Earth is universally identified as predominantly the planet of human beings, but actually human beings in their present form have a history of probably just about 0.1 million years (or at the most 0.4 million years if the remotest ancestors of humanity are to be included), while dinosaurs lived on earth for about 165 million years.
Despite living on earth for so long, ultimately they became extinct not because of any problems relating to them but in all probability due to an external factor like a comet or an asteroid hitting the earth. In the case of the human species, however, it has managed at a much, much earlier stage of its arrival to create conditions of its own making due to which the human beings as well as most other species have been badly threatened and the life-nurturing conditions for all these species including human species have been seriously endangered.
Scientists may differ on when exactly humanity reached this stage of threatening most forms of life and their life-nurturing conditions, but perhaps we can mark the start of this era from the day of the Hiroshima bombing or the ‘successful’ testing of the nuclear bomb a little earlier. If so, and taking a generation to be of about 25 years, three generations have already lived under the threat of most life and its nurturing conditions being endangered.
So the history of these 8 decades 1945-2024 is a of a very unique stage in the history of not just humanity but in fact in the entire history of all life on earth, in the sense that for the first time it is in these 80 years that an earth species by its own actions has seriously threatened the life-nurturing conditions for itself as well as for most other species on earth. This is the most significant, the most defining, the unique and unprecedented feature of the history of the last 8 decades.
As these decades progressed, the life-threatening conditions continued to worsen. There were some moments or even longer periods of achievements when it appeared that some credible steps to slow if not stop or reverse the increasing dangers to life and life-nurturing conditions were being taken, but these achievements or signs of hope were not sustained. Instead, often these were overwhelmed by more adverse factors.
A few years back one of the foremost experts on species loss, Harvard Professor Edward O. Wilson wrote, ‘on the land at least on a worldwide basis, species are vanishing 100 times faster than before the arrival of Homo sapiens.”
Johan Rockstrom and 26 other scientists, writing in a widely acclaimed research paper on planetary boundaries, stated, “…Currently about 25% of species in well-studied taxonomic groups are threatened with extinction.”
Even all this pales into relative insignificance compared to the increasing threat of nuclear weapons, and the resulting nuclear winter. By increasing threat we do not mean ‘most likely’ let alone ‘inevitable’, but if in recent times, say the last 3 years, this threat has increased from about 5% to about 10% or 15% then this too is extremely worrying. Use of about 5 to 10% of the stock of about 13000 nuclear weapons can end most life. Less sudden but still extremely serious is the impact of about a dozen or so very serious and inter-related environmental problems. Moves towards space warfare and increasing use of AI in weapons are some of the other serious life-threatening factors.
The overall history of the last 80 years is on the whole a story of the increase of these existential threats. This may be the most important feature of these times but it has not received the attention resulting from such recognition, and certainly not the adequacy of remedial efforts resulting from such attention.
It will be a great achievement if in the coming years people’s movements, and in particular movements of youth, concerned deeply about the safety of the world in which their generation will grow up and their children will grow up, can create the conditions in which the remedial actions to resolve the existential crisis, taken within a framework of justice and peace, can become the foremost priority for humanity. Already three generations have passed under the shadow of the existential crisis; no further time should be lost in coming to grips with the highest priority issues.
Bharat Dogra is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Planet in Peril, Protecting Earth for Children, Man over Machine and A Day in 2071.
