Politicking witnessed in Maharashtra’s political camp of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies may be viewed as a sign of tussle frustrating them over scramble for chief minister’s position as well as much desired ministries in the state cabinet. In all probability, BJP had hoped that it would win more than 50 percent seats of the 288-member state assembly. The party has won 132 seats out of the 149 seats it contested from. Had it won more than 144 seats, securing majority, the situation would have been different at present. There is no denying that BJP’s success, though partial, also stems from its strategies having succeeded in creating splits within Shiv Sena (SS) and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). Against this backdrop, Eknath Shinde apparently has “legitimate” ground to show tantrums that he began soon after results were declared.
The political reality of Shinde taking office as Maharashtra Chief Minister soon after Uddhav Thackeray had to quit office following split in his party and loss of majority in Assembly cannot be missed. This strongly suggests that Shinde and his supporters had eyes on this chair for him when they allied with BJP for the Assembly polls. This is also marked by their giving the example of Bihar where Nitish Kumar is the chief minister despite his party – Janata Dal-United (JD-U) having lesser seats (48) than BJP (84) in the 243-member assembly. Here, it may be noted, JD-U won more seats in Lok Sabha elections (12) than SS (7) and thus probably bears more importance for BJP than SS does. Besides, Bihar is scheduled to go for assembly polls in the coming year.
At present, BJP cannot probably afford to ignore alliance with Nitish Kumar in Bihar. The fact that BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) faces a much stronger opposition in Bihar than it seems to in Maharashtra cannot be sidelined. In 2020 Bihar Assembly polls, the leading opposition party, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) won 75 seats. The NDA won 125 seats against the 110 won by India-bloc, including RJD, Congress and other parties. Besides, in Bihar, without alliance with JD-U, BJP would not be in power. The BJP won 84 seats in 2020 and JD-U secured 48 in 243-member Assembly. In Maharashtra, even if Shinde chooses not to join government, BJP has enough seats to hold reins of power with support of NCP which has won 41 seats. The BJP is short of just 13 seats to head the government. Whereas in Bihar, it was 38 seats short of the needed majority and thus had no option but yield to Nitish Kumar. There was also the risk of Kumar joining ranks of rival bloc to head the government and thus pushing BJP to opposition. The alliance of opposition had 105 seats in the assembly, remaining only 17 seats short to form the majority. In other words, despite securing lesser seats than BJP in Bihar Assembly, Kumar had the necessary number to exercise political cards to either help the former be in power or force it to benches of opposition. Shinde does not enjoy this strength at present.
Even if Shinde joins rank of rival parties, they would remain short of needed majority unless of course Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) also joins them. Prospects of this development may be viewed at present as fairly dim. Against limited political options, there would be nothing or perhaps is surprising about Shinde agreeing for the post of deputy chief minister. This may be viewed as better than choosing to remain without any portfolio and/or supporting the state government from outside. The two other options carry the risk of Shinde diminishing his own political stature within state politics. Prospects of this prompting his own supporters to change political camps, by probably joining BJP cannot be ignored. Even if they don’t at present, chances of their being convinced to do so in near future by BJP leaders cannot be ignored. BJP may be viewed as quite an expert at strategy of first displaying friendly ties with regional parties and then politicking to weaken them through various ways leading to their political strength being reduced. Shinde may have been a part of this strategy when he was made the state chief minister after he and other SS members chose to rebel against Thackeray. Shinde played the cards then desired by BJP with his eyes on the key chair. He secured it then. But the game-plan is no more in his favor. Rather, he seems to have been cornered in the domain of which he once appeared to have command. Now that BJP is in a fairly comfortable position in Maharashtra Assembly, the party can afford not to yield to Shinde’s tantrums.
Shinde has certainly been placed in quite an uncomfortable political spot, which he cannot probably ever claim to be satisfied with or even come to terms with. There is apparently a symbolic linkage between his political discomfort and his rushing frequently to hospital for “medical” reasons ahead of the swearing-in ceremony of Maharashtra Chief Minister. Numerically, BJP can afford to move ahead without SS but is probably not considering this option at present. The BJP doesn’t apparently want to create negative impression of any of its key allies being disillusioned with its politicking. The party leaders do not want their grand show of the swearing-in ceremony be hampered by any tantrum from their allies, including their “medical” problems. Besides, as reports indicate, Shinde may have been convinced of leaving the CM’s key chair, but remains insistent on his party being accorded a few key portfolios. In other words, the political tussle/bargaining in Maharashtra is not likely to end with swearing-in ceremony. This also implies, it may take a few more days before this state government starts functioning actually as a government. The grand show of the swearing-in ceremony may be viewed as only an attempt to display the political prowess of BJP and its allies in Maharashtra. But till the state government begins working as one, it’s importance would remain just that of a show!
Nilofar Suhrawardy is a senior journalist and writer with specialization in communication studies and nuclear diplomacy. She has come out with several books. These include:– Modi’s Victory, A Lesson for the Congress…? (2019); Arab Spring, Not Just a Mirage! (2019), Image and Substance, Modi’s First Year in Office (2015) and Ayodhya Without the Communal Stamp, In the Name of Indian Secularism (2006).
