Most people who hire fortune tellers have the good sense to treat their prognostications lightly. There is no crystal ball. Not in politics – as we have learned from the elections in May, when everyone who thought they knew it all got it all wrong. The worst guesses came from the ‘Godi media’ who stayed in till the bitter end. Good players don’t forecast the future, but adapt to it. These are the origins of the saying “keep your eye on the ball”. There are few certainties about the future: but one is that hedgehogs that make confident statements on the basis of some universal theory will persist misleading counselors in the future as in the past.
Enthusiastic political watchers are prone to making guesses. The rest keep their fingers crossed hoping for the best. We celebrate the victories and rationalize/analyze the losses. There are mere handfuls that introspect and engage in ‘Future Search.’
In Haryana, the Congress declared victory even before the counting began. Most observers counted Haryana and J&K as surefire Congress wins. Almost without exception, pollsters played blind man’s buff. The ‘Godi Media” forecast a huge victory for the BJP even though they moderated the scores as the counting went on. As recently as six-seven months ago, Farmer leaders put on hold the ‘Delhi Chalo’ march for two days after a 21-year-old protester was killed and 12 police personnel were injured in clashes at Khanauri, one of the two Punjab-Haryana interstate border points, protest sites for the farmers attempting to reach New Delhi. The death of the protesting farmers had exacerbated the already tense situation and opposition leaders with the unmistakably blame pointing at the BJP-led central government over alleged mishandling of the protest. Their haughtiness was seen once again as the enemy of farmers’ lives.
The BJP came from behind to take away Haryana. What went wrong is hard to guess. Meanwhile all the Congress laddus had been eaten and the celebrations turned into grief. But the BJP had won – but not nearly hands down- and there is hope if a ‘new future’ with ‘new faces’ will take centre-stage for the Congress. The old rhetoric and faces are musty and outdates. The Congress manifesto unequivocally argued that “Farmers do not get fair and remunerative prices for their produce, not do the producers have adequate avenues to market their produce. The problem in Haryana has much to do with a leadership that should have retired long ago. They bring no zest or new ideas and are irrelevant. Their loss is BJP’s gain because the BJP was on a sticky wicket. The Congress, in its place, had arrogance. As in the Congress, the BJP has a tired look. The rhetoric of BJP’s double-engine rhetoric must be switched off. It has been reduced into a worn-out slogan.
For the sake of peace and true development, the Centre should be giving in to the long standing demands of farmers, workers, women, and the OBCs. The farmers are demanding the enactment of a law that ensures a guaranteed minimum price for all crops. This legal assurance would protect their income and provide stability in agricultural markets. That is a fair ask and there should be no dispute on that. Kangana Raut must be left on a street corner asking that the three farm laws must return. There are consequences for that and she has faced the wrath of those who don’t agree.
In Jammu and Kashmir,the INDIA bloc won resolutely over rivals who included independents fielded by the banned Jamaat-e-Islami. The National Conference’s applied the tactic of resolute moderation on Kashmiri autonomy and the rights of the citizens. This was diplomacy in the midst of an election in the former State where they waved the flag of reconciliation and support towards restoration of Statehood. The high regard of J&K’s lone Leftist legislator, a political legend so-to-speak, Mohamad Yousaf Tarigami, enabled the alliance reap the largest share of seats in the Valley. They went further to win reserved seats (for STs) in Jammu, with a decent vote share across regions and communities.
It’s now time to lay the foundations with grit and tactically if they must make good their promises. That is easier said than done. There is bound to tough political wrangling between the State and the Centre on crucial questions. The Centre will want evidence that the Government will put down the enemy across the border. They will not settle for anything less than the hard-line. Amit Shah has quite frequently spoken up to assure people that there will be restoration of statehood. Those who wear their thinking caps have exchanged them for the optimism of hope – difficult as it may seem. The Centre never really wanted these elections and if they came about, appreciation must go to the Supreme Court’s for its dogged intervention that opened the political windows. But we are in for a time for mutual haranguing over what constitutes the ultimate way forward. With two ideologically opposed views, and other political factors, the Centre may choose to drag its feet and point to the India Bloc as the impediment. The NCP and India Bloc and other independents allies must begin a negotiation beginning with the Highest Common Factor (HCF) coupled with tangible and substantive grassroots achievements. The people must begin to feel invested in the election results.
Whatever the reasons be, there is a lull in the storm. This can be shattered if this is violated and talks are back in the equation. There is a calm that tends to be ruffled every now and then. Kashmir is not back to peace and the BJP’s imaginings of how the withdrawal of Article 370 has not come any closer to fruition. A prerequisite for a peaceful political narrative would first and foremost demand Statehood and a vibrant Assembly. In other words, democracy is reinstated and the State functions under the rubric of democratic processes. Hard as it may be, it behoves the BJP at the Centre to pave the way to rekindle the political, administrative and civic aspects of democracy in a dialogue and reconciliatory manner. The elections are done and people need to witness a bona fide and foundational change in the political realm.
Democratization will not come by wielding the magic wand and by compromises that leave the people disgruntled. This must include all the socio-economic questions that strangle the people. One could go further and call for a credible open-ended mediation team which also talks to the people. At the end of the day what will count is the culture of the talks. Were they peaceful, constructive, discards old rhetoric for a new day in Jammu and Kashmir? The transition to peace will require gradual – but not deferred – processes.
The ultimate question that demands an answer is: What will Jammu and Kashmir be and look like after 5 years?
Ranjan Solomon is a political commentator
