As the Middle East conflict deepens, the role of traditional global powers like the United States continues to diminish, reflecting a world where decentralized authority and regional rivalries drive dynamics. With major powers unable or unwilling to enforce diplomatic solutions, countries and factions like Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah increasingly control the narrative, exacerbating instability in the region. Recent developments highlight how a fragmented international order complicates the quest for peace and heightens the toll on civilians across the region.
A Shrinking American Influence
Historically, the United States played a central role in Middle East peace processes, helping broker landmark agreements like the 1978 Camp David Accords. However, as global power dynamics shift, America’s capacity to mediate has weakened. Today, U.S. backed ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas have repeatedly faltered. Despite severe criticism, the U.S. continues to provide Israel with substantial military aid, solidifying an alliance rooted in shared values and strategic interests. Yet this support limits U.S. leverage, and Washington seems hesitant to pressure Israel into concessions, especially in response to the worsening humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, which is also being repeatedly termed as “first live stremed genocide in human history”.
According to Richard Haass, former president of the Council on Foreign Relations, this situation reflects a world where “centrifugal forces are far stronger than centralizing ones.” In this decentralized order, long-standing alliances and international agreements are no longer enough to resolve regional conflicts. The United States, bound by domestic and strategic commitments, is left to issue mild reprimands rather than implement meaningful interventions. It would be worthwhile to see how American policy towards Israel would change post presidential elections in November this year.
Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Emerging Power Vacuum
A significant development in this ongoing crisis is the recent killing of Hezbollah’s long-standing leader, Hassan Nasrallah. His death creates a leadership void within Hezbollah, disrupting a powerful non-state force and weakening optics for Iran, its primary sponsor. Hezbollah has long served as an effective deterrent to Israel and as a key ally for Iran. Without Nasrallah, Hezbollah faces an uncertain future, which may impact Iran’s influence in Lebanon and the broader region. Iran, already cautious about sparking a full-scale conflict, now faces internal challenges and may have to recalibrate its approach to its Middle East alliances. This loss of leadership could reshape Hezbollah’s tactics or create a power struggle that sparks regional conflict, adding to the growing instability in the Middle East. This shifting power dynamic illustrates the precarious balance in the region, where influential leaders are few, and the risk of fragmentation is high.
Regional Inaction and a Passive Global Community
The diminished influence of global powers in the Middle East is exacerbated by the reluctance of other key players to act. While Russia and China benefit from a weakening American influence, they lack the strategic interests to mediate peace. As Russia remains engaged in its war in Ukraine, supported by Iranian military technology, its involvement in the Middle East remains limited. China, focused on energy security, similarly avoids assuming a proactive peacemaking role. This passivity creates a diplomatic vacuum that allows regional actors to proceed with limited external pressure. Regional powers, constrained by their own challenges, are also hesitant to engage. Egypt, for instance, fears a refugee crisis, while Saudi Arabia, though advocating for Palestinian rights, stops short of direct involvement. Qatar, as revealed in reports, has funneled resources to Hamas, enabling it to build extensive tunnels and infrastructure that complicate ceasefire efforts. As a result, global disunity and regional hesitance leave Gaza and Israel without a powerful, unifying voice for peace.
The Cost of Political Stalemate on Civilian Lives
Within this political vacuum, the humanitarian crisis grows dire. The United Nations has struggled to intervene effectively, hindered by vetoes from the United States on Israel-related resolutions and from Russia on Ukraine-related matters. Recently, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned what he termed the “collective punishment” of Palestinians, sparking further tensions with Israel. But these words echo without consequence in a fragmented world, failing to alleviate the suffering of civilians who bear the brunt of this relentless conflict.
In Israel, public support for peace is also faltering as PM Benjamin Netanyahu faces scrutiny over the prolonged conflict and his handling of internal crises, including corruption charges. Netanyahu’s reluctance to compromise prolongs the conflict, a tactic critics argue diverts attention from his domestic issues. Meanwhile, with the assasination of Hamas’s leader Yahya Sinwar, Israel faces continued pressure to de-escalate in GAZA, But on a contrary, Netanyahu is on a killing drive, effectively wiping out the north Gaza under the “generals Plan”. Netanyahu finds in this conflict a path to consolidate power, but at tremendous human cost.
The Uncertain Future of Peace
The current state of Middle East diplomacy underscores a harsh reality: the institutions and powers that once governed international peace processes are struggling to adapt. Unfortunately, the International Humanitarian Law is not working, and hence, we are here, facing collective shame of humanity. The weakened influence of the U.S., the inaction of other major powers, and the fragmentation within the region all underscore the limits of a fractured international order in solving complex, deep-rooted conflicts.The Summit of the Future, a recent gathering of diplomats and UN officials, failed to achieve meaningful reforms in the UN Security Council, leaving the veto power of permanent members unchecked and weakening humanitarian intervention.
In this “age of turbulence,” as some analysts term it, the Middle East conflict reveals the inadequacies of existing institutions and the absence of decisive global leadership. With no consensus or coherent strategy for peace, the conflict is likely to continue, exacting a heavy toll on the people it affects most: the civilians trapped in an increasingly volatile region.
Shariq Us Sabah is a published writer, and is interested in the Middle East Regional and its foreign policy. He can be contacted at [email protected]
