Prologue
At the outset, we must be honest in analysing the current Middle-Eastern crisis between Iran and Israel in post Gaza fiasco. Firstly, there were no sincere efforts to put an end to Israel’s war in Gaza; if there had been honest attempts to end the war to prevent Israel from retaliating strongly in Gaza, we would not be at this critical juncture now. Secondly, the key thing that led to this escalation is that the US posture has been to seek to deter Iran and any of its proxies, or any of its partners in the region, from retaliating against Israel but has done nothing to prevent Israel from escalating in the first place. The United States has maintained culpable silence and mutely allowed Israel to continue the bloodbath in Gaza, and Beirut that led to the current crisis. Earlier, the Biden administration was in a position to put pressure on Israel not to escalate, and then his efforts to stop the others from escalating would be more successful. Instead, he decided to enable Israeli escalation and protect it. Lastly, the United Nations has encountered significant challenges in addressing international law violations and ensuring civilians’ protection in conflict zones. In the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Hamas-led attacks on civilians in Israel, followed by Israel’s subsequent military response in Gaza, the UN’s actions have been perceived as inadequate in terms of holding all parties accountable and preventing further harm to non-combatants. The organization’s response has been criticized for lacking clear condemnation of perpetrators and for not taking decisive measures to safeguard civilian lives in these complex and escalating conflicts.
The current crisis presents a significant challenge in terms of preventing the spread of conflict throughout the Gulf region. It is crucial to contain the situation promptly to avoid further escalation that could engulf the entire Middle East. This presents an opportunity for countries such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Egypt to demonstrate their commitment to promoting peace and stability in the region. It is important for these countries to engage with the Muslim world and reassure them that their actions are not in support of any specific party.
Given the circumstances, it is likely that these countries will need to navigate the complex situation by allowing Israel to use their airspace for a potential attack on Iran. This decision could lead to strained relations with Iran, and it is essential to handle the situation with diplomacy and tact. Focusing on the Middle East and South Asia, it is crucial to recognize that the growing tensions between Iran and Israel have far-reaching implications for international security. The potential disruption of the supply chain to Europe and its impact on the economy of South Asia, where millions of citizens are employed in the Middle East, must be carefully considered. While the conflict between Iran and Israel is not a new development, the intensification of their confrontation underscores the importance of international legal frameworks and the role of global institutions in maintaining peace. Addressing this crisis with a constructive and cooperative approach is imperative to prevent further destabilization of the entire region.
Crisis of International law and human rights
Central to this crisis is the apparent failure of international law to curtail violations and protect civilians, particularly in the context of Israel’s military actions in Gaza. Despite widespread condemnation of Hamas’s initial attacks, Israel’s response has been seen by many as disproportionate, with allegations of collective punishment and an act of genocide. To date, around 42,000 casualties have been reported and still counting. A majority of victims are innocent civilians and children. The principle of proportionality, a cornerstone of international humanitarian law, appears to be disregarded as the civilian death toll in Gaza rises. The United Nations, bound by legal and moral obligations to protect human rights, has been largely ineffective in curbing the violence, reflecting its broader institutional paralysis, especially within the Security Council, where geopolitical interests often stall decisive action.
The inaction of international bodies in enforcing accountability underscores the broader crisis of international law in conflict zones. The failure to implement binding resolutions or take concrete steps against parties that violate human rights threatens the credibility of the global legal system. This legal vacuum fosters an environment where powerful states act with impunity, further emboldening military actions disregarding international norms.
Moreover, the conflict risks destabilizing the broader Middle East, particularly the Gulf states, which are U.S. allies and hold strategic significance in global energy supply chains. Countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar face the threat of Iranian retaliation, further deepening regional instability. As Iran expands its support for militant groups across the region, including Hezbollah and various factions in Iraq and Syria, the conflict draws in other actors, heightening the possibility of a wider regional war. This threatens peace in the Middle East and poses severe risks to global energy markets and economic stability, particularly for South Asia and Europe, which depend heavily on Gulf energy resources.
The involvement of external powers such as Russia and China adds complexity to the geopolitical landscape. Their alignment with Iran, in contrast to U.S.-Israeli interests, has the potential to escalate the conflict into a broader geopolitical struggle, leading to challenges for international law. South Asia, particularly countries like India and Pakistan, may face significant economic and security consequences, as millions of their citizens work in the Gulf and are directly impacted by regional instability. This research paper emphasizes how the Iran-Israel conflict poses a significant challenge to international law and maintaining peace in the Middle East. The insufficient ability of global institutions to effectively mediate or halt the violence underscores the urgent need for reform in international governance mechanisms to address the increasing threats to regional and global security.
Israel’s Retaliation and fear of the Arab World
The Middle East has become a tinderbox of conflicts, with the Iran-Israel rivalry at the centre. The fear of Israeli retaliation against Iran has heightened tensions across the Gulf region. The entire Arab world’s prosperity and success in deep crisis if Israel’s action against Iran spread to other countries, which seems inevitable. The Arab world knew well that Israel has a long history of conducting pre-emptive strikes, particularly against perceived existential threats like Iran’s nuclear program and military establishments. The prospect of a full-scale Israeli military retaliation against Iran, particularly targeting its nuclear infrastructure facility, petrochemicals set-up and military establishments, raises fears of collateral damage and a regional conflagration that could involve neighbouring states like Syria, Qatar, Iraq, UAE and the Saudi Arabia.
Countries like Lebanon, home to Hezbollah, which Iran backs, are vulnerable to spill-over violence. Hezbollah’s involvement in an escalated conflict with Israel could lead to massive destruction in Lebanon. At the same time, Syria’s ongoing civil war could further destabilize under the pressure of an Israel-Iran confrontation. The broader Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar, also remains on edge due to their strategic alliances with the United States and Israel. Israel’s retaliation may not remain confined to Iranian soil, as Tehran’s influence in these neighbouring states could provoke further confrontations, destabilizing the region. Tehran is well aware that this is the crucial time to get the support of its trusted allies like China and Russia. Under the present BRICS conference at Kazan (Russia), the major power of the Eastern Block may push the agenda of remaining united to stop the US hegemony in the world, and only a bipolar world guarantees world peace and stability. Iran has been almost successful in getting the support of Putin, Xi Jinping, and Kim Jong Un in this ongoing crisis in the Middle East.
Condemnation of Hamas Action
No sensible person can justify that Hamas’s attacks on Israeli civilians, it was a brutal and shameful action and undeniably condemnable and have been classified as terrorist actions by much of the international community. However, the disproportionate response by Israel, particularly in the Gaza Strip, has raised significant ethical and legal concerns. While Israel has the right to defend itself, its actions in Gaza have been seen by many as collective punishment that borders on ethnic cleansing and genocide. In this intense military retaliation, the majority of victims are innocent Palestinian civilians and children. The mass displacement of Palestinians, the destruction of civilian infrastructure, the destruction of hospitals and schools and the high civilian death toll have drawn sharp criticism globally. Israel’s military operations have disproportionately affected non-combatants, and its aggressive approach in Gaza could provoke further radicalization. The lack of a distinction between Hamas fighters and the Palestinian population has worsened the humanitarian crisis. International law, including the Geneva Conventions, mandates the protection of civilians in conflict zones, yet these principles are often overlooked during Israel’s military operations in Gaza and Lebanon. This indiscriminate use of force fuels anti-Israel sentiments not only in the Middle East but across the Muslim world, including South Asia.
The Human Cost: 45,000+ Casualties
The increasing Iran-Israel confrontation, which is made worse by the current Israel-Palestine tensions, has resulted in over 45,000 dead, most of whom have been civilians in Gaza, according to a timeline of the ongoing armed conflict between Israel and Gaza from 70.10.2023 to 06.10.2024. In the brutal response of Israel, the families, infrastructure, and the social fabric of Gaza have all suffered greatly as a result of the growing number of deaths in Gaza, which are mostly the result of Israeli military actions. The situation is made more complex by the claims of war crimes and human rights abuses made against both sides, which prompt calls for accountability and also put a big question mark on the efficacy of international law and UN-like authorities.
The scale of civilian suffering has also had a polarizing effect, particularly in countries like India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, where a significant portion of the population is sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. The civilian death toll contributes to growing unrest in South Asia, as protests, social movements, and political parties use the issue to rally support against Western-aligned policies and governments.
Inaction of the United Nations and Other International Bodies
The international community, particularly the United Nations (UN), has been criticized for its inaction in curbing Israeli aggression and de-escalating the conflict. The Security Council, hampered by the veto power of the United States, has been unable to pass any meaningful resolutions to stop the violence or provide aid to Gaza. The perception of international bodies as passive spectators in the face of mass atrocities undermines their credibility and role in conflict resolution.
The paralysis of international institutions like the UN has far-reaching implications for global peace and stability. The absence of a strong international response has allowed Israel to continue its military operations without fear of repercussions. The lack of concrete action from the UN and other bodies, such as the European Union and the Arab League, fuels further instability, not only in the Middle East but also in regions closely tied to the crisis, like South Asia.
Israel’s Actions Leading to Iran’s Radicalized Foreign Policy
Israel’s aggressive stance towards Iran has forced Tehran to adopt a more radical foreign policy. Iran, which already supports various militias and armed groups across the Middle East, may expand its reach in retaliation against Israel’s actions. Iranian-backed proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and militias in Iraq and Syria are likely to intensify their efforts against Israel and U.S. interests in the region.
Iran’s radicalized foreign policy also extends to its nuclear ambitions. With Israeli threats and airstrikes, Iran has less incentive to cooperate with international bodies like the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) regarding its nuclear program. A more belligerent Iran could destabilize the broader Middle East and force global powers to choose sides, heightening the possibility of a wider war involving Israel, the United States, and even Russia and China.
Threats to Gulf States: US Allies in the Crosshairs
As tensions between Israel and Iran escalate, Gulf states that are aligned with the U.S. and Israel—such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait—are increasingly vulnerable to Iranian retaliation. These nations, which have invested heavily in their security infrastructure through U.S. partnerships, now find themselves at risk of being drawn into a broader conflict. Iran may target key Gulf infrastructure, including oil refineries and shipping lanes, to retaliate against U.S.-backed Israeli actions.The destabilization of the Gulf region has serious implications for global energy supplies, as much of the world’s oil and gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint controlled by Iran. Any disruption here would severely impact global energy markets, causing price spikes and economic instability that would ripple across Europe and Asia.
Economic Implications: Disruptions in the Gulf’s Supply Chain
An intensified Iran-Israel conflict would undoubtedly disrupt the prosperity and peace of the Gulf region. As Iran retaliates against U.S. allies, the global energy supply chain will be severely affected. The Gulf states are crucial energy suppliers, particularly to Europe and Asia, and any disruption in oil and gas flows would have far-reaching economic consequences. South Asia, particularly India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, relies heavily on energy imports from the Gulf. Any interruption in crude oil and natural gas supply would lead to energy shortages and price increases, exacerbating inflation and slowing economic growth in these countries. The Gulf’s economic instability could also negatively affect trade routes and shipping lanes, which are critical for global commerce.
Impact on India: A Vulnerable Diaspora
India, with its significant diaspora of over 9 million workers in the Gulf region, is particularly sensitive to the potential consequences of an Iran-Israel conflict. These workers are engaged in diverse sectors, including construction, healthcare, and domestic services, and their remittances play a crucial role in India’s economy. Any escalation in the conflict could jeopardize the safety of these workers and disrupt the flow of remittances. Additionally, India’s energy security is closely linked to the Gulf, as it relies on the region for a substantial portion of its crude oil imports. A major conflict could disrupt these supplies, leading to an energy crisis and impeding India’s economic growth. India’s strategic interests in the region, which involve maintaining positive relations with both Iran and Israel, would face significant challenges in the event of a conflict.
The Gulf region also hosts over 30 million workers from South Asian nations such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Myanmar, and Vietnam. These workers are reliant on the region’s stability for their income. A prolonged conflict in the region could trigger mass evacuations, job losses, and a humanitarian crisis as these workers are compelled to return home without employment. This scenario would carry substantial economic ramifications for South Asian countries, which heavily depend on remittances from their overseas workers. The reduction in remittances could lead to heightened poverty, unemployment, and social unrest in these countries, thereby contributing to regional destabilization.
The Role of Global Powers: Russia, China, and the U.S.
The current Middle East crisis is unprecedented in many ways, as major world powers face imminent threats to their existence for the first time. The war in Ukraine can be seen as forced onto Russian soil, and Putin’s decision to take military action in Ukraine should be viewed as an act of self-defence. In the current Middle East crisis, China’s stance appears more logical and legitimate, as Xi Jinping has not forgotten what the US did against China during the COVID-19 pandemic. The involvement of global powers, particularly Russia and China, may further complicate the ongoing tension in the Middle East. Both nations have strategic partnerships with Iran and could be drawn into the conflict if Iran faces severe retaliation from Israel or its Western allies. China, heavily reliant on energy imports from the Gulf, would seek to protect its interests, especially the ambitious CPAC in Pakistan, defence, and economic partnerships with other Gulf countries and Africa. Russia, already entangled in Middle Eastern conflicts, may see the conflict as an opportunity to challenge US regional influence. If Russia and China align with Iran against Israel and the US, the conflict could escalate into a broader geopolitical struggle, drawing in additional actors from around the world. South Asia, caught between these global powers, would face increased pressure to navigate its alliances carefully, balancing its economic ties with the Gulf and its strategic partnerships with the West.
The current global political landscape is undergoing significant changes that challenge American global influence not seen since the end of the Cold War. The United States is now encountering threats to its interests in East Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. Complicating matters further, there is an increase in mutual support among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Historical parallels from the 1930s and the early Cold War suggest the potential for even greater collaboration. This could lead to forming a more cohesive bloc determined to counter and diminish U.S. influence on a global scale. Various political leaders, including former House of Representatives majority leader Steny Hoyer, Senator Jeanne Shaheen, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, have cautioned about the emergence of a formidable new anti-U.S. coalition. The likelihood of this scenario materializing is a matter of concern.
Conclusion
The increasing tensions between Iran and Israel could have far-reaching implications for India and South Asia, affecting both security and economic stability. As tensions continue to rise, South Asia may face significant disruptions, including the potential displacement of millions of Gulf-based workers, heightened energy insecurity, and an increase in radicalization. Given the interdependent nature of the region’s strategic and economic interests with the resolution of the Middle Eastern conflict, it is imperative for South Asian nations to actively engage in diplomatic efforts and seek peaceful resolutions to address the risks posed by this volatile situation effectively.
Dr. Narender Nagarwal is Associate Professor, Campus Law Centre, Faculty of Law, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India, he can contact at: [email protected]
