
Although only time will reveal very clearly the emerging foreign policy and worldview of the new (second) Trump presidency, there are already some indications.
There is going to be an important continuity—the USA under Trump will continue to be guided by the overwhelming objective of seeking or retaining dominance of world in the sense of striving to always remain the number one power in the world. Towards this end, very high military expenditure will continue.
However in another important context there may be a very significant important change. While USA policies have been getting extremely and increasingly reckless in recent years in getting frighteningly close to risking a direct confrontation with Russia and China and thereby possibly starting an all-destructive world war and a nuclear war, the new policy direction may give much more importance and attention to avoiding such extremely big and destructive wars. The first step in this direction may be to secure an early end of the Ukraine war, or failing that, to at least substantially reduce US involvement in this.
While avoiding brinkmanship and avoiding getting very close to direct wars with the other great powers of Russia and China, the USA will seek to find other ways of ensuring dominance ( other than retaining military might, not just increasing WMDs but perhaps even taking extremely high-risk steps towards space warfare).
One hint of what these steps will be has already been given in some statements. It is increasingly likely that some sort of annexation or purchase of Greenland will take place, using more polite language if necessary.
The other idea of annexing Canada has been treated by some as a joke or as a bullying gesture. It may turn out eventually to be more than this. Of course any annexation is likely to be pursued as far as possible more in a way that appears like a coalition of the willing, using whatever methods are available.
If the goal is to ensure world dominance, then one way out is to enlarge the area of the country in such a way that the USA becomes by far the largest area country with the most natural resources (not just oil and gas but also rare earths). However unlikely or unjust this may sound to most people of the world, creating one vast country, or a coalition, joining the vast territories of the present day USA, Greenland and Canada may appear to some policy makers to be the relatively easier and less destructive way of achieving world dominance, providing access to vast resources as well to increasing control over the vast Arctic region with its melting snow, emerging trade routes and increasing strategic importance.
However as the ecologically sensitive and vulnerable parts of the Arctic region are opened up to increasing exploitation by the USA and its increasing competition with Russia and possibly even China there, the environmental and climate change related dangers and risks will increase greatly. But this is something about which we can be sure that Trump’s USA will not worry too much, despite the increasing warnings of climate related disasters, the latest being the Los Angeles fires.
What is of the greatest importance is to remember that no matter in what form dominance is pursued and by whom, the quest for world dominance is inherently a very dangerous undertaking and even if extra care is taken to avoid very dangerous wars, these may actually only get postponed but not altogether avoided.
Secondly, while genuinely willing coalitions or mergers of two or more countries based on consensus are fine, any use of force or threats or unjust curbs and sanctions to secure the submission of others is clearly very wrong and must be opposed.
Thirdly, the development of the highly vulnerable and sensitive Arctic region must be based on environment and biodiversity protection and not on accelerated exploitation of natural resources. A protective Arctic region policy must be a very important component of the overall highest priority of protecting the basic life-nurturing conditions of earth.
At the same time, avoiding world war and nuclear war, or even very destructive wars fought with conventional weapons, must always be a very high priority for the entire world. The Ukraine War with all its massive destructions and even more dangerous possibilities must end as early as possible.
Bharat Dogra is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Planet in Peril, Protecting Earth for Children, A Day in 2071 and Man over Machine.