresponding to 3,431 x100/ 63,800 = 5.4% of the global annual GHG pollution total of 63,800 Mt CO2-e [3].
(3). Australia is among world leaders in 16 areas of climate criminality.
Thanks to the homicidal greed of climate criminal countries such as Australia, the present plus 1.1C temperature rise is already devastating Island Nations, a plus 1.2C is expertly predicted by the IPCC in the coming decade [49, 50], and a catastrophic plus 2C warming is now effectively unavoidable on present trends as Humanity and the Biosphere are existentially threatened by a worsening Climate Emergency, an Anthropocene Era biodiversity collapse, and Climate Genocide [51-64].
Climate criminal Australia is among world leaders for the following 16 climate criminal activities or parameters: (1) annual per capita greenhouse gas pollution, (2) live methanogenic livestock exports, (3) natural gas exports, (4) recoverable shale gas reserves that can be accessed by hydraulic fracturing (fracking), (5) coal exports, (6) land clearing, deforestation and ecocide, (7) speciescide or species extinction], (8) coral reef destruction , (9) whale killing and extinction threat through global warming impacting on krill stocks , (10) terminal carbon pollution budget exceedance, (11) per capita Carbon Debt, (12) ultimately GHG generating iron ore exports, (13) climate change inaction, (14) climate genocide and approach towards omnicide and terracide, (15) increasing Domestic GHG pollution despite Paris commitments to lower GHG pollution, and (16) complicity in 8 million annual air pollution deaths from burning carbon fuels, Australia’s share being 75,000 overseas and 10,000 Domestically [64-67]. Australia with a mere 0.33% of the world’s population contributes about 5.4% of global GHG pollution (including that due to the burning of Australia’s world leading gas and coal exports) [3].
(4). Australia’s Carbon Debt is $5 trillion, increasing at $0.7 trillion annually and increasing at $70,000 per head per year for under-30 year old Australians (USD).
Young Australians will have to pay a gigantic Carbon Debt that has been estimated to be increasing at US$70,000 per head per year for under-30 year old Australians [3]. Thus Australia’s revised annual Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution is 3,438 Mt CO2-e that corresponds to 3,438 Mt CO2-e x $200 /t CO2-e = $688 billion per year. The Carbon Debt for Australian is thus increasing at $27,520 (A$41,000) per head per year for every Australian, at $70,000 (A$105,000) per head per year for 9.816 million under-30 year old Australians, and at $146,000 (A$218,000) per head per year for 4.7 million 0-14 year old Australian children [29]. The annual increase in Australia’s Carbon Debt of $688 billion will ultimately be borne by these 0-14 year old children and is increasing at the rate of $146,000 per head per year (A$218,000) [29] (for relevant demographic data see [68, 69]).
The worsening global Carbon Debt for future generations is $200-250 trillion and is increasing each year by 63.8 Gt CO2-e per year x $200 /t CO2-e = $13 trillion annually [3, 28, 29]. This represents a massive and continuing outrage against the young – massive Climate Injustice and Intergenerational Inequity that demands Climate Revolution Now (non-violent, of course) [70-72]. Famed physicist Stephen Hawking has stated “We see great peril if governments and societies do not take action now to render nuclear weapons obsolete and to prevent further climate change” [55] – “now” is the operative word here because the World is badly running out of time.
Final comments and conclusions.
Climate criminal Australia is involved in massive dumping of exported goods in China (and elsewhere) through non-application of a required Carbon Price. For every $10 piece of Australian meat, $10 bag of Australian barley or $10 bottle of Australian wine sold to China has been produced through a gigantic and hidden Australian Government subsidy of about $5 of Carbon Debt to be paid for by future generations.
As science-trained Pope Francis has declared, the social and environmental cost of pollution must be “fully borne” by the polluters. This failure of Australia (and indeed the World) to apply a full Carbon Price to economic activities is grand larceny on a gigantic scale that robs the young of their future through imposition of gigantic and inescapable Carbon Debt. Globally this Carbon Debt is $200-250 trillion that is increasing each year by $13 trillion [3, 28, 29]. Australia’s Carbon Debt is $5 trillion, increasing at $0.7 trillion annually, and increasing at $70,000 per head per year for under-30 year old Australians [3].
Yet the Silence is Deafening in neoliberal, One Percenter-dominated, look-the-other-way Mainstream Australia [73]. The overwhelming consensus of Australian Mainstream journalist, editor, politician, academic and commentariat presstitutes is that China’s imposition of tariffs on Australian beef and barley is “payback” for US lackey Australia’s craven support for Trump America’s multi-pronged anti-China campaign. For all I know they may right in this instance, but ignoring the Elephant-in-the-Room of remorselessly increasing, inescapable and gigantic Carbon Debt will not make it go away. Eventually the mendacious, ecocidal, anti-science and neoliberal climate criminals running Australia will be brought to account by an indignant World, including the indignant youth of Australia.
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[57]. “Stop air pollution deaths”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/stop-air-pollution-deaths .
[58]. Gideon Polya, “ Wrong Way Go Back – Global Sectoral Greenhouse Gas Emissions Are All In The Wrong Direction”, Countercurrents, 20 March 2020: https://countercurrents.org/2020/03/wrong-way-go-back-global-sectoral-greenhouse-gas-emissions-are-all-in-the-wrong-direction/ .
[59]. William J. Ripple et al., 15,364 signatories from 184 countries, “World scientists’ warning to Humanity: a second notice”, Bioscience, 13 November 2017: https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/bix125/4605229 .
[60]. Gideon Polya, “Over 15,000 scientists issue dire warning to humanity on catastrophic climate change and biodiversity loss”, Countercurrents, 20 November 2017: https://countercurrents.org/2017/11/20/over-15000-scientists-issue-dire-warning-to-humanity-on-catastrophic-climate-change-and-biodiversity-loss/ .
[61]. William Ripple et al.., “World scientists’ warning of a climate emergency”, BioScience, 5 November 2019: https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biz088/5610806 .
[62]. Gideon Polya, “Extrapolating 11,000 scientists’ climate emergency warning to 2030 catastrophe”, Countercurrents, 14 November 2019: https://countercurrents.org/2019/11/extrapolating-11000-scientists-climate-emergency-warning-to-2030-catastrophe .
[63]. “Climate Genocide”: https://sites.google.com/site/climategenocide/ .
[64]. Gideon Polya, “How much negative carbon emissions, negative population growth& negative economic growth is needed to save planet?”, Countercurrents, 28 November 2018: https://countercurrents.org/2018/11/how-much-negative-carbon-emissions-negative-population-growth-negative-economic-growth-is-needed-to-save-planet .
[65]. Gideon Polya, “Australia rejects IMF Carbon Tax & preventing 4 million pollution deaths by 2030”, Countercurrents, 15 October 2019: https://countercurrents.org/2019/10/australia-rejects-imf-carbon-tax-preventing-4-million-pollution-deaths-by-2030 .
[66]. Gideon Polya, “Latest Lancet data imply Adani Australian coal project will kill 1.4 million Indians”, Countercurrents, 21 April 2017: https://countercurrents.org/2017/04/latest-lancet-data-imply-adani-australian-coal-project-will-kill-1-4-million-indians .
[67]. Gideon Polya, “War criminal & climate criminal Australian deception at UN General Assembly”, Countercurrents, 29 September 2019: https://countercurrents.org/2019/09/war-criminal-climate-criminal-australian-deception-at-un-general-assembly .
[68]. “UN Population Division World Population Prospects”: https://population.un.org/wpp/ .
[69]. Australian Bureau of Statistics, “Twenty years of population change”, 2019: https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/0/1CD2B1952AFC5E7ACA257298000F2E76 .
[70]. “Climate Justice & Intergenerational Equity”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/climate-justice .
[71]. “Stop climate crime”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/stop-climate-crime .
[72]. “Climate Revolution Now”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/climate-revolution .
[73]. Gideon Polya, “Scores Of Huge Realities Resolutely Ignored By Mendacious, US Lackey Mainstream Australia”, Countercurrents, 11 August 2020: https://countercurrents.org/2020/08/scores-of-huge-realities-resolutely-ignored-by-mendacious-us-lackey-mainstream-australia/ .
Dr Gideon Polya taught science students at La Trobe University, Melbourne, Australia for 4 decades. He published some 130 works in a 5 decade scientific career, including a huge pharmacological reference text “Biochemical Targets of Plant Bioactive Compounds” (CRC Press/Taylor & Francis, New York & London , 2003). He has published “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950” (G.M. Polya, Melbourne, 2007: http://globalbodycount.blogspot.com/ ); see also his contributions “Australian complicity in Iraq mass mortality” in “Lies, Deep Fries & Statistics” (edited by Robyn Williams, ABC Books, Sydney, 2007: http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/ockhamsrazor/australian-complicity-in-iraq-mass-mortality/3369002#transcript ) and “Ongoing Palestinian Genocide” in “The Plight of the Palestinians (edited by William Cook, Palgrave Macmillan, London, 2010: https://countercurrents.org/polya170612.htm ). He has published a revised and updated 2008 version of his 1998 book “Jane Austen and the Black Hole of British History” (see: http://janeaustenand.blogspot.com/ ) as biofuel-, globalization- and climate-driven global food price increases threaten a greater famine catastrophe than the man-made famine in British-ruled India that killed 6-7 million Indians in the “forgotten” World War 2 Bengal Famine (see the BBC broadcast involving Dr Polya, Economics Nobel Laureate Professor Amartya Sen and others: http://www.open.edu/openlearn/history-the-arts/history/social-economic-history/listen-the-bengal-famine ; Gideon Polya: https://sites.google.com/site/drgideonpolya/home ; and Gideon Polya Writing: https://sites.google.com/site/gideonpolyawriting/ ). He has recently published Gideon Polya, “US-imposed Post-9-11 Muslim Holocaust & Muslim Genocide”, Korsgaard Publishing, Germany, 2020 (for details see: https://korsgaardpublishing.com/portfolio/23945/ ).When words fail one can say it in pictures – for images of Gideon Polya’s huge paintings for the Planet, Peace, Mother and Child see: http://sites.google.com/site/artforpeaceplanetmotherchild/ and http://www.flickr.com/photos/gideonpolya/ .
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