It was only a short while ago, when a regime generally considered to be hostile to Israel collapsed in Syria and Israel used the opportunity to immediately seize more territory in Syria, that there was much talk of a significant victory for Israel.
However more recently as Israel agreed to a ceasefire deal with Hamas, at least temporarily giving up its efforts of ethnic cleansing and falling far short of eliminating Hamas as armed Hamas soldiers could be seen making their presence felt while accompanying the people of Gaza returning home, the discourse shifted to this being a defeat for Israel.
Actually the real change during this short period has not been so big as to move from victory to defeat for Israel. Of course there has been important political change in the USA, but US policy can change again due to a number of factors.
At the same time there are also more basic reasons why it may be more prudent not to speak in terms of the conventional analysis of victory and defeat in the context of present day wars. With increasingly destructive weapons being used and the possibility of even more destructive weapons becoming available, the discourse should move towards ending wars as early as possible on a note of durable peace. Too much talk of who has won and who has lost and in what ways makes it difficult to achieve and maintain peace, as no politician wants the stigma of defeat and so all this talk of victory and defeat makes it difficult for political leaders on both sides to end wars in a spirit of give and take. Too much of analysis in terms of defeat and victory can lead to creating conditions in which there is more of a desire to avenge defeat or to celebrate victory in ways that can deepen the scars of conflict. Instead there should be more discussion in terms of how early end of war in durable ways can bring significant gains to both sides and to improve peace prospects in the entire world, and the hands of political leaders who are going ahead with peace processes, sometimes risking their political careers, should be strengthened.
Coming to the Ukraine war situation just now, again we see that in the context of this most dangerous existing war the conventional analysis in terms of victory and defeat is harmful. It is sometimes stated that if Russia goes back on its earlier preconditions for negotiations then it will be seen as a defeat for Russia, and it is even more common to say that if most of Russia’s conditions are accepted then this will be considered a defeat for the NATO or for the west ( not just Ukraine). However if the discourse continues in these terms and public opinion is conditioned by such a discourse, it becomes more difficult to achieve any kind of peace, let alone durable peace, although it is durable peace followed by large-scale reconstruction and rehabilitation effort that is needed most urgently today. On the other hand if instead of speaking of victory and defeat, the discourse is more about how great a contribution the leadership on all sides can still make by quickly moving towards peace followed by large-scale reconstruction, then this can have a very positive impact on the prospects of peace and even chances of durable peace can increase.
It is very important that wars should end on a note of some goodwill, and not just as frozen conflicts. One inspiring example of this can be recalled from the early 1970s when India and Pakistan had just fought a war of very high stakes resulting in the creation of the new nation of Bangladesh, the end of a genocide in what was now Bangladesh and earlier was East Pakistan, and the safe return of nearly 10 million refugees, who had been provided shelter in India, to their homes in Bangladesh. Following the surrender of Pakistan army India had nearly 90,000 Pakistani prisoners of war, a very high number indeed. However India’s Prime Minister Mrs. Indira Gandhi welcomed the new Pakistani President Mr. Zulfikar Bhutto who came along with his daughter Benazir to sign the Shimla Accord in surprisingly friendly conditions and without hurting the self-respect of the Pakistani leaders in any way. All the thousands of prisoners could go back safely to their homes (although this was delayed due to problems within Pakistan). This provides an example of how even a war with high stakes can end very quickly on a note of goodwill, with leaders of both sides being photographed with broad smiles while signing an agreement of peace and lot of goodwill being seen among people too at the time of the signing of Shimla Accord.
Bharat Dogra is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save the Earth Now. His recent books include Planet in Peril, Protecting Earth for Children, Man over Machine, Earth without Borders and A Day in 2071.
