Gaza (Quds News Network)- The Palestinian Health Ministry in Gaza has endorsed the findings of a study published in The Lancet, which estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of Israel’s assault was approximately 40% higher than the figures officially reported by the Ministry.
Dr. Munir al-Bursh, the director of the Ministry, stated that they largely agree with the study’s findings, “particularly as it employs a precise and well-established scientific methodology that has been used to document casualty figures in past atrocities, such as those in Rwanda, Bosnia, and others.”
In a post on X, al-Bursh added that the Ministry “has repeatedly stated that we face significant challenges in accurately counting the number of martyrs due to several factors, most notably the simultaneous massacres by the Israeli occupation in multiple locations, as well as the occupation forces preventing our medical teams from reaching many areas, particularly in the northern Gaza Strip.”
He stated that, despite these challenges, the Ministry of Health remains committed to ensuring the accuracy of its statistics. “We only record cases after thorough verification,” he explained.
“Additionally, we do not include missing persons in our statistics, even if relatives confirm their existence, to ensure the data we provide is reliable and based on verified facts.” This commitment, he emphasized, is intended to maintain the credibility of the information shared, despite the Ministry’s awareness that the actual numbers may be much higher than those reported.
A study published in The Lancet estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of Israel’s assault was about 40% higher than the numbers reported by the Palestinian Health Ministry.
The study, published on Friday, draws on data from the Palestinian Ministry of Health, its online survey and social media obituaries.
The peer-reviewed statistical analysis was conducted by academics at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Yale University and other institutions, using a statistical method called capture-recapture analysis.
The study estimates that between 7 October 2023 and 30 June 2024, between 55,298 and 78,525 Palestinians died from “traumatic injuries”.
By 30 June, the ministry had reported a death toll of 37,877.
The study’s best estimate puts the number of deaths at 64,260 by that date, representing nearly 3 percent of Gaza’s pre-war population.
It also found that 59 percent of those killed were women, children and elderly people.
However, The Lancet figures do not account for deaths caused by lack of medical care, food shortages or those believed to be buried under rubble.
Earlier this week, the Palestinian health ministry reported that the death toll had surpassed 46,000 since the war began on 7 October.
A letter published in The Lancet in 2024 by a group of experts estimated that the actual death toll of Palestinians in Gaza could exceed 186,000.
At that time, the official death toll, according to the Palestinian health ministry, was 38,153.
The letter stressed that this figure was likely a significant underestimate, as it excluded thousands of people believed to be buried under rubble and the growing number of “indirect” deaths caused by the destruction of Gaza’s food distribution, healthcare and sanitation systems.
“The total death toll is expected to be large given the intensity of this conflict; destroyed healthcare infrastructure; severe shortages of food, water, and shelter; the population’s inability to flee to safe places; and the loss of funding to Unrwa, one of the very few humanitarian organisations still active in the Gaza Strip,” the letter said.
The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) estimates that, on top of the official death toll from the health ministry, another 11,000 Palestinians are missing and presumed dead.
“We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital,” said Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and the lead author of the study.
“Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed,” Jamaluddine told Agence France-Presse.
The Lancet study said the Palestinian health ministry’s capacity for maintaining electronic death records had previously proven reliable, but deteriorated under Israel’s military campaign, which has included raids on hospitals and other healthcare facilities and disruptions to digital communications.
Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.
Ball told AFP the well-tested technique had been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached “a good estimate” for Gaza.
Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain’s Open University, said there was “inevitably a lot of uncertainty” when making estimates from incomplete data, but it was “admirable” that the researchers had used three other approaches to check their estimates.
