
After 15 months into the bloody war, Israel and Hamas have finally ironed out a delayed but much awaited ceasefire and hostage release deal brokered by Qatar, Egypt and the United States (US), after months of negotiations. The Israeli cabinet approved the deal on January 18, paving the way for the return of hostages and bringing a halt to 15 months of conflict that have devastated the Gaza strip. Twenty-four ministers voted in favour of the deal and eight opposed. A day before, the Israeli security cabinet recommended ratifying the deal, saying it “supports the achievement of the objectives of the war”. The ceasefire will come into effect at 8.30am Gaza time (6.30am GMT) on January 19.
However, the far-right groups in the Israeli government such as the Jewish Power party, led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, and the Religious Zionist Party, headed by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich were deadly against the ceasefire deal, resulting in delay in its approval by the full cabinet, whose contours were finalised last May. They have been accused of being more interested in a permanent occupation of Gaza than in the release of the hostages. They fear that yielding to Hamas’s demands could endanger Israeli security once again, potentially leading to a “second October 7”. Itamar Ben-Gvir even threatened to resign should a deal be approved, insisting that Hamas should never be negotiated with. Some Israelis have even approached the high court against the deal, which is very unlikely to intervene.
Egypt, Qatar and the US have been trying to mediate for almost a year to end the war sparked by Hamas’ attack on Israel in October 2023 resulting in the deaths of 1,210 Israeli, mostly civilians and abducting 250 people as hostages. Previously, the two sides were close to clinching a peace deal many a time only to hit last-minute obstacles. Israel’s retaliatory campaign in Gaza killed 46,707 people, most of them civilians, and displaced most of the enclave’s pre-war population of 2.3 million several times, and most of Gaza’s infrastructure has been destroyed. According to reports at least 104 Palestinians, including 58 women and children, have been killed since the deal was announced on January 15.
After nearly seven weeks of intense fighting, Hamas and Israel reached an agreement for the first time on November 21, 2023, orchestrated by Qatar, Egypt and the U.S., halting the war for four days. Hamas released 50 Israeli hostages in exchange for 150 Palestinian prisoners and a four-day pause in fighting. Additionally, Hamas also released foreign hostages, including ten Thai and one Filipino national, who were abducted during the October 7 attacks while living and working in southern Israel. About 100 hostages, living and dead, are still being held by Hamas.
The deal, according to US President Joe Biden, would halt the fighting in Gaza, surge much needed-humanitarian assistance to Palestinian civilians, and reunite the hostages with their families”. According to the reports on the ceasefire agreement, in the first phase of the three-stage deal, which is to last 42 days, Hamas will release 33 Israeli hostages, including all women (soldiers and civilians), children, and men aged over 50, and in exchange, Israel will release 95 Palestinian prisoners, especially women and children under 19, detained in Israeli jails. Further, nine ill and wounded Israelis will be released in exchange for 110 Palestinians serving life sentences in Israeli jails. According to the framework of the deal, three hostages will be released on the first day, and four more will be released on the seventh day. After that, three hostages will be released every seven days, and the final 14 will be released in the final week of the first phase.
Additionally, during the first phase, Israel will withdraw from specific population centers in Gaza and facilitate the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza. The Palestinians displaced from their homes will also be allowed to move freely around the Gaza Strip, which Israel has cut into two halves with a military corridor. In order to contain Gaza’s devastating humanitarian crisis, Israel will also allow the entry of 600 humanitarian aid trucks daily. Israel will also reduce the presence of its forces in the strategically important Philadelphi Corridor, the border area between Egypt and Gaza. The corridor has been used by Hamas to smuggle vast amounts of weapons to carry out attacks on Israel. Israel will, however, withdraw completely from the Corridor no later than the 50th day after the deal comes into effect. Netanyahu was opposed to withdrawing from the Philadelphi Corridor and has been insisting on the need for a permanent presence of the Israeli forces, which Egypt has also opposed.
The rest of the remaining hostages, numbering 65, would be sent back and a corresponding ratio of Palestinian prisoners would be released in the second phase, along with the complete withdrawal of the Israeli forces from Gaza. The negotiations for phase two will begin approximately two weeks into the halt in the fighting. The third and final phase will involve the reconstruction of Gaza under the supervision of several countries and organizations and spanning three to five years, and the return of any remaining hostages’ bodies. It is in the final phase, Israel will be expected to withdraw from the Gaza Strip completely.
What still remains uncertain is who will administer Gaza beyond the ceasefire. The Israeli government envisions no role for either Hamas or its rival, the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority, in a post-conflict Gaza. The US has pressed for the return of a reformed version of the Palestinian Authority (PA) to administer the strip. Palestine’s President Mahmoud Abbas has said that the PA was ready to assume “full responsibility” in post-war Gaza. The US also envisions the role of Arab states to ensure security in the short term. However, the Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, have insisted that they would only support the scheme if there is a pathway to Palestinian statehood. Israel has yet to suggest an alternative form of governance in Gaza.
Despite being at war for almost 15 months, neither Israel nor Hamas could claim to have achieved the main goals they had set at the outset of the conflict. The goal of an independent and sovereign state of Palestine, which Hamas and every Palestinian always dreamed of while fighting with mighty Israel, still remains a distant reality. Still, Hamas can claim victory as it would get time to reorganize itself as the relentless Israeli air and ground action has decimated it, if not eliminated it completely. Israel has vowed to wipe out Hamas once and for all. Gallant, the then Israeli defence minister, had roared with rage: “We will wipe this thing called Hamas, ISIS-Gaza, off the face of the earth. It will cease to exist.” Even after 15 months of Israeli bombardment with the death toll of Palestinians surpassing 50,000 and killing its top leadership including Yahya Sinwar, Hamas remains the dominant Palestinian power in Gaza and forced Israel to negotiate a deal. Still, the release of all hostages would certainly be a victory for Netanyahu.
The ceasefire may represent a major respite for the besieged people of Gaza; it alone cannot guarantee long-term and durable peace in the region. As underscored by the UN Secretary General António Guterres, a lasting end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can only come through a two-State solution. The denial of the right to Statehood to Palestinians would indefinitely prolong the conflict. The rebuilding of Gaza and halting of Israel’s settlement in the West Bank are equally crucial.
Aftab Alam is a professor at Aligarh Muslim University and heads its Strategic and Security Studies Programme.