The on-going resistance in Kenya is sometimes referred to as a revolution. This is perhaps because the hope for change from the status quo is stronger than the reality. It perhaps shows a lack of understanding of relative strengths of the opposing forces in the class war. It is indeed a class war that is taking place in Kenya today, although this aspect is often hidden or not clearly understood. That then leads to not basing one’s thinking on the reality on the ground.
It took a long time for resistance in Kenya to achieve independence from British colonialism. This period was made up of highs and lows for the forces of people. The process is well documented in Durrani and Kimani (2021). It is perhaps understandable for some to think that the current resistance will lead to success in the struggle for liberation and that the campaign for ‘RutoToGo’ will be successful and will then lead to solving all the problems facing working people in Kenya. The events in Bangladesh, where the Prime Minister was forced to flee, may have given an incorrect impression that such struggles are easy to win. But the situations in Kenya and Bangladesh are quite different and the experience in one cannot be used to understand the situation in the other. Besides, the underlying factors in the struggle there are not yet fully known, nor its final outcome confirmed.
Further, the withdrawal of the infamous Finance Bill, 2024 and the ‘dismissal’ of the cabinet by Ruto may also have created an expectation of easy victory over the comprador government. This would be a misunderstanding of the tactics used by the government, presumably under imperialist guidance. These moves by Ruto, even if made as genuine change, would not have achieved the demands of resistance. It is seen that when the ruling class, made up of so-called different parties, comes under attack, they unite against working people and consolidate their rule and continue their pro-imperialist policies. If the demands that resistance are making are to be achieved, it would require a change of the system — capitalism, backed by imperialism —that created the problems highlighted by resistance in the first place. To expect the enemy to give up so easily would be a misunderstanding of the current struggle. However much the current resistance has achieved in a short period, it should be seen as steps in a long struggle, not the end of the journey. The struggle is a protected war, not a one step to victory,
Understanding the strengths and weakness of the opposing forces
Ruto is powerful and Weak!
Ruto and his government may give an impression of being weak. But that is just an impression, created by design or by accident. Underestimating the strength of the comprador government may lead to failure of resistance before it has had time to be consolidated. Remember that the system that has created the present comprador government has had over sixty years to prepare for the resistance that is now taking place. The stages that led to the defeat of resistance in the past should always inform current and future resistance. Some milestones can be mentioned:
- The defeat of the socialist-oriented KANU party at independence which led to the birth of KANU-B under Jomo Kenyatta. This was followed by the killing of Mau Mau activists by Kenyatta.
- The defeat of the mutiny in 1964.
- Sidelining of Makhan Singh and the suppression of the radical trade union movement.
- The assassination of Pio Gama Pinto in 1965.
- The banning of the Kenya People’s Union in 1969.
- The massacres and murders committed by President Denial arap Moi.
- Suppression, jailing and death sentences for the participants of the Coup in 1982.
- Violent suppression of December Twelve Movement and Mwakenya underground movements.
The comprador governments are ruthless, as Ruto himself has proved to be. These and other actions of comprador governments in Kenya should never be forgotten. They should also be factored in resistance of today and tomorrow. The reason that the comprador regimes have survived all attempts to dislodge them are also clear. They are supported by imperialism — USA, UK and the rest of the capitalist world. This support comes in various form, but all these are backed by the use of force. The positioning of British and USA armed forces on Kenyan soil is not only for supporting imperialism in Africa and West Asia: its first purpose is to maintain control over Kenya and East Africa. The tactics of police in the current resistance were al learnt from ‘Israel’ which has used similar ones against the people of Palestine. Kenya is too valuable an asset for imperialism to let go so easily and will do everything in its power to retain its chosen comprador governments in power — if not Ruto, another similar figure. Remember Mwakenya’s call “Moism without Moi’. Ruto is no different from Moi as their policies are dictated by the same imperialist powers , IMF and the World Bank.
At the same time, it is futile to believe that resistance forces can overthrow this government at the elections in 2027. Elections in Kenya have never been free and fair, right from the time of Jomo Kenyatta. In fact, the methods of manipulating elections have become more precise and have been fine-tuned by technological developments introduced by ‘Israel’. The parliamentary way of achieving the demands of resistance is not feasible.
In the final analysis, Ruto has power — political power in terms of the parliament and government machinery, police and the army, control over social media, mass media as well as financial power. That is difficult to match for the resistance.
But all the power behind Ruto does not mean all is lost for resistance. Mau Mau faced even bigger obstacles yet won independence. The current resistance has managed to discredit the comprador ruler, its government and its system of exploitation of working class. He has no legitimacy left. The people’s power may seem weak and disorganised but it has the capability to spring surprises. The 2010 Constitution has provided further ammunition for attacks on Ruto and his government. Ruto has alienated not just the working class, but many petty bourgeoisie who have become activists supporting resistance. At the same time, the resistors, who are well educated and in command of social media, have shown an ability to take over key streets in towns and cities. Police bullets, kidnappings and murders have not deterred them from the struggle.
Power of Resistance
The forces of resistance have strengths as well as weaknesses. Their commitment to change and unity in opposing repression and economic hardship are their key assets. Learning from the experience of earlier resistance movements, they have hidden their leadership and their organisation perhaps to protect them from Ruto’s hired mobs who kill and kidnap individuals in order stem the tide of history. Yes, history is on their side as no oppressive system exists for ever. They have shown no fear in front of police murders and brutality, perhaps because that is the fate of many of them anyway.
They have learnt how to organise demonstrations and marches and use social media to carry on their planning and learning of history and tactics. They have managed to continue to communicate with their colleagues to continue the resistance.
Yet they face daunting tasks. For one, they do not have support of organised labour nor of organised peasant movements. There is thus a danger that they may be isolated by the comprador government and killed or disappeared or injured one by one. They have no organised defence to meet the organised assaults from Ruto who has time to see the resistance dwindle and die out. He can wait months or years if necessary, while the resistance has to struggle not only against state resistance but also for their daily survival. The resistance is spread around the country which has the advantage of spreading out the enemy forces. But it also means that it is difficult to get support for those under attack from a united national force.
The resistance has not openly declared its vision of a Kenya should Ruto and his system be defeated. Mau Mau declared boldly their aim of ‘Land and Freedom’. The underground December Twelve Movement and Mwakenya issued their Programmes and aims; the Kenya People’s Union sought socialism. This helped to energise and activate those who were not part of these movements. In contrast, the present resistance has not set out a clear vision that can help workers and peasants to support them and become part of the resistance movement.
The future is a protracted struggle
Expecting to overthrow Ruto in the near future is rather an impossible wish. The resistance needs to see its role as a long-term resistance movement and organise accordingly. They face the danger of being isolated by the regime and perhaps not supported over the longer period by their supporters and sympathisers.
One scenario that may lead to the formation of a strong national resistance movement made up of workers and peasants can be seen from examples of China. Imagine if all those active in the resistance today go underground and disappear from open attacks on Ruto. That may be seen as capitulation and giving up the struggle. But see what happens if all those on the streets, who are politically and otherwise educated were to join workers, peasants and marginalised nationalities as a planned move to raise educational levels and class consciousness of people throughout the country. In years to come, they can build a formidable force that can attack the Rutos of their times and have the full political and economic support from all people — workers, peasants as well as the unemployeds. This is happening on some scale anyway as study groups take over vacant lands and set up their study classes. But the future requires a study movement of the entire nation. Every school and college would become a study centre not only for students but their parents and families too. At the same time, the activists would support the struggle of survival of those they live and work with as well meet their own survival needs.
It is then possible to see a situation where some areas, particularly in the ‘informal settlements’ or areas far from the national capital of capital, Nairobi, are turned into liberated areas where forces of repression enter at the risk of losing their limbs or lives. Such, indeed, was the situation under Mau Mau. The liberated zones can then become springboards for national liberation, giving support where needed. Such an achievement would be revolutionary justice indeed.
At the same time the ideological struggle needs to be kept at the forefront. Only socialism can meet the demands of resistance. Only a just land policy can satisfy workers and peasants. There is no shame in proclaiming socialism as the aim of resistance as capitalism has failed working people in every country it has captured. That way, they stand to get support from socialist forces around the world too. The struggle in Kenya is not an isolated one. It is part of the struggle for socialism, justice and equality waged all around the world. It is easier today than was the case for Mau Mau to establish friendly links with those in similar struggles around the world.
Sounds feasible? Difficult to say. But the alternatives seem rather grim as the force of local and foreign repression unite to drown the resistance.
Plenty to think about.
Shiraz Durrani is a Kenyan political exile living in London. He has worked at the University of Nairobi as well as various public libraries in Britain where he also lectured at the London Metropolitan University. Shiraz has written many articles and addressed conferences on aspects of Kenyan history and on politics of information in the context of colonialism and imperialism. His latest book is a joint publication with Nigel Flanagan (2024): Trade Union Studies in UK and Kenya.
Some of his articles are available at https://independent.academia.edu/DurraniShiraz
and books at: https://www.africanbookscollective.com/search-results?form.keywords=vita+books
