In the recent Haryana Elections, the BJP appears to be defying all the exit polls, most of which predicted a significant Congress victory. Even before the final results were tallied, the BJP’s leads and wins show it has crossed the majority mark. This marks the party’s potential third consecutive win in the state—a unique feat, considering the challenges of long incumbency. Haryana seemed to be on the brink of the incumbency factor, which seemed to have the potential to turn the table. However, The BJP’s success in Haryana, where it faced significant opposition, would suggest the party’s strength remains intact despite its underwhelming performance in the recent Lok Sabha elections. It shows how the hate still exists against the minorities in the state, which seemed to have worked for the BJP. More worrisome is the fact this win here could also impact upcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.
Unexpected Victory amid Exit Poll Predictions
The BJP’s victory in Haryana, where it faced difficult odds, would be a strong signal that the party has not lost its electoral foothold as some had speculated. After its below-expectations performance in the Lok Sabha elections, where it had to form a government with help from allies like the TDP and JD(U), many thought the BJP’s dominance was waning. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, who doubled his party’s seat count in the Lok Sabha polls, was seen as emerging as a formidable challenger. The famous Modi wave, which once captivated voters, was also believed to be ebbing. Opposition parties believed they had found a winning formula with promises of freebies, caste census, and increased quotas. However, the BJP’s potential victory in Haryana—despite the odds—would dispel notions of its decline.
The Haryana elections are especially significant as they were seen as a prime opportunity for the BJP to be unseated. The party faced backlash from the dominant Jaat community due to farm protests, and the wrestler protests were thought to have damaged its reputation in a state where sports are highly valued. Additionally, the BJP’s decision to replace incumbent Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini before the elections was seen as risky, as Saini did not have the stature of his main opponent, Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda. Yet, if the BJP still manages to win, it would be a testament to the party’s resilience and strategic acumen.
Key Takeaways from a BJP Win
A key takeaway from a BJP victory in Haryana would be the party’s continued ability to assemble winning caste coalitions, and its ability to counter the Congress’ freebies-driven strategy. The win would also confirm that the BJP’s much-discussed electoral machinery and Modi’s popularity remain strong, resetting the narrative that the party is in decline after a decade of dominance. In analyzing electoral trends, it’s crucial to distinguish between vote-share percentage and the actual seat share won by parties.
In Haryana, the BJP’s promises of minimum support prices for 24 crops and financial aid to women were aimed at countering Congress’ pledges of free electricity and medical treatment. These strategies will likely be replicated in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, where the BJP has already launched direct benefit transfer schemes, such as the Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojna, offering financial assistance to women.
Impact on the upcoming Maharashtra and Jharkhand Elections
The impact of a BJP victory in Haryana will likely extend to the upcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. It will boost the morale of BJP workers, especially after setbacks in the Lok Sabha elections, and could attract smaller caste groups back to the party. Meanwhile, a Congress loss could create friction within the opposition INDIA bloc and force them to reconsider their strategies and alliances. The BJP’s success in leveraging caste dynamics in Haryana, where it unified non-Jaat votes under its OBC chief minister, may provide a roadmap for similar strategies in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.
The final thought
Thus, a BJP victory in Haryana would not only demoralize the opposition as they prepare for key elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, but also weaken Congress’ bargaining power within the INDIA bloc. Such a win would compel Rahul Gandhi to reassess his strategy for challenging Prime Minister Modi and the BJP, highlighting the party’s continued electoral strength despite previous setbacks.
(Mohd Ziyaullah Khan is a freelance content writer based in Nagpur. He is also an activist and social entrepreneur, co-founder of the group TruthScape, a team of digital activists fighting disinformation on social media.)
