Over the last few weeks, February 24, 2023 was the most observed day on geopolitical stage. The famous, and posing as dignified, MSM ceaselessly predicted and propagated: Russia is going to begin a new offensive on February 24, 2023 in Ukraine.
But there was nothing like that.
A year has passed since Russia began its Special Military Operation in Ukraine. The imperialism’s proxy war in Ukraine is older, since 2014. This older part is either forgotten or goes unuttered by a section of analysts.
Guns are busy in the Ukraine battle fields, however. Civilian life is devastated in the European country. Millions of Ukraine civilians in their land and spread out in countries in Europe are going through unfathomable suffering – cannon-fodder of an imperialist war!
Disinformation dominates propaganda space as battles rage Ukraine towns and villages.
A recent New York Times report said of exhausted Ukraine soldiers.
The imperialist media ignore Ukrainian army’s shelling of civilian structures including hospitals in the regions that recently joined Russia. These bombarded areas include Donetsk, Kherson, Lugansk, Zaporozhye.
Battle field scenes and reports on the battles are age-old, regular, as happens in all wars – shelling, devastation, loss, deaths, dismembered human bodies, advances, retreats and tactical retreats.
The problem goes with interpretations and propaganda. Many turn confused as they digest imperialist propaganda, miss imperialist onslaught, and overlook developments in the wider area.
It was propagated that Russia had to retreat from Kiev. But, it was missed that Russia never claimed to occupy entire Ukraine and the country’s capital city. The Russians told: Going back from the doors of Kiev was its positive signal to facilitate negotiation, as Moscow was ceaselessly telling negotiation is the path to avoid war.
Ukraine’s enactment of constitutional provision banning negotiation, probably unprecedented in the history of diplomacy the world over, with Russia went unreported by the imperialist propaganda machine that confuses many minds including a part of the progressives.
Russia’s damn defeat that the imperialist media propagated made many including a part claiming to be progressive joyful, as they discovered graveyards of Russian tanks. Now, they find the tanks Russia sent forward initially were from the 1960s and ’70s – virtually obsolete in today’s battle fields, and Ukraine needs hundreds of tanks. Similar goes the stories with Russian guns, ammunitions, soldiers and tactics. Now, they find Russian force deployed in the battle fields isn’t the Russian regular army.
On the opposite, the imperialist camp is facing a hollowed out-stock-scene – arms depots in countries near-empty after gifting stock to the Kiev regime. In cases, a few have ammunitions for a few days or weeks if a full war begins. Their proxy warriors in Kiev, as imperialist media admits, are exhausted, outnumbered, outgunned, heavy casualties thinning ranks.
Now, a part of them, responsible and authoritative, say: it’s unlikely Russian forces would be pushed out of the territories Kiev claims as its own; the moment to defeat Russia has passed away; it’s not possible to defeat Russia; Ukraine is in a very, very difficult fight, the frontline situation is very difficult, Russia is grinding down the Ukrainians. There, from the camp supporting Ukraine, is doubt now: Ukraine’s ability to retake Crimea and Donbass.
Now, the Kiev regime talks of non-acceptance of any Korea-like scene.
Now, news come out that the Empire offered 20% percent of Ukraine to Russia.
Russia claims: no Korea-like division of Ukraine proposal from Moscow, a false claim; and no 20% offer.
Moscow’s interpretation of the Ukrainian claim of Russian proposal for Korea-like division: Kiev is now recognizing ground reality – losses in the war.
The scene appears hopeless for Ukraine. Ukraine’s hopeless condition is a hopeless possibility for its masters – organizers of the proxy war, the imperialist camp; and a part claiming to be progressive miss the imperialist organized proxy war. This progressive camp, years ago, missed imperialist war in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and found “democracy’s forward journey” in those lands. Now, with emerging reality, they feel shy and go silent on those issues.
This, Kiev regime’s not-so-comfortable condition, may create a situation most dangerous to the entire world: Ukraine’s masters may use Ukraine to use nuclear arms. A faction in the imperialist camp commanding the Kiev regime is hell-bent to crush Russia, as they have their equation with markets and prospective markets, capital flow, China, and Russia’s role and position in all these.
To some, the possibility of Ukraine’s use of nuclear arms may sound arrant imagination.
But, pattern of actions by imperialism over decades, and by the Kiev regime over a year takes away the possibility of the imagination to be baseless.
Imperialism never hesitated and refrained from taking extreme measures, and never considered human condition, rules, practices, public opinion. Examples can begin from dropping of nuclear bombs to aggressions, occupations, obliterating habitats, assassinating persons considered troublesome, and establishing lies as truths. It took steps that undermined its longtime allies and proxy regimes. It even hurt its closest allies. Examples are abounding, from Asia, Latin America and Europe.
The regime in Kiev  practices brinkmanship,  just follows its masters,  fears of going to oblivion if defeat appears definite, and  has no stake with welfare of humanity.
Moreover,  the regime and its masters are gradually increasing their stake in the conflict;  the regime was pressed to deny negotiation process; and  a faction of the masters want a longer war in Ukraine, as they imagine Russia’s defeat will make easier to wrench China’s hands, cripple and contain the emerging power, and re-impose a single pole over the world. A dangerous dream that’s!
It’ll not be astonishing with Kiev using nuclear arms, if it smells a sure-defeat, therefore. Already, a number of quarters have indicated possibility of Ukraine’s nuclear arms related moves that include possibility of Kiev’s masters transferring of nuclear arms to the authority in Kiev, accusing Russia of violating of the Budapest Memorandum, Zelensky’s threat to renounce Kiev’s non-nuclear status, reports that Kiev is working with nuclear weapons. Only a careful handling of the situation by the world community can avoid such a scene devastating for humanity.
Ukraine isn’t the boundary
The war is not limited in the Ukrainian battlefields, be it Artyomovsk (renamed by Kiev as Bakhmut), Soledar, or Severodonetsk or Lysychansk. Battles can move to farther areas.
In real terms, the conflagration of war has a wider spread, beyond Ukraine – almost entire Europe: A few places are training grounds for the proxy fighters from Ukraine; a few others are stocking places or arms depots used by the imperialists; the war is biting most of the people of the entire continent; and the entire imperialist camp has already actively joined the war. This imperialist ploy and role are missed by a section of the progressives claiming to be anti-imperialist. It, apparently, seems an odd world: While a part of the conservative camp is opposing the war, a part of camp claiming to be anti-imperialist virtually echoes imperialist voice!
The imperialist camp was planning and organizing this war for about a decade. Already Angela Merkel, Hollande and Poroshenko, German, French and Ukrainian leaders respectively, have exposed this truth: The Minsk Agreements, brokered by Germany and France, were signed only to buy time – use ceasefire to build up powerful Ukraine armed forces to carry on war against Russia.
It has also been told by responsible quarter: The Ukraine conflict has been incited by the West, the triggers of the war are the Americans and the NATO, the scale and the number of sanctions show that all of this was organized a long time in advance.
A major part of this war is going on in the economic front. Imperialists-designed sanctions-battles against Russia have not yet produced results the masters expected: Russia would crumble down within a short time.
The opposite happened. Russia is withstanding the sanctions, unprecedented, imposed by the imperialist camp, and, contrarily, many economies in the imperialist camp are having serious bite of the sanctions that include an energy crisis. Researchers at Brussels-based think tank Bruegel have calculated: European countries have already spattered $855 billion on support measures as the economies face increased energy costs. A Bloomberg report said: German government will have to allocate more than $1 trillion by 2030 to deal with the energy crisis.
It is now being told: the sanctions have been a complete failure; the EU is actually rewarding Moscow by increasing imports from Russia; effect of the sanctions on Russia is less than zero; not only the Ukraine population suffer, the US is also making Europeans suffer, everyone suffer in their daily life; it’s an economic war, from which the Americans are the beneficiaries; the Americans sell their gas to Europeans for a price four to seven times higher than they do in their own country. Eurostat data, from February to August, 2022, shows most EU states significantly increased imports from Russia; and only seven EU countries buying less from Russia, and none of these seven are major economies in the EU. The sanctions are still standing as a malfunctioning tool. Countries in North Africa and Asia have dramatically increased crude oil imports from Russia, and exporting to markets that imposed sanctions on Russia energy. A report by The Wall Street Journal said: “North African countries snap up Russian oil products shunned by West.”
More important than the war
Serious developments are there in the existing geopolitical map, which don’t appear as favorable to the Empire. This is more important than the Ukraine War. Fiercest fighting may follow there in Ukraine. But, it may happen that there’re also preparations for negotiations. If incidents secretly move to that way, fighting will be less fierce. Till then, the Ukrainian people’s suffering will increase.
Farooque Chowdhury writes from Dhaka, Bangladesh.