With the taming of Lebanon, the US backed Lebanon/Hezbollah- Isreal ceasefire has successfully delinked Hezbollah- Isreal relations from the Palestinian question.
Now the focus of Netanyahu’s everlasting wars have shifted to Syria, which has significant presence of Iranian assets.
Iran views Hezbollah, Ansar Allah and assets in Syria and Iraq as an axis of resistance against US led collective West and their proxy– Isreal. By successfully maneuvering Hezbollah into affirming a US brokered ceasefire, even when IDF wasn’t making much headway in southern Lebanon, USA has successfully pulled Isreal from a land conflict where Isreal was bleeding from a thousand cuts.
Western media is hailing this as a step towards a ceasefire and hostage deal between Isreal and Hamas. However, the events that followed, even before the ink was dry on the 60 day ceasefire, belie such summation. Immediately upon the signing of the Isreal- Lebanon ceasefire military action shifted to Syria.
Israel conducted strikes on the Syrian border with Lebanon on 27 November 2024, hours ahead of the ceasefire with Lebanon. Of course, Isreali attack on Syria is not surprising in itself. Israel has conducted hundreds of strikes on Syria in recent years, and intensified its air raids since the war with Hezbollah escalated in September 2024. Several commentators have concluded that the attack on Lebanon-Syrian border was to block attempts by Iran, Hezbollah and the Syrian army to transfer weapons to Lebanon. Indeed, even the Isreali leadership has stated this to justify the attack on Syrian border.
However, there seems to be a much larger strategy and coordination behind the racheting up of attacks on Syria. On 27 November 2024, the day when Isreal bombed Lebanon-Syria border, a coalition of anti-Assad regime forces attacked Aleppo. This is the first land incursion by the Hyat Tahrir al-Shan led coalition of anti-Assad regime forces capturing settlements in Syria, since the signing of a ceasefire in March 2020.
That US backs the anti-regime coalition is well known. Even Turkiye, a NATO member, backs the anti-Assad regime coalition forces. That, the coalition had succeeded in pushing Assad regime on the backfoot till Russia interceded in favour of Assad is seen as a turning point in US-Russia tussle over carving out sphere of influence. Indeed, support from Russia and Iran pulled the Syrian chestnut out of fire.
Syria, therefore, is not only an important link in the Iran led axis of resistance but also a practical demonstration of the efficacy of Russo-Iranian ties. The military push by the US-Turkiye backed anti-Assad regime coalition is putting this to test. A Newsweek report dated 28 November 2024 states that the rebel coalition attacked Al-Nayrab airport east of Aleppo, where pro-Iranian militias are reported to have outposts. Russian forces were also attacked in the rebel groups launched military operation.
Evidently, Iranian network of proxies and allies are facing attack. There seems to be a coordinated and calculated effort to weaken Iranian proxies and allies to pressure them into disengaging with the Palestinian question. The consequent weakening of the network proxies will isolate Iran and restrict it’s ability to maneuver. Such isolation of Iran will reduce its power to significantly determine the fate of US brokered ceasefire between Isreal and the members of axis of resistance.
To keep the long story short, Isreal-Lebanon ceasefire and the attack on Syria are part of a larger strategy to secure Isreal from a coordinated attack from Iran supported proxies. It is also an attempt to push the Palestinian question to the margins of West Asian diplomatic chessboard to West Asia for a Abraham Accords laid framework of resolving the question of Palestinian statehood. If US and the collective West succeed in their objectives, Iran may be expected to face it’s toughest diplomatic challenge once Trump takes the reign of the US regime.
Kumar Sanjay Singh, Associate Professor, Department of History, Swami Shraddhanand College, Delhi University.
