Today being a Sunday, I happened to hit upon 2 gloom stories [https://www.pressenza.com/2022/01/ukraine-loitering-at-the-brink-of-doom]
[https://davidswanson.org/munich-is-not-in-ukraine-appeasement-begins-at-home/] on a world crisis smothering at the Ukrainian front, a situation that has the potential to blow out into human extinction. It seems, American politicians simply cannot understand this world anymore and their power-media brainwashing with disinformation campaigns stuporing the public equally to irrationality. There are, nevertheless, certain basic down-to-Earth facts, that say simply there need not be a war and thus stay stable, tethered to Mother Earth. Stop flying with bizarre phantasies.
My reasons for a no war is based among others on the principle of primacy of American presidency in the U.S. Joe Biden may not want to risk a war on man-made phantasies, In a post-Powell, post-Trump political relaxation time with all the CIA-machinations and scandals of all kinds and many heads fallen before, Biden is shrewd enough not to succumb to media or Intelligence manipulations, but to look more to the pragmatic, makeable-workable aspects of Reality. Here are few hard grounds to look at.
a) After the U.S. troops left Afghanistan in a bruised ignominious manner with 13 unnecessary deaths while departing, thanks to a CIA nap that led to an intel bungling Biden confessed, no sensible, self-respecting American president would ever want a worn-torn U.S. military engaged in another dogged long-term bruising involvement with U.S. troops on ground, that too close to Russian borders of all places.
b) A more favourable U.S. response in foreign engagements, which Trump also followed, is, to “bomb” indiscriminately from high above-ground, a unique U.S. speciality, like in Iraq and Afghanistan, killings thousands of innocent women and children as “excusable” collateral, and provide local non-American forces (with training) in expensive smart weapons for weapon-efficiency tests, weapons that also landed in massive amounts to the enemy’s hands as Uncle Sam’s donation and reaping just the opposite results, as evidenced in both Iraq (ISIS) and Afghanistan (Taliban).
c) The situation in Ukraine is such the U.S. cannot dominate as Russian military well-trained and well prepared for any eventuality from guerrilla-urban war to an all-out nuclear war against NATO which would be the end of our biological life on earth which no sensible European will ever want after all the losses in two world wars the last century witnessed.
d) To satisfy the GOP grandmasters to support his economic programme in the Congress Biden needs to appease them with some show of strength symbolically, i.e., through “war of words” against Russians and delivering offensive weapons to Ukranian troops either directly or through its Nato partners which nerves the Russians as the Russian military believes these could catalyse or trigger frustrated Ukrainian generals to adventure that could lead to Ukraine’s destruction, which neither Russia nor the Ukrainian people want.
Against these are other counterfactuals in operation the world public has not been aware of but is now officially surfacing from U.S. & Nato sources.
1) U.S. has been venomously arming Ukriane hitherto silently with offensive dangerous weapons (the Russians have identified them and informed the U.S. accordingly) under the guise of modernising Ukrainian army with allegedly “defensive” weapons under an allegedly deceitful proposition that Russia is planning to invade Ukraine because it has added more troops behind their borders which are its own right but an act that does not qualify to be legitimately interpreted as a true preparation for an invasion, esp. after Putin has clearly ruled it out.
2) Under change of different regimes in Kiev, the U.S. has been propping up a corrupt Ukrainian army (like they did in Afghanistan as well) and providing an occupational therapy for an aggression-starved NATO command, an organisation that is redundant after Cold War was long over, but ever since functioning as a job security for an otherwise jobless Nato-generals wanting to prove their relevance, speak non-redundancy, by seeing Ukraine as a grand challenge to jump into careless of what could follow for the long-term. But the U.S. seems bent on pumping up such invasion lies to justify its smart weapons’ dole-out to Ukraine.
3) Just too recently after Blinken-Lavrov talks ended in a stand-off in Geneva, and now with heavyweight Dr.Angela Merkel as German chancellor gone, the French president Macron lost no time to pronounce solo, in almost de Gaullean style that Europe should go its own way in dealing with Russia on disarmament with far less aggression and seek peace. I wish he succeeds, so that U.S. meddling in European security stops. But the U.S. which commands and controls nuclear weapons’ use for Nato does not want the Europeans in the dialogue, decides to go its own unidirectional /unilateral way, because it knows too well that EU countries are against a war with Russia on Ukraine primarily due to strategic energy needs from a mineral-rich mega-source at EU’s doorstep. The U.S. can impossibly serve E.U’s energy needs for the long shot at such a cheap price Russia offers.
4) Since Obama, America had shifted its priority to Asia where the economic growth is highest in this world (China has again clocked an 8.1 percent growth over the past Covid years), unlike a stagnant Europe (where the U.S. only wants to sell its goods, a good part of it is military, under the guise of providing its partners with security) and consequently any further involvement with Europe stands as waste for the U.S. interests. Additionally, the U. S. wants to contain China’s influence in Asia. So, more resources seem needed there!. Hence, the rationale, why waste time prioritising an Obama-era prejudice for a Crimea-Ukraine conflict garbage. But in extending an Obama-Times Ukraine-conflict Biden is paradoxically wasting energy to a point of ridicule. Let the Europeans sort it out. Why the U.S. needs to break its head on it? Times have simply changed.
Russian Strength Forgotten
Thanks to a powerful dominant media normal citizens in the U.S. & Europe have lost sight of two hard facts. Russia is still a Nuclear Super-Power that has an Overkill capacity like the U.S. to blow-up the Globe several times and China has joined Russia strategically (as economic partner) and militarily, which is a new constellation of forces, the U.S. has to contest and contend with. Past experiences show that sanctions against Russia will not work effectively as the U.S. vainly hoped. According to reports Russia has over 650 USD Billions in foreign exchange and can always adjust with large consumers like China and India for its energy uptake. The U.S. cannot simply sanction China, nor India (India is America’s biggest democratic partner in Asia). These two have a vast internal market and can survive many sanctions.
If needs be, as in the BRICS initiative, Russia and China could potentially start an alternative version of SWIFT for its Eurasian-BRICS-Africa-Latin America financial transactions which will cover over 50 percent of world population. When Russia mooted the idea of BRICS naïve brains in the West had a big self-effacing laugh. Today, not anymore! The same will happen when a new SWIFT gets floated and becomes a reality. Again, in such a case it is the West & raw-materials’ poor Europe who will be the sad losers for listening to a mighty-brainy U.S. to cut Russia out of it. It is time for free intellectuals in America to wake up and advise their president to act wisely and not swing along mad strings of a long past Obama predilections on Ukraine. Russia is not anymore a pre-WWII Communist nation but a 21st century mineral rich high-tech military power that has an energy ace trump up its sleeves, the second largest producer of oil after Saudi Arabia before 2021 now with 11.2 mb/d (million barrels per day) and ranking 1st in the world with 24.3 pc of the world’s total natural gas reserves and is world’s 2nd largest producer 22.7 mcf (million cubic feet) (after the U.S. with 32.9 mcf, although the U.S. has 5.3 pc world reserves only). Additionally, Russia houses several types of strategic raw minerals the European industry eagerly wants. Time to start cooperation instead of naïve, infantile confrontation that serves none!
George Chakko, former U.N. correspondent, now retiree in Vienna, Austria.