Geopolitical
Audit Of Asian Tsunami
By Arun D. Ahluwalia
28 March, 2006
Countercurrents.org
After World War II, if there
was another landmark moment in human history it was indeed on the morning
of 26 th December, 2004. The three hundred thousand dead included citizens
of 52 countries. Millions lost their homes and/or dear ones. Tsunami
initiated soon after Sumatra quake at 00.59 GMT and within 8 minutes
a warning was possible. Geoethical question being ducked is : could
the number of deaths have been much lesser with a little alert and conscionable
utilization of scientific understanding and data and available communication
skills within reaction time?
As a safeguard in future,
geoethical rectitude must be inculcated and audited regularly and systematically
across the globe in a spirit of accountability to the taxpayer. The
strong will behind various wars and space explorations was missing in
this war on the biggest disaster of human history. This war was lost
without a fight. Tsunami, the enemy, gave 15 minutes to several hours
warning. Humanity could not ask for more from nature. There was no line
of command and no system existed of a civil or military defense against
such a disaster. Defense personnel were ignorant of tsunami and political
leaders/administrators learnt about tsunami from media. Warning dissemination
system needs to be decentralized. It should be every scientist's mandate
to interact with communities. That fruits of science and technology
did not reach victims of second worst quake and worst ever associated
tsunami, calls for redefining and prioritizing societal duties of scientists.
Scientific establishments
like USGS, BGS, NGRI, Meteorology Dept and GSI cannot take the plea
that awakening the masses in such rare emergencies is not their job.
This should have been the natural reflex action of any establishment
blessed with knowledge and resources. To do the right thing at right
place in future, it is worthwhile auditing psychological reactions of
these elite communities during precious reaction moments gone a begging.
Correct geoethical behavior demanded immediate activation of hotlines
to countries of the region and bombardment of text messages in the region
on mobile phones, radio and TV. Expensive seismic research outputs should
have straight gone to the grassroot user across the half of world's
tsunami prone population living in coastal areas. Right to life saving
information round the clock across the globe in a form intelligible
to all is a geoethical obligation of scientists to society. Media and
leaders have to be educated by the scientists in an ever evolving, effective
and vibrant system of mass communication.
PACIFIC LESSONS WORTH LEARNING: MAKE TSUNAMI MUSEUMS OUT OF
FUNDS RAISED
All the Indian Ocean nations as well as the UNESCO would do well to
immediately set up Tsunami Museums on the pattern of Pacific Tsunami
Museum. Due to systematic awareness created by Pacific Tsunami Museums,
deaths have been much fewer in Pacific region compared to our region
where a dismal record of misery has been set. Had our coastal population
been made aware about tsunamis soon after severe earthquakes recurring
for several weeks in Indonesia, they would have definitely watched the
sea behavior and run upland about 30 to 50 feet high and saved their
lives. Without a system of creating awakening constantly, this tragedy
like all natural disasters would be forgotten. If aware, soon after
an earthquake or even without a perceptible earthquake (because tsunamis
can be caused by a distant quake, huge landslide or volcanic eruption
in ocean or a meteorite impact), on seeing ocean waters suddenly recede
too far and stay there for a while, people could save themselves. We
hear of smart and gutsy survivors and alert individual saviors from
the Indian Ocean but not of one scientific establishment across the
world that reacted to the foreshocks or the main shock near Sumatra.
Stories of Pacific tsunamis
carry great lessons and are extremely interesting. The last significant
tsunami before 2004 was in June 1998, in New Guinea. The last time a
major disaster like Sumatra's happened was on May 23rd, 1960. Tsunamis
triggered by the great Chile earthquake struck Hawaii. People born after
this quake did not know until fateful 26 th December, 2004. Awareness
of tsunamis could have meant a life or a virtual rebirth. Internet has
a lot of sites with tsunami information. The Pacific Tsunami Museum
in Hilo, Hawaii, is special because of its human face and a human basis.
Hilo was heavily damaged by tsunamis in April 1946 and again in May
1960. Tsunamis as such are always on Hiloans' minds. In 1994 the museum
was founded to help keep the population prepared and alert. It takes
a little extra effort to mobilize people against something they have
not experienced. On November 26th, 1999, such efforts paid off. A seven-magnitude
quake stuck Vanatau in south Pacific and a tsunami completely wiped
out the village of Baie Martelli but only five lives were lost. A research
team report quoted from About Geology.com (11thJan, 2005) says: "The
small number of casualties was due to prior education and a party. Because
of a wedding on the day of the earthquake, almost everyone was still
up celebrating when the earthquake occurred. A lookout was sent to note
the condition of the sea. When it was reported that the water was receding,
villagers concluded that a tsunami was coming, and they ran to a nearby
hillside to escape the wave.
Part of the funds raised
now should be used also for tsunami museums in our regions using local
dialects and visuals to be more effective. TV and radio channels in
local dialects can have a crucial role to play in such disaster risk
reduction. In larger public as well as enlightened self-interest, media
will have to proportionate its coverage to focus on the human safety
and geosciences applications. Interesting innovative programmes breaking
barriers between science developments and man on the coast could save
millions. Had scientists reacted or had there been more science journalists
chasing scientists, alerts would have been effectively and comprehensively
communicated. Even the most vulnerable persons could possibly save their
lives e.g. fishermen deep in the sea could have been told to remain
there for it is safer over there than on the beach during a tsunami
strike.
IUGS AND ISDR PERSPECTIVE
IUGS (International Union
of Geological Sciences) has resolved: A) To promote the development
and application of scientific expertise and experience in understanding
the geological forces at work in the development of all types of natural
hazards and the processes involved in their mitigation of natural hazards;
B) To share this information as freely as possible with other members
of the scientific community, government officials, policy makers and
planners, the insurance industry, and the public as a whole.
International Strategy for
Disaster Reduction (ISDR) has also circulated list of ten preliminary
lessons learnt by its experts from this worst disaster of history which
deserve widest circulation to our Ministers, MPs and MLAs as well as
Panchayat leaders as well as media and citizens i.e. a) We are all vulnerable
to natural disasters while the immediate consequences of disasters are
felt at particular places, the effects always spread more widely; b)
Careful coastal land-use planning is essential to minimize risk. Nearly
3 billion people, or almost half the world population, live in coastal
zones, which in many cases are prone to natural hazards - especially
tropical cyclones, floods, storms and tsunamis. Governments and local
authorities need to undertake long term land use planning to ensure
that disaster risks are minimized; c) Public awareness and education
are essential to protecting people and property. In Thailand over 1,800
lives were saved because a tribal leader recognized the imminent danger
when the sea suddenly receded, and so decided to evacuate his people
up to the hills. One hundred tourists owe their lives to a 10-year-old
girl from England who warned them to flee to safety, moments before
the tsunami engulfed the beach. The girl recognized the signs after
learning about tsunamis in her geography class; d) Early warning saves
lives. The tsunami highlighted risks that other regions face owing to
the lack of regional tsunami warning systems, such as the Caribbean
and countries located along the Mediterranean coastline; e) Countries
can work together ahead of time, as well as when disaster strikes.
There were many instances
of countries in the Indian Ocean region quickly providing help to affected
neighboring countries. But countries can also cooperate ahead of time,
before disasters strike, for example on regional early warning systems,
preparedness and response plans, in addition to developing necessary
systems at the national and local levels; f) Reducing risk depends on
close interaction between the scientific and technical community, public
authorities and community-based organizations. There is a need to strengthen
the link between scientific and technical institutions, national and
local authorities, and community leaders to build knowledge and the
basis for avoiding future human, economic and social losses from disasters;
g) Developing and respecting appropriate building codes can minimize
exposure to risks; construction of housing and hotels along vulnerable
coastal areas along the Indian Ocean meant that thousands of people
were engulfed by the enormous tsunami while they were sunbathing on
the beach or sleeping in their hotels. Regulations to manage the construction
of new buildings near the coastline and the development of multi-story
designs that offer refuge on higher floors are examples that could mean
fewer lives are lost from tsunamis in the future; h) Humanitarian aid
needs to invest more in disaster prevention in addition to immediate
relief needs. Donors need to reduce risks in the long-term by including
prevention in aid and relief programmes. j) Concrete action and good
coordination is vital to ensure people's safety from disasters.
Governments need to demonstrate
their political will and commitment to disaster risk reduction through
concrete measures. Governments could reserve a national budget line
for disaster reduction; donor funds could be put to strategic use to
support and build capacity for disaster risk management. Coordination
is also an essential element, to ensure effective disaster prevention,
mitigation, preparedness and response across the entire UN system, governments
and non-governmental organizations; k) Telecommunications and the media
have a crucial role to play in disaster risk reduction: Phone systems,
mobiles, television, radio, news services and the internet are all examples
of tools the media and telecommunications can contribute to risk awareness,
education and early warning. Alerts can be communicated and broadcast
to ensure that even the most vulnerable receive warnings that could
potentially save their lives. Media systems help people visualize and
learn about the risks they face and about options for reducing their
risks. More scientists should spend part of their time as science journalists
since journalists themselves normally remain obsessed with routine issues
of "news value".
Nearly 430 nuclear reactors across the world are all in coastal areas
and these cannot always be shut down in time because not all floods
can be predicted. Relocation from coastal areas looks impractical but
it is unavoidable. It is high time we start focusing on this logistical
challenge. Looking the other way is not going to diminish the risk.
Free and frank discussion on this issue is not happening even in the
best democracies of the world boasting of a terribly free media. Scientists
appear to be scared of being dubbed as alarmists. Silence on such a
vital issue could mean asking for global human disasters n the short
as well as long run. Right to information giving protection against
natural hazards should become a fundamental right of all global citizens.
Scientific awakening and
research must be intertwined and made obligatory. Our armed forces must
introspect as to how their personnel were ignorant about tsunamis. Military
geologists are employed the world over but not in Indian Ocean region.
With a little vision our saviors would have been saved in Andaman. Government
of India and all the Indian Ocean States must realize it is penny wise
and pound foolish to not introduce geological education across the schools
and colleges and all universities in the country.
We lost a precious opportunity
to document tsunami in its grandeur because our own administrators and
armed forces in Andaman failed to alert N Delhi. In the long run, proper
focus on geosciences would not only mitigate disasters but also accelerate
mineral exploration and mineral based cottage industries. Economics
of geosciences savvy leaderships and societies has to seep into our
system immediately. At times what looks economical is actually most
extravagant. Tsunamis and floods (reverse tsunamis) have damaged us
much more than worst wars. Our will to fight conventional wars is ever
strong but we lack leadership and motivation to engage in these real
wars against disasters and geoscientific ignorance thinking we do not
have money for such programmes. The money we saved in not installing
our own tsunami system inspite of Indian Ocean having been hit by tsunamis
ten times in last 250 years was not ever worth saving.
Attacking all geohazards
in a war mode is better than providing relief. UNO also needs to learn
this lesson right now for it has stopped geosciences funding to its
IGCP Programmes. Geological processes as well as fruits come slowly
but steadily and in great bounty. It lies on the shoulders of geologists
to explain to national leaders frankly and effectively. Ignoring geologists
and letting nongeologists head key organizations like GSI has been comprehensively
counterproductive. It is like allowing Army doctors and Engineers to
become Chiefs of Staff. We need to reorganize our coastal areas urbanization
as well as geoscientific institutions and initiate regional geological
collaboration in South Asia or within SAARC which would bring out our
real human resource potential towards tackling hazards and exploring
and exploiting mineral wealth successfully.
Neighbors exploring their
mineral resources and tackling hazards jointly makes scientific, diplomatic
as well economic wisdom. Once this realization dawns, Indian Ocean nations
as well as Himalayan ecology sharing countries have full potential to
manage their disasters. Geologists need to articulate their voice and
opinion in a manner that they lead the policy makers. It is now or never
for this positive about turn to manage the region with geoscientific
prudence and vision. This much scientific homage to 3 lakh who died
is a must to atone for our geoethical fiasco and inaction on the fateful
morning of 26 th December, 2004.
Arun D. Ahluwalia Geology Dept, Panjab University, Chandigarh 160014
[email protected]