At what stage can the USA’s increasing military assistance to Ukraine become like a direct conflict-or war- with Russia? This is one of the most significant questions facing humanity today, with very dangerous implications not just for these three countries but the entire humanity.
Reuters reported on August 2 ( see news report titled ‘Russia says United States is directly involved in War’ ) – Russia on Tuesday said that US, the world’s top military power, was directly involved in Ukraine because US spies were approving and coordinating Ukrainian missile strikes on Russian forces.
In support of this assertion Russian sources cited a statement made by a senior Ukraine intelligence official Vadayan Skibitsky to British media that Washington coordinates HIMARS (High mobility artillery rocket system) missile strikes.
So as far as the Russian side is concerned, it has already stated that the USA is directly involved in this conflict. However this assertion by Russia is still only in the form of a statement here and there. Will a situation soon arise when it will make a more emphatic declaration, and then follow it up with the logical steps that emanate from such a strong and clear assertion.
This year the USA assistance to Ukraine is reaching close to 100 billion dollars, which can be compared to the less than 8 billion dollars aid provided by the USA to all of Africa in 2021. A big share of this assistance, much to the glee of giant US arms manufacturers, is in the form of military assistance. What is more, the military supplies have been changing from more defensive to more offensive. When such huge and sophisticated military equipment is supplied for immediate use, then it is only to be expected that trainers and coordinators too become involved. Hence the question arises– till what stage this is not a direct conflict and at what stage this becomes a direct conflict. As is well known, the USA and the Russian Federation taken together have over 90 per cent of the total nuclear weapons of the entire world.
The situation has deteriorated further with realization on the part of Russia that some of its military reverses are related to the use of more destructive weapons supplied by the USA backed by some training and coordination. Ukraine forces also get the advantage of satellite intelligence provided by the USA. Economic sanctions imposed by the USA and its allies against Russia are reported to be the most extensive and severe ever imposed.
As things stand today, the USA itself is least likely to declare a direct conflict with Russia as its entire strategy is based on weakening Russia economically and bleeding it militarily in a proxy war, without harming itself in an open conflict. It is a very unfortunate strategy, based on very narrow thinking, but it is there for all to see.
So the question is whether and when Russia will conclude and declare firmly and loudly that there is a direct conflict with USA and what will be the implications of such an emphatic declaration? All peace loving people of world of course shudder at such possibilities and would very much like these to be avoided and stopped.
Neither the UNO nor any of the other leading countries appear to be playing an effective role at this juncture in stopping the drift towards open conflict.
Of course the one factor which can still prevent this open conflict is the possibility of unprecedented destruction that can be caused by any direct conflict between the two biggest nuclear weapon powers. As both sides are well aware of this, it is often argued, there will be no open conflict between the two biggest military powers. But then another question can be raised regarding how long Russia can live with this bleeding.
When two sides are armed with such heavily destructive weapons, they should not just avoid war, they should also avoid coming to the brink of war. This caution has been ignored in recent times, and this should worry the entire world.
Meanwhile V. Zelensky, President of Ukraine, has stated that he foresees Ukraine becoming more like a ‘Big Israel’. This was followed by a more detailed review written by Daniel B. Shapiro, former US Ambassador to Israel, regarding the practical shape this can take with all Ukraine citizens becoming very involved with the security state. It is interesting that after retiring from his diplomatic assignment Shapiro took up an assignment for an Israeli hacking firm which involved evaluation of potential clients for invasive digital spyware Pegasus, as reported in media.
If preparations are also on for rapid militarization of Ukraine society and making it a ‘big Israel’, then we can imagine that this is likely to be done in tune with what is needed for USA’s proxy war with Russia. So are preparations being made for a very long-drawn conflict, and will Russia accept constant bleeding over such a long time?
When the Ukraine conflict broke out , predictions regarding this leading towards a world war appeared to be somewhat far- fetched, but since then, hasn’t the world moved more towards this, or at least towards a war which, even though not a world war in the strict sense, could be as or more destructive than the Second World War? Hence the urgency of stopping this entire conflict should be repeatedly emphasized as much as possible.
Bharat Dogra is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Planet in Peril, A Day in 2071 and Protecting Earth for Children.
