The 2024 general elections have ushered in a new chapter for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under Narendra Modi’s leadership. Despite expectations of a significant majority, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) secured 291 seats, falling short of their ambitious so-called “400 Paar” goal. This outcome has necessitated a strategic shift towards more accommodative politics, particularly in managing alliances. With Modi set to become the second prime minister after Jawaharlal Nehru to secure a third consecutive term, the dynamics of governance and political strategy are poised for significant adjustments.
Election Outcome and Regional Dynamics
The BJP’s performance in the 2024 elections was a mixed bag. While it retained strongholds in north Indian states like Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and Himachal Pradesh, it faced setbacks in crucial states such as Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Maharashtra. In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP and its allies won 36 seats, a sharp decline from 64 in 2019 losing the battle at their Hindutva battleground. Similarly, in Haryana, the BJP’s tally dropped from 10 to 5 seats, and in Maharashtra, it secured only 9 seats compared to 22 previously. In Rajasthan, the party’s 14 seats were far from the clean sweeps of past elections. On the contrary, the BJP made notable inroads in southern states, securing eight seats in Telangana and making a debut in Kerala. Allied support in Andhra Pradesh also proved beneficial. These regional outcomes highlight the need for a more nuanced and region-specific approach to governance and alliance management.
Limitations of Hindu Nationalism
The BJP’s campaign leaned heavily on its hyper Hindu nationalism narrative, emphasising themes like the Ayodhya Ram temple, the abrogation of Article 370, the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, and a push towards a Uniform Civil Code. While these issues resonated with a segment of the electorate, they also met with resistance in key regions. In the Hindi heartland, local issues such as rural distress, reluctance in opening up government jobs, and poor candidate selection overshadowed the broader nationalist agenda. Intense factionalism and effective social engineering by opponents further diluted the BJP’s appeal. The party’s rhetoric around Muslim appeasement backfired, consolidating the Muslim vote against it in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Rajasthan. Additionally, the shift of Dalit votes to non-BJP parties in Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, and Punjab highlighted the limitations of the BJP’s reliance on Hindu nationalism.
Challenges with Dominant Voter Groups
In states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Haryana, the BJP struggled to retain support from dominant voter groups such as the Jats. Despite these communities’ initial resonance with the Hindutva narrative, local issues and dissatisfaction with the BJP’s handling of regional concerns led to substantial opposition. The party’s failure to effectively address the grievances of these influential groups contributed significantly to its electoral setbacks.
Toning down to Accommodative Politics
The election results have underscored the need for the BJP to adopt a more accommodative stance towards its allies. Historically, Narendra Modi has governed with full majorities, minimising the need to placate coalition partners. However, the current political landscape demands a shift towards more inclusive and collaborative governance. In his victory speech, Modi’s reference to the NDA government rather than ‘Modi Sarkar’ signals a readiness to accommodate allies. Key partners like N. Chandrababu Naidu (TDP), Nitish Kumar (JD-U), Chirag Paswan (LJP), and Eknath Shinde (Shiv Sena) will require careful management to maintain the coalition’s stability.
These allies contribute crucially to the NDA’s tally, marking a return to coalition politics after a decade of majoritarian governance. The TDP’s demands for cabinet slots, the Lok Sabha speaker’s post, and junior ministerial positions are indicative of the bargaining that the BJP will need to navigate. In Bihar, the party must manage the competing interests of Chirag Paswan, Nitish Kumar, and Jitan Ram Manjhi. Similarly, accommodating the demands of allies in Maharashtra, who bring nine critical MPs to the NDA, will be essential.
Addressing Cadre Discontent
The BJP’s lower-than-expected seat count has led to subdued enthusiasm among its cadre. The party’s strategy of inducting turncoats and arbitrary candidate selection has alienated many grassroots workers. There is a growing sentiment that the leadership has not adequately heeded feedback from the cadre, relying instead on external professional agencies. Modi’s ambitious “400 paar” slogan, which proved to be overly optimistic, has further dampened morale.
Handling State Leadership
Over the past decade, the BJP has replaced several chief ministers with political lightweights, often sidelining experienced leaders. This strategy has had mixed results, as seen in Rajasthan, where internal factions and ineffective leadership have been problematic. In Uttar Pradesh, speculation about potential leadership changes, such as replacing Yogi Adityanath, has created uncertainty. Similarly, the delayed replacement of Haryana’s chief minister and the appointment of a less experienced leader have hampered the party’s performance.
The immediate challenge for the BJP is the impending assembly elections in Haryana, Jharkhand, and Maharashtra. The party’s vote share has declined in these states, necessitating a reevaluation of its strategies. In Maharashtra, the BJP will need to navigate complex alliances and internal dynamics to regain ground. Similarly, in Haryana, the party must address the concerns of Jat voters and accommodate various caste groups to strengthen its position.
In West Bengal, the BJP’s direct confrontation with Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress has not yielded the desired results. The party’s performance in the state was underwhelming, and it will need to recalibrate its approach, balancing the interests of turncoats and loyal cadre, to prepare for the 2026 assembly polls.
The Final Thoughts
The Modi government’s third term is set to be marked by a more accommodative and inclusive approach towards allies. The electoral outcomes have highlighted the limitations of relying solely on a nationalist agenda and underscored the importance of addressing regional and local issues. Effective alliance management, responsive governance, and strategic accommodation of diverse voter groups will be crucial for the BJP’s continued success. As Modi embarks on his third term, the emphasis on coalition politics and accommodative governance will define the BJP’s approach in the coming years.
Mohd Ziyauallah Khan is a freelance content writer based in Nagpur. He is also an activist and social entrepreneur, co-founder of the group TruthScape, a team of digital activists fighting disinformation on social media.
