Rational, evidence-based decision-making is the most basic quality that leaders of any country must possess and use, particularly in very important and sensitive times. Unfortunately in very important times some European leaders seem to be failing in this most basic and elementary test of leadership. When leaders who had been trusted to perform rationally using evidence-based approach fail to live up to this trust, mature democracies should be able to use their systems of check and balances to make these leaders realize the folly of their actions so that these can be checked before these cause disaster, and this must be the hope today from Europe’s democracies.
All this is being stated in the context of the lack of expected support and cooperation from some prominent European leaders in promoting peace in Ukraine (the kind of peace process and agenda that is achievable and hence effective in the given situation of early 2025) as well as in achieving more durable and inclusive peace in Europe (inclusive of Russia). Unfortunately at a time when certain circumstances have combined to improve peace prospects, these leaders are responding not in ways to enhance these peace prospects but to obstruct them. If they persist in this, history will judge then very harshly for failing peace when a deeply troubled world needed this so badly.
The most non-rational thinking of these leaders and their followers can be seen in their repeated insistence on very high threats from Russia, at times exaggerating these threats to the limits of a horror movie, and then asking for future planning to be based on their perception of these imaginary or highly exaggerated threats. There is no evidence based thinking in this; only phobia and highly distorted imagination.
What exactly do such leaders want? Do they want the war to continue, or do they want Ukraine to be permanently on a course of hostility and tensions towards Russia? Now that the USA no longer seeks Ukraine as a proxy against Russia, do some of these European leaders seek this? Don’t they realize the high risks inherent in this? Are they also guided by the ambition of seizing the emerging situation to grab regional leadership?
As several well-informed experts have pointed out in recent times, there is no evidence that Russia has any desire and intention of conquering any part of Europe other than the territory formerly of Ukraine that it controls by now in March 2025 (about 20 per cent of Ukraine’s territory as it existed before 2014). The wider Russia-Ukraine war should not be seen singularly as a reflection of Russian aggression; in fact more prominently it is a reflection of the desire on the part of biggest powers to use Ukraine as a proxy against Russia to weaken Russia.
Once this war ends, and the prospects of peace are brighter now, what are the chances of Russia attacking any other part of Europe including Ukraine again? There is hardly any evidence of these chances even being moderately high, as long as any deliberate high provocations are not caused.
Some countries including very small countries have been treating their citizens of Russian ethnicity and language very harshly, and this can be a future flashpoint, but this can be easily avoided by stopping such unjust ad unfair practices. Unjust freezing or seizing of Russian assets may be another flashpoint, but this again can be settled very soon in accordance with principles of justice and fairness as well as international law very soon. While any such contentious matters can be resolved relatively easily, the wider economic reasons for cooperation of various countries of Europe with Russia are much more significant and in addition advancing the prospects of more durable peace and security in Europe by making Russia an integral part of European peace and security is also a very important task ahead.
An important European leader had lamented earlier why leaders of European countries like him have to behave like vassals of the USA. Now that the USA wishes no longer to be the lord, this leader does not appear to know how to use his new freedom for achieving better objectives, or else insists on using it for even worse policies than before!
One problem in finding the right path of durable and inclusive peace is that people have been fed on false ‘news and analysis’ of Russian aggression and threats for so long, and big media has colluded in this so widely and brazenly, that public opinion often goes with this trend. Hence the challenge ahead is for all forces of peace to create an agenda of broader and durable peace in Europe, starting with doing all that is possible to bring early peace in Ukraine.
Bharat Dogra is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Protecting Earth for Children, Planet in Peril, Man over Machine, Earth without Borders and A Day in 2071.
