
The most worrying aspect of contemporary world is the possibility of a devastating nuclear war. However several experts say that due to the concept of mutually assured destruction, such a hugely destructive war will not be allowed to take place. This view is highly questionable due to several reasons, but even to the extent that this holds true, there is an additional risk that needs to be considered.
This risk relates to what this writer has been calling The X Factor. All the big powers are engaged in continuous search for more destructive weapons, including AI weapons and even exploring the prospects of space warfare. In the course of this relentless search for weapons, it is possible that one of the big powers is able to come up with a game changing weapon system, an attack system or a protective system, that suddenly raises its war capability much above that of other big powers. This possibility is what this writer has referred to as The X Factor.
Once information about such a new weapon or protection system is known, other powers will also make a big effort to acquire it as soon as possible. However it will take them some time to do this. This may be six months or six years. It is this period which is called the period of maximum risk. During this period the big power which has a sudden advantage may be tempted to or even decide to take highly destructive action against it rival or rivals.
For comparison, the last time when such a maximum danger period appeared was from 1945 to 1949. In 1945 the USA had its atom bomb while the USSR could get its first atom bomb in 1949.
Once the USA had the bomb, the USA decision makers decided to use it immediately twice against Japan, even though the defeat of Japan without having to use this bomb had been assured. What is less known is that there was a proposal to use many, many atom bombs against many targets in the USSR, mostly big cities, before this main perceived rival could get its own nuclear weapons. As is well known, the USSR was till very recently a very close ally of the USA in the Second World War and had made the most important contribution to the defeat of the Nazis led by Hitler. This proposal was seriously considered although fortunately eventually dropped.
This brings out the huge dangers of the Maximum Risk period, the period between the first development of a game changing attack system or protection system by one big power and the development of its equivalent by one or more rivals.
This possibility should be kept in mind by all forces of peace so that any such destructive possibilities can be prevented if and when the need for this arises. Of course the best way of preventing any such destructive possibilities is for all big powers to give up the quest for dominance and learn to live with nearest rivals in peace. Unfortunately recent trends have not been in this direction and we have instead seen increasing hostilities. It is therefore best to prepare in advance to prevent any possibilities of high destruction.
Bharat Dogra is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Planet in Peril, Protecting Earth for Children and A Day in 2071.