President Xi Jinping is visiting Kazan, Russia between 22-24 October to attend the annual BRICS ‘plus’ summit, a grouping of emerging economies founded by Brazil, Russia, India and China in 2009. In 2023, the conference was held in Johannesburg, South Africa, which joined in 2010. These summits, and other Global South initiatives, reflect a shift in the global political economy from the United States to the People’s Republic of China, and a transformation of the international ‘liberal’ order. Are we paying attention?
A multipolar vision
BRICS membership expanded this year to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the UAE. Saudi Arabia looks to join (its biggest trading partners are China and India, and it cooperates closely with Russia on oil policy through OPEC), as do Venezuela and NATO member Turkey. The list of countries wanting to join is growing-Argentina (where ‘anarcho-capitalism’ has failed to curb inflation), Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Comoros, Cuba, Democratic Republic of Congo, Gabon, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mongolia and Thailand.
The BRICS aim to forge closer economic alliances in a transforming ‘multipolar world’ to foster stability and cooperation, and also reform international institutions like the UN, the IMF and the World Bank. The BRICS have surpassed the ‘G7’ (US, Canada, the UK, France, Italy, Germany, and Japan) in terms of GDP calculated on purchasing power parity. The 2024 summit will seek to finalise details to approve a BRICS digital payment system designed for transactions across BRICS countries, the use of national currencies, and a commodities exchange system, which will offer an alternative to existing global financial networks. Why is this happening?
US isolation and growing frustrations
Despite the US’s role as the dominant ‘hegemonic power’, it is increasingly isolated on divisive global issues. The ‘Global South’ (about 90% of the world’s population) views China’s growing global role as a positive development. The UN General Assembly has voted overwhelmingly in favour of ending Israel’s illegal occupation of Palestinian territories. China’s ambassador to the UN reiterated the world’s condemnation by describing the US veto of a Palestinian request for full UN membership as a “sad day” in history.
The US’s inability to exercise any meaningful influence on global events (according to insiders within the Biden administration – e.g. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and what UN human rights experts call Israel’s genocide in Gaza) is accelerating China’s political rise and US decline. China is spearheading the Global South’s support for a negotiated peace in Ukraine, as opposed to a ‘victory plan’ backed by the US and NATO. China brokered a landmark peace agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia (and Yemen) in 2023, planning to host a peace conference in Beijing to end the Israel-Palestine War (supported by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky), and supports a two-state solution with an immediate ceasefire – positions which align closely with those of Arab nations. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is visiting the BRICS summit to discuss these issues with Global South leaders.
China a rising political power
Western analysts debate what the ‘West’ must do, whether to prioritise the ‘containment’ of China, ‘protect’ Ukraine or the ‘self-defence’ of Israel over its own immediate prosperity. Differences over these issues have hardened in recent years, with BRICS viewing the Ukraine War as part of US efforts to encircle Russia through NATO, as they and a growing chorus of ASEAN countries view the US ‘containment’ of China as a recipe for war in the South China Sea.
China is not just the world’s sole manufacturing superpower, but now a rising political power. The ongoing demise of the US petrodollar, and cuts to China’s holdings of US treasury debt, are reinforcing the shift towards a multipolar world.
Global power transformations
The Global South is merging economically, politically and militarily, where most of the world’s population and energy resources exist. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (Belarus, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan), the Eurasian Economic Union (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia) and China-Russia Strategic Partnership is bolstering China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China has signed more than 200 BRI agreements with over 150 countries.
The US and some of its allies misconstrue China as a ‘revisionist state’ that wants to politically and economically replace it. The reality, though, is that China has benefited and flourished under American hegemony. Arguably, the BRICS ‘bloc’ want to strengthen- not replace- the existing US ‘rules-based order’ set up by the US after WWII. The United Nations, with Global South support have expressed a desire to build a more pragmatic and inclusive rules-based international order, one that peacefully reflects the real international status of the major and emerging powers. US power is relying on war, sanctions, hundreds of military bases and the illegal overthrow of governments it dislikes.
Conclusions?
The Global South is acting in response to historically significant changes, namely China’s political rise and America’s decline. The global power transformations we are witnessing are defensive. Nuclear facilities and oil refineries across the Middle East and Europe are under threat by ongoing conflicts, and the South China Sea is a ticking timebomb. Yes, the world is changing, and these changes are welcomed by most of the world’s population, but the US is not accepting multipolarity without a fight. Should the ‘West’ follow Washington’s path of ‘inevitable’ conflict with China, that would spell doom for us all.
Dr. Oliver Villar teaches international politics and sociology at Charles Sturt University, Australia. His work explores international relations and international political economy, and he has written extensively on U.S. imperialism. His co-authored book with Drew Cottle is Cocaine, Death Squads and the War on Terror: U.S. Imperialism and Class Struggle in Colombia published by Monthly Review. His current research project investigates the subject of inter-imperialist rivalry in the twenty-first century. Oliver may be reached at [email protected]
