It is great listening to politicians’ “commitment” to ensure, usually money loaded schemes, for the welfare of electorate, if they succeed in forming the government. This trend is always most visible, naturally when elections are around the corner. With Delhi Assembly polls scheduled for February 5, politicians in the fray have begun displaying this trend. Of course, there is nothing surprising about this. However, this year, Delhi’s political drama appears to be accompanied by a new twist. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seems primarily engaged in targeting Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader Arvind Kejriwal. There is no denying that Kejriwal’s standing in Delhi Assembly Polls is fairly strong. He has been the Delhi chief minister from 2012-13 and for two consecutive terms from 2015-2024. Statistically, the chair has been held by him for less than period of three terms, though formally for three. When first elected to power, he resigned after just a few weeks. Delhi was placed under President’s Rule for a year, following which elections were held and he was re-elected. This point is being specifically made as temporally, he has not held the office for 15 years or three consecutive terms. But yes, his team and sections of media are giving importance to prospects of his returning to power for fourth term and thus breaking his predecessor Sheila Dikshit’s record, who held the office for three consecutive terms, from 1998 to 2013- 15 years.
A highlight of Kejriwal’s electoral campaign is clearly its marketing strategy, which is greatly dependent on his team’s ability in convincing voters in general about his being a successful as a chief minister, which naturally prompted voters to give him “three” terms in power. Yes, voters seem to be fairly convinced about his being “successful” living up to few of his “commitments” regarding education in government schools, health services, rates of water as well as that of electricity. These certainly matter a lot for majority, particularly those who cannot afford private schools and health services; those strongly affected by inflation; lack of employment opportunities and similar economic woes.
Undeniably, politicians and parties in fray-including Kejriwal and other AAP members- have not refrained from trying their hand at religious moves to attract particularly the Hindu voters. The same reason has apparently prompted them from keeping their distance or at least not displaying their attempt to attract voters of minorities. Statistically, given that Muslims constitute less than 20% of Delhi’s population, Kejriwal has his “marketing” reasons to be more concerned about the Hindu vote. Speculations have been voiced about this spelling a decline in Muslim votes earlier received by AAP and instead being secured by Congress. While such a possibility cannot be ignored, the reality that “religious” drives of politicians- irrespective of their party affiliations- are primarily a part of their electoral strategy is well understood by voters in general. This partly explains the failure of BJP to return to power with majority despite its usage of Ayodhya-card in grand style. Voters, as rudimentary survey indicates, are primarily concerned about economic language used by rivals in the fray.
In this context, the noise being made by BJP leaders about Kejriwal’s “Sheesh Mahal,” targeting him for having used people’s money to decorate the official residence of chief minister is least likely to have any significant impact on voters as they are likely to view this as nothing but a political attempt to dissuade voters from supporting AAP. Elementarily speaking, why wasn’t this issue raised earlier? This also suggests, Kejriwal’s marketing strategy of reaching out to voters for Delhi Assembly polls appears to have greater strength than that of BJP. Now, an equally significant question is, where does this place Congress? Clearly, Congress has fared quite poorly since 2013 in Delhi Assembly polls. In view of the party’s performance having improved considerably in 2024 parliamentary polls, can it be expected to do better in Delhi Assembly elections too? Certainly, to a degree. The party is also trying its hand at promising welfare measures. Interestingly, even BJP is using similar, welfare-oriented, strategy. The three parties are well aware that Kejriwal’s “success” cannot be delinked from AAP-government’s welfare-schemes having appeal for people in general. So their electoral marketing is naturally trying the same strategy.
The general opinion is that against Kejriwal’s appeal, BJP may not succeed despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi going all out to appeal to voters. Prospects of Congress may be limited to it displaying a better performance than it did earlier.
There is another angle to this hi-fi electoral drama which cannot be missed. These polls seem to be a stronger fight between BJP and AAP. During the preceding Delhi polls, BJP’s silent motive was apparently to ensure a defeat for Congress. It probably had no qualms about AAP winning as long as Congress failed to return. The same motive was probably in Punjab Assembly elections. But now with Kejriwal assuming greater political strength than expected and as per most calculations, Congress figuring nowhere in Delhi polls, BJP has directed its political missiles against the former. Interestingly, in most assembly elections Kejriwal appears to have displayed no qualms in turning against Congress, whether his party has any standing or not in that domain. That may be partly responsible for Congress facing defeat. This happened in Haryana, where Congress lost to BJP with less than a percentage of votes. Political results may have been different if AAP had not fielded candidates from 89/90 seats. The party managed barely 1.53% votes. Indirectly, Kejriwal appears to have played role desired by BJP- that of diminishing political strength of Congress in few areas, including Delhi, Haryana and Punjab. Now, Congress is not its key rival in Delhi Assembly polls, as per BJP’s assumption and most views.
In the preceding two polls, though BJP failed to win even ten seats in the 70-member Delhi Assembly, it won more than 30% votes. Congress failed to win any seat and got less than five percent votes in 2020 and not even 10 percent in 2020. Now, certain key factors need to be given consideration. The fact that Congress has succeeded in projecting a better image of itself than it was a decade ago cannot be side-lined. Its role in BJP’s failure to return to power at the centre with a majority cannot also be dismissed. True, BJP and AAP are viewing only each other as key rivals. Prospects of Congress playing a spoilsport for both parties in certain areas, however, cannot be ignored. The one advantage that Congress appears to have are strong signs of its Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit having contributed tremendously to development of Delhi, which include its network of flyovers, the metro-system, the CNG, setting up numerous health facilities, several schools and colleges with focus on quality of education, sanitation and more. She transformed Delhi into a modern, global city. Voters are certainly not unconscious of this political reality. Quite a few have not refrained from commenting on Kejriwal having tried to continue policies of Dikshit.
At present, both BJP-banking on Modi and AAP on Kejriwal seem to be a little too over-confident about giving each other a good fight in Delhi’s polls. Perhaps, some importance should be given to the reality that over-confidence banking on claims and rhetoric, giving little importance to people’s grievances as well as expectations, does not at times yield the desired results. Yes, BJP is least likely to succeed in diminishing Kejriwal’s political appeal. At the same time, opinions being expressed against problems such as over-flooded sewers, limited or no water supply, bad roads and so forth in certain parts may play their part in preference displayed by voters against Kejriwal. And herein is perhaps Congress maybe supported. Perhaps. Understandably, parties expert at strategies in fielding independent candidates or those from smaller parties are likely to try this for division of votes and secure better results for their own candidates. Rudimentary survey suggests that voters are now well aware of this strategy and are least likely to be entrapped by it. This suggests that overconfidence being displayed by AAP and BJP is certainly receiving ample attention by their respective parties and media, but may just fall short of receiving the desired attention from voters. Who knows, for both, Congress may not win, but may certainly play the spoilsport for both. Who knows. Overconfidence laced with rhetoric of both -BJP as well AAP – is definitely set to face the key electoral test!
Nilofar Suhrawardy is a senior journalist and writer with specialization in communication studies and nuclear diplomacy. She has come out with several books. These include:– Modi’s Victory, A Lesson for the Congress…? (2019); Arab Spring, Not Just a Mirage! (2019), Image and Substance, Modi’s First Year in Office (2015) and Ayodhya Without the Communal Stamp, In the Name of Indian Secularism (2006).
