Abstract
General election 2024 result shoocked the political pundits and social scientists particularly Uttar Pradesh (UP) results. The Modi led NDA alliance got sufficient seats to form the government in coalition in centre. But INDIA alliance returned as strong opposition after ten years. Despite Modi’s communal and derogatory campaign in cow belt particularly in UP and having a state government with majority, BJP could not secure the expected numbers of seats. It underperformed in camparison to last two general election results. It won — in 2014 and — in 2019 respectively. So the question arises what led such a dismal underperformance of BJP, particualry in UP where they also organised spectacular Ram Mandir inauguration in feburary this year? Secondly and importantly how voters of UP preferred social justice over Hindutva juggernaut and gave majority of seats to INDIA alliance which was campaigning save constitution, save reservation, unemployment, communalism, Agniveer policy, Farmer protest in west UP etc. Finally, how Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance in UP changed the current political discourse? The paper will engage with BJP’s Hindutva politics and idea of social justice issues led by INDIA alliance in context of general election result, particularly in the context of UP.
2024 Lok Sabha election result surprised BJP led NDA alliance. BJP led NDA managed to secure 294 seats in which BJP got 240 seats in 2014. In 2019 BJP won 303 seats alone which was more than majority marks (272) and helped them to depend less on their allies (NDA). However, this time INDIA bloc secured 232 performing better and defeating all pre-Poll predictions. In this eletion BJP lauched an ambitious slogan “ABKI BAR 400 PAAR (This time over 400)” and it was quite endorsed by the PM Modi during his election campaign. But this sloganeering backfired (due to opposition party’s constant reminder to prople that if BJP secures 400 marks it will change the constitution) BJP. It proved counter-productive particulalry in UP for BJP where the party faced significant loss of seats including Ayodhya where it built massive Ram mandir strucure hoping for fevourable election results. India alliance managed ot win majority of seat 43 out of the 80 seats, restricting BJP led NDA to only 36 seats. Withing INDIA bloc Samajwadi party secured 37 and congress 6 seats. One can argue that this is a moral and political defeat for BJP in UP as the party is in power since 2014 and 2017 in Centre and state respectively. The party has towering political personality in terms of Modi in Centre and Yogi in the state. Both are rhetorically well-versed in the communal politics. Modi for the second time chose to contest from the Varansi seat where he only managed to win over one lac vote much lower than the last time victory margin. BJP’s loss in UP is significant beacuase of another fact. For decades it centred its politics around Ram Mandir and heavily invested through communal rhetoric. Ayodhya was among the high-profile seats in UP due Ram Mandir. BJP fielded one of the strong candidate Lallu Singh from there who ultimatly lost to INDIA alliance candidate Awdhesh Kumar Pasi (a Dalit). Awdesh Kumar Pasi’s social identity and his subsequent victory was a major blow to BJP’s upper caste political posturing. His victory was also significant, a signal to the politics revolving around social justice concerns. INDIA bloc fielded candidates from all social background and signalled towards inclusive politics based on the idea of social justice. Their poll strategy in terms of PDA (Pichhada, Dalid and Alpsankhayak [Backward, Dalit and Minority]) formula worked for them and heavily impacted or countered BJP or NDA poll strategy in UP.
Hindutva Politics in UP
Despite having Modi at the centre as a stalwart Hindutva firebrand and Yogi who is fast emerging another agrresive Hindutva leader within the party about both of whom it is claimed that they deliver on the development aspect. But contrarily, UP shows a poor track record in several areas such as crime against, Dalits, Adivasi, Women, extreme violence against Muslim minority, cases of mob lynchings and mob violence. BJP leadership has been unable to deliver on the development aspects in UP. This is also a known fact that UP has been a state where Hindutva politics of BJP helped them to secure electoral benefits for years. Till the last general election took place in 2019 and state assembly election in 2022 BJP secured majority. However, in 2024 general election results BJP received a huge setback in terms of loosing more than half of the total seats in UP. What went wrong or where BJP lost the state? There is not one issue or mistake but several what one can figure out. Modi confidently pushed “Abki Bar 400 Paar” slaganeering in most of public gathering till the first phase of the election. Opposition so aptly interpreted his “Abki Bar 400 Paar” as grave danger to the constitution of the India. INDIA bloc repeatedly reminded the masses that it BJP secures 400 + seats it will alter or completely change the constitution as most often they are seen doing anti-constitution politics. Such move will severaly impact the marginalised communities, particularly Dalits, Adivasi and Minorities. from the results it seems that this fear was internalised as real by the targeted communities. Moreover, aggressive hindutva politics of BJP under which it constantly targated the muslim minority in terms of unleashing violence against them or marginalisation of their religious identity has shown its limits that it cannot go beyond. Changing the Muslim or Islamic name of the place, Bulldozar jusitce and intimidation of Muslim activists/Journalists seemed to bring fatigueness among voters because their were other more burning issues to which the government was not paying any heed. Morevoer, NDA’s backward and lower caste allies also faced heat of the slogan ‘Abki Bar 400 Paar’ which created fear among the members of the marginalised communities. Parties such as Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), NISHAD Party and Apna Dal (secular) could not performed better while INDIA bloc similar partners did quite well. INDIA bloc emplyed smart strategy in terms of distribution of tickets. It fielded candidates from major backward and lower caste communities that benefited the alliance when results were announced.
Re-imagine Politics of Social Justice:
If the results of 2024 general elections informs anything new it is the revival of identity politics which is linked to the idea of social justice. The PDA ‘Picchda (OBC), Dalit (SC) and Alpasankhyak (Minorities community) formula adopted by the INDIA bloc indeed brings back the very idea of social justice through social engineering. It effectively countered BJP’s corporate-communal nexus in the politics. Caste census, which was carried out in Bihar, has also played a role in strengthening the issue of social justice and compelled political parties to create space in their electoral manifestos. In this context, critical theorist Nancy Fraser has said that there is an urgent need to combine the equally “politics of recognition” and “politics of redistribution” to achieve the wider agenda of social justice in the age of identity politics ( N. Fraser, “From Redistribution to Recognition: Dilemmas of Social Justice in the Post Socialist Age” in Cynthia Wilett, Theorizing Multiculturalism: A Guide to the Current Debate, Blackwell, UK, 1998).
Howevr, UP results should not be seen largely in terms of ideological victory of the oppsotion party rather a relief sign which may further enable the opposition to push hindutva politics to corner in the coming years. Samajwadi and Congress through their political commitment in terms of “Nyay patra” should continue to focus on the issues of “Bahujan”. The caste census must be carried out in the state. This will strengthen the position of these parties in the state. In future INDIA alliance must develop long-term ideological strategies and bringforth caste-class agenda of social justice. This should not be seen as ‘Policy of charity’ rather a move address equal distribution of resources and recognition. The parties should also raise the issue reservation in private sector. BJP or NDA is currently suffering from a political blow after loosing Ayodhya, an imortant marker their hindutva politics. The opposition should continue to question their religion based upper caste hindutva politics. In a given political context. The politics of the INDIA alliance should go beyond identity-related issues and incorporate caste-class based agenda of social justice to counter nexus of corporate-communal Hindutva juggernaut in Uttar Pradesh as well in centre.
Sanjay Kumar ([email protected]) has recently completed the ICSSR Post-Doc Fellowship on Dalit and Black consciousness, Centre for African studies, SIS, JNU, New Delhi.
