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05 June, 2016

Demand Destruction And Peak Oil
By Roger Baker

We are fully under the influence of petroleum demand destruction. The global oil market can't function without real oil production price discovery, which doesn't exist in the currently deflationary global economy, which forces indebted producers to sell far below cost

24 November, 2015

Why “Supply And Demand” Doesn’t Work For Oil
By Gail Tverberg

Perhaps the most serious near-term problem from continued low prices is the likelihood of rising debt defaults. These debt defaults can be expected to have a very adverse impact on banks, pension plans, and insurance companies. Governments would likely have little ability to bail out these organizations because of the widespread nature of the problem and also because of their own high debt levels. As a result, the losses incurred by financial institutions seem likely be passed on to businesses and individual citizens, in one way or another

16 September, 2015

How Our Energy Problem Leads To A Debt Collapse Problem
By Gail Tverberg

Usually, we don’t stop to think about how the whole economy works together. A major reason is that we have been lacking data to see long-term relationships. In this post, I show some longer-term time series relating to energy growth, GDP growth, and debt growth–going back to 1820 in some cases–that help us understand our situation better

12 March, 2015

The Real Story Behind The Oil Price Collapse 
By Michael T. Klare

Is Big Oil Finally Entering a Climate Change World?

03 February, 2015

After The Peak
By Richard Heinberg

Just as the rate of the world’s liquid fuels production may be about to crest the curve, we’re hearing that warnings of peak oil were wrongheaded all along. The world is in the midst of a supply glut and prices are declining, tireless resource optimists remind us. Surely this disproves those pessimistic prophets of peril! However, as long-time peakist commentator Ron Patterson notes: Peak oil will be the point in time when more oil is produced than has ever been produced in the history of the world, or ever will be in the future of the world. It is far more likely that this period will be thought of as a time of an oil glut rather than a time of an oil shortage

07 January, 2015

Oil And The Economy: Where Are We Headed In 2015-16?
By Gail Tverberg

The price of oil is down. How should we expect the economy to perform in 2015 and 2016? Newspapers in the United States seem to emphasize the positive aspects of the drop in prices. I have written Ten Reasons Why High Oil Prices are a Problem. If our only problem were high oil prices, then low oil prices would seem to be a solution. Unfortunately, the problem we are encountering now is extremely low prices. If prices continue at this low level, or go even lower, we are in deep trouble with respect to future oil extraction. It seems to me that the situation is much more worrisome than most people would expect. Even if there are some temporary good effects, they will be more than offset by bad effects, some of which could be very bad indeed. We may be reaching limits of a finite world

01 January, 2015

The Peak Oil Crisis
By Tom Whipple

Should US shale oil production actually fall next year, then global “all liquids” production could fall too. A few astute analysts are already mulling whether just perhaps 2014 will someday be recognized as the all-time high for global oil production or in other words “peak oil.” It is still years too early to pronounce that an all-time peak in what we now call “all liquids” has occurred, but it is an interesting thought. The situation may just be worse than it seems

13 November, 2014

Watching The Watchdogs: 10 Years of The IEA World Energy Outlook
By David MacLeod

The IEA World Energy Outlook has gradually moved from rosy to pessimistic reports over the last ten years, or what Stuart Staniford called “increasingly reality-based.” Over the last decade, the report’s projected oil demand has gradually decreased by 20 million barrels per day (mb/d), and the projected costs have continued to rise. Yet even their most pessimistic reports, I believe, fail to capture true reality. It seems that politics plays a strong role in what is allowed to be published

10 November, 2014

Oil Price Slide - No Good Way Out
By Gail Tverberg

The world is in a dangerous place now. A large share of oil sellers need the revenue from oil sales. They have to continue producing, regardless of how low oil prices go unless they are stopped by bankruptcy, revolution, or something else that gives them a very clear signal to stop. Producers of oil from US shale are in this category, as are most oil exporters, including many of the OPEC countries and Russia

The Collapse of Oil Prices And Energy Security in Europe
By Ugo Bardi

It is vital for Europe's energy security to invest in renewable energy. We shouldn't expect miracles from renewables, but they will be immensely helpful in the difficult times ahead

27 March, 2013

World Crude Production 2013 Without Shale Oil Is Back To 2005 Levels
By Matt Mushalik

Unnoticed by the mainstream media, US shale oil covers up a recent decline of crude oil production of 1.5 mb/d in the rest of world (using data up to Oct 2013). This means that without US shale oil the world would be in a deep oil crisis similar to the decline phase 2006/07 when oil prices went up. The decline comes from many countries but is also caused by fights over oil and oil-related issues in Iran, Libya and other countries which can be seen on TV every day

10 January, 2013

Peak Oil Is Dead! Long Live Peak Oil!
By Michael T. Klare

Global peak oil remains in our future, even if not purely for the reasons given by Hubbert and his followers. With the gradual disappearance of “easy” oil, the major private firms are being forced to exploit increasingly tough, hard-to-reach reserves, thereby driving up the cost of production and potentially discouraging new investment at a time when climate change and environmental activism are on the rise

16 October, 2013

Fracking Wars, Fracking Casualties
By Richard Heinberg

This article is an excerpt from Richard Heinberg's new book SNAKE OIL: How Fracking's False Promise of Plenty Imperils Our Future. This is Chapter 4 of the book

10 October, 2013

Peak Oil: It's Time For Change
By Countercurrents.org

An article in Malaylam calling on Kerala to adapt to Peak Oil scenario urgently (PDF)

25 September, 2013

SNAKE OIL: Chapter 1 - This Is What Peak Oil Looks Like
By Richard Heinberg

This article is an excerpt from Richard Heinberg's new book SNAKE OIL: How Fracking's False Promise of Plenty Imperils Our Future

14 August, 2013

Whither Shale Oil? Interview With David Hughes
By Steve Andrews

" If you believe the new estimates from the EIA in terms of available drilling locations in the Bakken and Eagle Ford—which I’ve discounted somewhat—I would see a tight-oil peak in the 2020 to 2022 time range. If you look at the background declines of other traditional sources of oil, the EIA could be fairly close with their 2019 estimate for a secondary peak of all US oil, though I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s sooner than that"

23 May, 2013

Will The International Energy Agency's Oil Forecast Be Wrong Again?
By Kurt Cobb

The famous Danish physicist Niels Bohr once humorously observed, "Predictions are very difficult, especially about the future." And so, as the world considers yet another rosy oil supply forecast, this time from the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA), it is worth reviewing the agency's record

20 November, 2012

IEA Oil Forecast Unrealistically High; Misses Diminishing Returns
By Gail Tverberg

The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides unrealistically high oil forecasts in its new 2012 World Energy Outlook (WEO). It claims, among other things, that the United States will become the world’s largest oil producer by 2020, and will become a net oil exporter by 2030. The statements about rising oil production in the US are just a distraction. Diminishing returns mean that US oil production will never increase very much. Oil costs will remain high, and this will be the real issue disturbing economies around the world

16 September, 2012

Will Saudi Arabia Become An Oil Importer By 2030?
By Kjell Aleklett

“Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil producer (11.1mbpd) & exporter (7.7mbpd). It also consumes 25% of its production. Energy consumption per capita exceeds that of most industrial nations. Oil & its derivatives account for ~50% of Saudi’s electricity production, used mostly (>50%) for residential use. Peak power demand is growing by ~8%/yr. Our analysis shows that if nothing changes Saudi may have no available oil for export by 2030.”

30 August, 2012

Don't Worry, There's Plenty Of Oil
By Richard Heinberg

In recent months we've seen a spate of articles, reports, and op-eds claiming that peak oil is a worry of the past thanks to so-called "new technologies" that can tap massive amounts of previously inaccessible stores of "unconventional" oil. "Don't worry, drive on," we're told. But as Post Carbon Institute Senior Fellow Richard Heinberg asks in this short video, what's really new here? "What's new is high oil prices and … the economy hates high oil prices."

04 July, 2012

New Energy Report From Harvard Makes Unsupportable Assumptions
By Heading Out

A new Energy Study from Harvard which boldly states that by 2020, global production will be at 110.6 mbd is a chimera of the imagination

Treehugger, Monbiot And Is Peak Oil Over?
By Sharon Astyk

If Monbiot wanted to believe peak oil was true so that it could save us from climate change, he was kidding himself. If he wants to believe it is untrue because it can’t, well, that seems like a line of faulty reasoning right there

11 May, 2012

New IMF Working Paper Models Impact Of Oil Limits On The Economy
By Gail Tverberg

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently issued a new working paper called “The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology” (free PDF), which should be of interest to people who are following “peak oil” issues

Shale Gas: The View From Russia
By Dmitry Orlov

So this whole shale gas thing didn't work out as planned, did it? But could it have? Had it turned out to be much better in every way, could it have swung geopolitical influence away from Russia and Iran and back toward the US? Alas, no

The Peak Oil Crisis: Perspective
By Tom Whipple

While waiting to see how the Iranian nuclear confrontation and the various Eurozone crises sort themselves out, there is time to step back and look at the interaction of the major forces that will shape our future. While the problems of oil depletion are already upon us, shrinking resources are only a part of global dynamics currently

06 April, 2012

Seven Myths Used To Debunk Peak Oil, Debunked
By Andrew McKay

So what are their arguments, and why are they so wrong? The top seven are listed below

04 April, 2012

Does the U.S. Really Have More Oil Than Saudi Arabia?
By Robert Rapier

Despite having an oil shale resource that may indeed be far greater than the oil resources of Saudi Arabia, the reserve will continue to be close to zero for the foreseeable future because there are still many technical hurdles to overcome to realize a scalable, commercially viable process

26 March, 2012

The New York Times Exaggerates The Significance of Shale Oil
By Kjell Aleklett

In a number of articles The New York Times has shown that it is not concerned about Peak Oil. On 23 March it headed page 1 with the article, “U.S. Inches Toward Goal of Energy Independence” One can interpret the article as saying that the USA is now on the way to reaching energy independence but let us compare some of the statements in the article to what the USA’s Energy Information Agency (EIA) says

15 March, 2012

1970: The Peak of Everything
By Peter Goodchild

The bad news about oil was that US domestic production in 1970 began a permanent decline. The bad news about oil globally arrived not a great deal later: "peak oil" in the absolute sense was a few decades in the future, the "peak per capita" was in 1979, at 5.5 barrels of oil

The Peak Oil Crisis: Surging Gasoline
By Tom Whipple

Global oil production is peaking. Once this threshold is crossed we (the press, the administration, political candidates, and the body politic) can begin a meaningful discussion of our options for the future

25 February, 2012

Houses In The Post-Peak World
By Peter Goodchild

What are some practical responses to house-building in a world where petroleum and other natural resource declines to a small fraction of their present annual production?

Peak Energy And Resources, Climate Change, And The Preservation Of Knowledge
By Alice Friedemann

We need government plans or strategies at all levels to let the air out of the tires of civilization as slowly as possible to prevent panic and sudden discontinuities

23 February, 2012

Oil Will Decline Shortly After 2015, Says Former Oil Expert Of
International Energy Agency

By Matthieu Auzanneau

Olivier Rech developed petroleum scenarios for the International Energy Agency over a three year period, up until 2009. His forecasts for future petroleum production are now much more pessimistic than those published by the IEA. He expects stronger tensions as of 2013, and an inevitable overall decline of oil production "somewhere between 2015 and 2020"

21 February, 2012

Why Do Political And Economic Leaders Deny Peak Oil And Climate Change?
By Alice Friedemann

Since there’s nothing that can be done about climate change, because there’s no scalable alternative to fossil fuels, I’ve always wondered why politicians and other leaders, who clearly know better, feel compelled to deny it. I think it’s for exactly the same reasons you don’t hear them talking about preparing for Peak Oil

20 February, 2012

How You Can Tell That The Peak Oil Debate Is (Almost) Over
By Kurt Cobb

A quote commonly attributed to Gandhi may shed light on where we are in the peak oil debate: "First they ignore you. Then they laugh at you. Then they attack you. Then you win." So, it appears that we are now in stage three of a four-stage process. Now we have come to the point where there are open attacks in the mainstream media

13 February, 2012

Three Major Journals Publish Articles On Limited World Oil Supply
By Gail Tverberg

In the past month, three major peer-reviewed journals have published articles relating to limited world oil supply: 1. In Science, Technology is Turning U. S. Oil Around But Not the World’s, by Richard A. Kerr; 2. In Nature, Climate Policy: Oil’s Tipping Point has Passed, by James Murray and David King; and 3. In Energy, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis, by Gail Tverberg

22 January, 2012

Australian Report Predicts Peak Oil Around 2017
By Matt Mushalik

Australian Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics study predicts peak oil around 2017, followed by permanent decline

Transport Energy Futures: Long-Term Oil Supply Trends
And Projections (Australian Peak Oil Report)

By Dr David Gargett

The modelling is forecasting what can be termed ‘the 2017 drop-off’. The outlook under a base case scenario is for a long decline in oil production to begin in 2017, which will stretch to the end of the century and beyond

05 January, 2012

Waiting For The Great Pumpkin
By John Michael Greer

At the beginning of every year, the peak oil blogosphere sees a flurry of predictions for the coming year. A surprisingly large number of these predictions are the same ones that were offered in previous years, and didn't happen. Is this simply a matter of impaired collective memory, or is something deeper involved? The Archdruid considers the question

The Peak Oil Crisis: Closing Out The Year
By Tom Whipple

The returns are in and we now know that world price of a barrel of oil averaged $111 in 2011. This was up 14 percent from last year and well above the previous high of $100 set in 2008

08 December, 2011

What Peak Oil Looks Like
By John Michael Greer

One of the perennial themes of peak oil discussion over the last decade or so has been what the world will look like once the age of cheap abundant energy comes to a close. While the arguments are ongoing, the answer may already have arrived. With a tip of the hat to green economist Herman Daly, the Archdruid explains

06 December, 2011

Saudi Arabia - Headed For A Downfall?
By Gail Tverberg

Saudi Arabia recently announced that it had halted a $100 billion oil production expansion plan to raise capacity to 15 million barrels a day by 2020. At this point, the country claims to have capacity of 12 million barrels a day. What does this mean for its future? Let’s take a look behind the figures

05 December, 2011

An Interview With Jeremy Leggett
By Countercurrents.org

Jeremy Leggett speaks on Peak Oil, Renewable energy and financial crisis

27 July, 2011

The Scourge Of 'Peak Oil'
By Dahr Jamail

As consumption continues to increase in such major users as China, India, and the US, existing oil fields are being depleted and new discoveries are not keeping apace in order to offset growing demand

19 February, 2011

Don’t Count On Natural Gas To Solve
US Energy Problems

By Gail Tverberg

While there is the possibility that shale gas will allow US natural gas supplies to increase for a few years (or even 10 or 15 years), natural gas is only about one-fourth of US fossil fuel use, so it would be very difficult to ramp it up enough to meet all of these needs

15 February, 2011

The Coming Misery That Big Oil Discusses
Behind Closed Doors

By Steve LeVine

Three years ago, we got a glimpse into the room when Royal Dutch/Shell issued a scenario forecasting the world in 2020. Shell said that energy supplies will be so tight that they will tip the world into a full-blown crisis in which governments will force their populations to reduce driving, use less electricity, and pay an extremely steep increase for what they do consume. There will be a massive, decade-long economic slowdown, and geopolitical power will shift dramatically to energy-producing nations, the company said.Today, Shell returned with an update

Earth’s Limits: Why Growth Won’t Return
By Richard Heinberg

This article is the first excerpt from Chapter 3 of Richard's new book 'The End of Growth', which is set for publication by New Society Publishers in July 2011

Peak Oil, Climate Change, Political Turmoil:
The Lesson From Egypt

By Matthew Wild

Were the Egyptian people that bravely took to the streets to overthrow a tyrannical regime taking part in the world’s first peak oil revolution?

14 February, 2011

An Oil Shock In 2012?
By Steven R. Kopits

By the middle of 2012, spare capacity could be as low as 1 million b/d, or even less, if the Saudis decide to limit production at 10 million b/d. When surplus capacity falls below one million b/d, an oil shock cannot be precluded. Thus, in the better case, the world is facing tight oil markets in 2012

Excessive Optimism Is Our Enemy,
With Coal-To-Liquids As A Case Study

By Fabius Maximus

Confidence provides strengths for a society, but only when coupled with clear vision. Unfortunately modern America too-often too often sees the future only in terms of doomsters’ pessimism and advocates’ optimism. Here we have a case study of the latter

The Week Of The Game Changer In Oil,
Or Was It?

By Kurt Cobb

This past week was supposedly the week of the game changer in the world of oil. Leaked U.S. diplomatic cables from Saudi Arabia called into question the ability of the globe's largest oil exporter to raise production to satisfy a world increasingly thirsty for petroleum. In the United States a technique called hydraulic fracturing--which has seemingly unlocked vast natural gas resources--will now be applied to oil trapped in shale deposits. Are these two developments really the so-called game changers they are claimed to be?

13 February, 2011

Oil ‘Demand Has Met Supply’ –
Saudi Arabia (via Wikileaks)

By Matthew Wild

The question of Saudi Oil reserves, even if we think we know the answers, remains central to our own economies. It’s more than just the physical size of reserves, as the matter includes how fast the Saudis can bring oil to market, and whether they even do – oil set aside for home consumption never makes it that far, for example. It is also linked to the cost of food, and with it, the security of governments across the globe

04 February, 2011

Are We Running Out Of Oil?
By Bill McKibben, Noam Chomsky, Nicole Foss
& Richard Heinberg

An introduction to a video series from The Nation and On The Earth Productions. Bill McKibben, Noam Chomsky, Nicole Foss, Richard Heinberg and other scientists, researchers and writers explain the threat of Peak Oil

26 January, 2011

Preparing For Life In A Peak Oil World
By Gail Tverberg

We know that peak oil will be here soon, and we feel like we should be doing something. But what? It is frustrating to know where to start. In this chapter, we will discuss a few ideas about what we as individuals can do

30 December, 2010

The Peak Oil Crisis: 2011 – A Pivotal Year?
By Tom Whipple

Some are already saying that the IEA's forecast of a 1.3 million b/d increase for next year is much too low. The big unknown for the coming years is the size and availability of OPEC's spare capacity. If much of the 5 or 6 million b/d of productive capacity that OPEC claims to have in reserve does not really exist or cannot be opened in a timely manner, then much higher oil prices seem likely by spring

19 December, 2010

Peak Oil And Population Decline
By Peter Goodchild

Unfortunately there is no practical humane means of imposing a similar 6 percent annual rate of decline on the world’s population. If we let Nature, i.e. loss of petroleum, take its course, a decline of 6 percent would result in a drop in world population to half its present level, i.e. to 3.5 billion, by about the year 2020, a mere decade from now. The only means, however, would be a rather grim one: famine

17 December, 2010

Does Peak Oil Even Matter?
By David Murphy

The question is no longer "when will peak oil occur," but "how long will the effects of peak oil last?"

03 December, 2010

Oil And The Economy: Three Possible Scenarios
By Gail Tverberg

Three scenarios of we may be headed are presented (continued exponential growth, downturn based on geological decline, and a collapse scenario). The major problems foreseen are different in each these three scenarios, as are the likely solutions. This post gives a brief overview of how these differ

30 November, 2010

How Sustainable Is Renewable Energy?
By Roger Adair

Systems like solar water heating and PV, with no or few moving parts, should be more long lived until they too become unrepairable. However large and complex systems, particularly in remote and environmentally challenging environments such as wind farms, especially off shore, will probably be early renewable energy casualties of the decline in oil supply

25 November, 2010

It's Official: The Economy Is Set To Starve
By Chris Martenson

The IEA has known about looming Peak Oil issues for more than a decade and is only now explicitly recognizing the idea in their public documents. People inside and outside of the IEA say that the organization has downplayed both the timing and potential severity of Peak Oil. Peak Conventional Oil has already happened

The IEA’s New Peak
By Tom Whipple

As a document, WEO 2010 breaks some significant new ground both in calling the peak of conventional oil and the attention it focuses on the impact of carbon emissions. At the same time it offers succor to those who insist on denying the reality of the 21st century

23 November, 2010

Peak Oil Risks Becoming An Apocalyptic Cult
By Erik Curren

Rejecting the idea of community as wishful thinking is a direct assault on the optimism of people who accept peak oil but still think the future won't be either Mad Max or Waterworld

22 November, 2010

The Ultimate Roller Coaster Ride:
A Brief History of Fossil Fuels - Video

By Post Carbon Institute

Fossil fuels have powered human growth and ingenuity for centuries. Now that we're reaching the end of cheap and abundant oil and coal supplies, we're in for an exciting ride. While there's a real risk that we'll fall off a cliff, there's still time to control our transition to a post-carbon future

Escaping From The American
(And Canadian) Dream

By Peter Goodchild

The “stagflation” of the 1970s has returned: high prices and low wages. The difference is that this time it isn’t going to go away. In response, we must increase our income and decrease our expenses, although that’s easier said than done. The magic word is “frugality” or “thrift.”

19 November, 2010

Peak Oil: Why The Pentagon Is Pessimistic
By Matthieu Auzanneau

Two biannual reports, having appeared in 2008 and in 2010, describe the “environment” of the American Joint Chiefs of Staff. They occupy an important place, in this reporter’s opinion, among the recent analyses recognizing the eventuality (or stating the threat) of a fall in the world oil production between now and the middle of this decade

Oil Shock Warning To Government
From UK Business


An industry taskforce has called on the government to act to protect the UK economy against a new threat of rising oil prices. A consortium of British business, including retailers Kingfisher and transport group, Stagecoach, say the UK must prepare for the next oil shock

The Delusional People Who Want To
Frack This Country Up

By James Howard Kunstler

There are large deposits of methane gas locked into shale deposits roughly following the Appalachian mountain chain from New York State through Pennsylvania, West Virginia, into Ohio, but also hot spots out west. It's hard to get at. You have to basically blow up the shale rock deep underground with high pressure water that is loaded up with chemicals and sand particles to keep the rock fragments separated once they are blown apart. Chesapeake Energy specializes in this rock fracturing (or "fracking") method for drilling. You can get gas out of the ground this way. The question is how much, over what time period, at what cost

The Burden Of Knowing
By Charles Hugh Smith

The knowledge that the present is unsustainable is, for many of us, a great emotional burden. It troubles our sleep, our minds, and our basic emotional well-being. Knowledge, like memory, cannot be erased at will, and thus it runs in the background of our lives, unseen by others but deeply troubling to the knower

18 November, 2010

The Peak Oil Crisis: Did We Vote Ourselves
To Extinction?

By Tom Whipple

Some climate scientists say that an average global increase of 6o C will leave the earth uninhabitable. Long before we get there, rising sea levels, droughts, floods, storms and what have you will make life very unpleasant for those of us still around or our descendants. Someday, those who are left will wonder just what we were thinking about when we let all this happen

Straight Talk With James Howard Kunstler:
"The World Is Going To Get Rounder
And Bigger Again"

By Chris Martenson

I take issue with the Tom Friedman notion that the world has become permanently flat. The world is going to get rounder and bigger again. Ahead now, I think you'll see the big nations shrink back into their own corners of the world. I'm not saying we'll see no international trade, but it will be nothing like the conveyer belt from China to Wal-Mart that we've known the last few decades. And the prospects for conflict are very very high

16 November, 2010

The Age Of Cheap Oil Is Over
By Dr. Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed

We are now inhabiting a 'post-peak' world. That is the implication of the International Energy Agency's (IEA) new report, World Energy Outlook 2001, which in its 25-year 'New Policies Scenario' projects that it is most probable that conventional crude oil production "never regains its all-time peak of 70 million barrels per day reached in 2006." In this scenario, crude oil production is most likely to stay on a plateau of around 68-69 million barrels per day

Techno-Optimism Meets Its Match
By Guy R. McPherson

According to the extremely conservative International Energy Agency (IEA), we’ve passed the world peak for conventional oil (in 2006, they say). In a stunning nod to reality, even the New York Times agrees. In a bizarre case of committee-style cognitive dissonance, the IEA follows up on the admission that peak oil has come and gone with the conclusion that energy will never limit economic growth

Interview With Chris Martenson:
"Prepare For peak Oil While There Is Time"

By Alexander Ac

Dr. Chris Martenson says that the next 20 years will be very different from the last 20 years. Peak oil “will change everything” and there is never too soon for preparations. The key is resilience, self-dependency and versatility. He is an optimist and believes that many people will survive peak oil happily – if they prepare themselves. As all people researching peak oil and its impacts, he advises people to get out of debt

13 November, 2010

The End Of Growth
By Richard Heinberg

This article is an excerpt from Richard Heinberg's new book which has the working title 'The End of Growth' and is set for publication in July 2011. The central assertion of this book is both simple and startling: Economic growth as we have known it is over and done with

12 November, 2010

Global Oil Availability Has Peaked:
EU Energy Chief

By Reuters

The availability of oil worldwide has already peaked, the European Union's energy chief Guenther Oettinger said on Wednesday. "My fear is that the global consumption of oil is going to increase, but European oil consumption has already reached its peak. The amount of oil available globally, I think, has already peaked," Oettinger told a news briefing in Brussels

IEA World Energy Outlook 2010: Questionable
Assumptions And Major Omissions

By Gail Tverberg

The World Energy Outlook 2010 makes quite a number of assumptions that seem wrong, and omits important ideas. Here are a few that Oil Drum staff members have mentioned. You may have others you think should be added to the list

11 November, 2010

World Energy Outlook 2010 Is A Cry For Help
By Kjell Aleklett

In WEO 2010 the IEA presents facts that mean only one thing – the peak of oil production is imminent. By showing this data without announcing this obvious conclusion the IEA is making a cry for help to do what, for them, is politicly impossible. WEO 2010 is a cry for help to tell the truth about peak oil

10 November, 2010

IEA World Energy Outlook 2010 Now Out;
A Preliminary Look

By Gail Tverberg

The International Energy Agency issued its annual energy forecast today for 2010. It consists of a three volume report, plus an executive summary and a press release. In the next few weeks, we will be analyzing the report. At this point, we can only point to a few of the summary findings. One clear concern is that demand will be rising--especially from China and India. Another is that prices (in inflation-adjusted terms) will be rising. A third concern is that conventional oil production will no longer be able to rise

05 November, 2010

The Peak Oil Crisis: The Leading Edge
By Tom Whipple

Last week an organization in California, The Post Carbon Institute, released a new book, "The Post Carbon Reader," which draws a much broader picture of the serious issues facing mankind. The basic proposition of the book is that the world has reached the limits of growth in terms of its population, economic activity, and the ability of the atmosphere to absorb more carbon emissions. Either the world's peoples must transform themselves into a sustainable number living in a sustainable manner or there will be many dire consequences right up to the possibility that the human race itself could become extinct. Clearly, this is serious stuff

01 November, 2010

The Peak Oil Debate Is Over
By Dr. James Schlesinger

A transcription of Dr. James Schlesinger’s keynote address ASPO-Washington on Friday, October 8, 2010.: "The Peak Oil Debate is Over." Dr. Schlesinger served as Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission (1971-73), Secretary of Defense (1973-75), Director of the CIA and was the first Secretary of Energy (1977-79). He says peakists had won the intellectual argument, except for some minor details about precise timing. But acceptance by knowledgeable people is not enough. The political order should respond. Nonetheless, our willingness, let alone our ability, to do anything serious about the impending inability to increase oil output is still a long way off

26 October, 2010

How Reliable Are OPEC Estimates?
By Dave Cohen

So the next time these Persian Gulf countries don't answer the IEA's call on OPEC to produce more oil to prevent the price from getting into the stratosphere, as it did in mid-2008, you should remember that it's not for lack of oil—they've got over a trillion barrels now! And I'm sure there's more to come. OPEC will never run out of oil. And you thought the global economy was screwed up

21 October, 2010

"In America Most People Have No Conception
That Anything Can Really Change Radically"

By Alexander Ac, Karel Dolejsi & Tomas Hyjanek

Interview with John Michael Greer

15 October, 2010

Future Chaos: There Is No "Plan B"
By Chris Martenson

The hard news is that there is no "Plan B." The future is likely to be more chaotic than you probably think. This was the primary conclusion that I came to after attending the most recent Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO) in Washington, DC in October, 2010

13 October, 2010

The Witch Of Hebron And The Myth Of
Post-Peak Uniformity

By Carolyn Baker

A review of Peak Oil theorist James Howard Kunstler's novel "The Witch of Hebron"

02 October, 2010

Military Reports Leading The Charge
In Peak Oil Debate

By Matthew Wild

Another military report is targeting future oil supply concerns. Fueling the Future Force: Preparing the Department of Defense for a Post-Petroleum Environment, published September 27, is the third military consideration of a future of scarce oil published so far this year

Oil Analyst Tells Forbes: Peak Oil By 2017
By Matthew Wild

Respected oil analyst Charles Maxwell has told Forbes – and with it the North American business establishment – to brace itself for peak oil by “2017 or 2018.” Maxwell is rapidly becoming the new Matthew Simmons, an establishment peak oil whistleblower

Stages Of Peak Oil Awareness
By Kathy McMahon

Four and a half years ago, I began a research project to figure out what is a “normal” reaction to learning about Peak Oil, and this essay is a summary of what I’ve learned

29 September, 2010

Energy Security: An Annotated Military/Security Bibliography (2010 Update)
By Rick Munroe

A selected list of studies of various aspects of energy security (including peak oil) which have either been conducted by members of the military/security research community, or which raise issues with direct military/security relevance

UK Government's Oil Shock Warning
By Matthew Wild

A UK government minister is preparing for a coming global oil shock – a possible doubling of the price of oil. As Monday’s UK Daily Telegraph newspaper reported, "Energy Secretary, Chris Huhne, told the Liberal Democrat conference last week that in a world facing economic "shocks" it was possible that the price of oil would double from its current level of about $75 a barrel and that he had ordered his officials to look at the impact of a Seventies-style oil price spike on the British economy."

US Military Must Stop Using Oil In 30 Years,
Defense Think Tank Says

By Mason Inman

The success of the US military in coming decades will depend largely on the development of a world-wide system for producing a variety of biofuels, according to a new report released today. That way, the military can stay refueled and able to operate anywhere, even when petroleum supplies are tight. "Fueling the Future Force", by the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), a think tank based in Washington, D.C., makes a set of recommendations for the Department of Defense about how it can move toward running without any petroleum in 30 years' time

23 September, 2010

The End Of The World As We Know It In 10 Years?
By Dr. Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed

While we may not be able to stop various catastrophes and collapse-processes from occurring, we still retain an unprecedented opportunity to envisage an alternative vision for a new, sustainable and equitable form of post-carbon civilization.The imperative now is for communities, activists, scholars and policymakers to initiate dialogue on the contours of this vision, and pathways to it

18 September, 2010

‘Peak Oil’ : Jimmy Carter’s Secretary Of Energy
Sounds The Alarm

By Matthieu Auzanneau

James Schlesinger, President Carter’s Energy Secretary, wrote the foreword to a book written by Dr Robert Hirsch, a former US official who predicts a fall of the oil production within 5 years. Never before has a high-ranking political figure like Schlesinger gave his support to such a prognosis

The Peak Oil Crisis: Is $50 Oil In The Offing?
By Tom Whipple

It is to delay the realization of what is about to happen on the part of the general public for as long as possible, is what motivates the debunkers. Until the day when declines in global oil production become too obvious to deny we will continue to read stories about $50 oil

14 September, 2010

Battle Of The Think Tanks In Peak Oil Reports
By Matthew Wild

Two think tanks, on different sides of the world, published peak oil reports earlier this month – generating very different levels of media and web coverage

Interview With Bob Hirsch On His Team’s
New Book—“The Impending World Energy Mess”

By Steve Andrews

Robert L. Hirsch, Roger Bezdek and Robert Wendling have coauthored a new publication, this time a book called “The Impending World Energy Mess: What It Is and What It Means to You,” a book to be released by publisher Apogee Prime late this month

30 August, 2010

How Should Progressives Respond
To The End Of The Oil Age?

By Erik Lindberg

It is highly unlikely that the cheap, easily accessed, highly portable, relatively safe and stable and, most importantly, highly dense and concentrated fossil fuels upon which we have built our entire world, can ever be reproduced by any other source

26 August, 2010

The Simple Future Beyond Oil: The Convergence Of
Our Economic And Ecological Futures
And The Importance Of Change

By Paul Mobbs

Change is essential, but also inevitable because we can no longer maintain our global levels of consumption and pollution. Whilst once rigidly separate, the economic and ecological world are now converging to recognise the impending restrictions on “business as usual”39. How we deal with consumption is a physical issue, but it's also a spiritual one. We can change brands, or the way we buy things, but the most important thing to change is our view of ourselves – the reason we consume in the first place

24 August, 2010

Major Reports Point To Oil Supply Turmoil
And Price Volatility

By Matthew Wild

Major energy reports published this year are pointing to a significant rise in the price of oil due to supply constraints sometime over the next three years – the only disagreement is how soon

19 August, 2010

What If There’s Much Less Coal Than We Think?
By David Roberts

The current issue of the scientific journal Energy contains "A global coal production forecast with multi-Hubbert cycle analysis," by Tad Patzek and Gregory Croft. (Just the name gives you a tingle, right?) It's somewhat technical, but the main point is fairly clear: A realistic look at coal reserves yields grim results. The global peak of coal production from existing coalfields is predicted to occur close to the year 2011

Peak Everything: Preface To The Paperback Edition
By Richard Heinberg

In titling this book “Peak Everything,” I was suggesting that humanity has achieved an unsustainable pinnacle of population size and consumption rates, and that the road ahead will be mostly downhill—at least for the next few decades, until our species has learned to live within Earth’s resource limits

18 August, 2010

IEA: ‘Cheap Oil Is Over’ As Demand Approaches
New Record

By Matthew Wild

According to the IEA’s latest Oil Market Report, published August 11, global demand will reach 86.6 million barrels per day in 2010, and then 87.9 million barrels per day in 2011, assuming a continuing global economic recovery. This means demand is set to pass the all-time high of 86.9 million barrels per day established in 2008 before the global economic downturn

Time To Terminate Western Civilization
Before It Terminates Us

By Guy R. McPherson

This essay provides a brief overview of the dire nature of our predicaments with respect to fossil fuels. The primary consequences of our fossil-fuel addiction stem from two primary phenomena: peak oil and global climate change. The former spells the end of western civilization, which might come in time to prevent the extinction of our species at the hand of the latter. Global climate change threatens our species with extinction by mid-century is we do not terminate the industrial economy soon

Dwindling Fossil Fuels And Our Food System
By Lester R. Brown

The relationship between energy and food is unsustainable, given the prospect of peak oil production. How long can we depend on fossil fuels to facilitate the transfer of food from farm to fork?

10 August, 2010

Matthew Simmons: A Tribute
By Matthew Wild

Energy Investment banker and leading peak oil proponent Matthew Simmons died suddenly on Sunday [Aug. 8], following an apparent heart attack

08 August, 2010

Different Takes On Peak Oil, Same Result –
Price Spikes Predicted

By Matthew Wild

Two must-read interviews with energy market investors both point to a coming demand-driven spike in oil prices, despite professing differing views on peak oil. Rick Rule, founder of Global Resource Investments, Ltd., speaks of “sharply higher world oil prices in the next 5 years,” and Charles Maxwell, senior energy analyst for Weeden & Co. that “oil will reach at least $150 a barrel around 2015.”

31 July, 2010

Peak Food: Can Another Green Revolution Save Us?
By Nicholas C. Arguimbau

The Green Revolution was a one shot deal, because we cannot again double irrigate acreage or multipy use of chemical fertilizers by five; and because the Green Revolution was a program of the oil age, which is fast departing. Modest crop-yield increases may keep up with population growth for a while, but all indications are that the prices of what food there is will rapidly climb above the budgets of billions of us

World Oil Reserves At Tipping Point

World oil reserves at tipping point warns Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment

27 July, 2010

The End Of Capitalism
By Alex Knight

The End of Capitalism Theory argues that capitalism will not be able to overcome these limits to growth, and therefore it is only a matter of time before we are living in a non-capitalist world. A paradigm shift towards a new society is underway

In The World And Church
By Robert Jensen

Perhaps we should remember that our word “apocalypse” is from the Greek “apokalypsis,” which means an uncovering or lifting of the veil. We might think of this as an apocalyptic moment, one in which scientific knowledge and our personal experiences allow us to lift the veil on the unsustainability of the systems in which we live

The Church, The Peak, And My Old Watch
By Ugo Bardi

An old watch, peak oil, peak everything and life of the future generations

Geologist Berman: Shale Gas Reserves 'Substantially Overstated'

The gross resource from shale is probably about 7 years worth of supply

You Can Be A BILLIONAIRE Without Even Trying!
By Richard Heinberg

This is the Introduction to an inspirational / financial-advice / environmental / diet / dating / self-help / survivalist / humor book that I started to write—and quickly decided should never be finished. Maybe I shouldn’t have taken it even this far. You be the judge

24 July, 2010

It's A Race To Failure Between Rogue States
And Global Oil Output

By Matthew Wild

Dwindling global oil supplies are leaving the world ever more reliant on a group of unstable countries – many of which are themselves facing major domestic problems right now

What Does King Abdullah Know?
By Jeff Rubin

No matter where you look, it is becoming increasingly clear that tomorrow’s oil supply is going to come from very different places than today’s. Providing, of course, that it comes at all

The Risks Of Fiddling
By Guy R McPherson

So far, USA has been very easy on people (especially Caucasians), one of the consequences of ready access to inexpensive oil. But that’s changing, and it’s about to change much faster. You can either get in front of the changes or you can let them roll over you. Think steamroller, and you’re a duck in a leg-hold trap

22 July, 2010

The Peak Oil Crisis: Thinking About China
By Tom Whipple

Chin has embarked on multiple programs to increase the efficiency of its energy use, increase production of renewable energy, and to buy up at top dollar as much foreign coal, oil and natural gas production as anybody is willing to sell them. This will in turn prove to be a major problem for the oil importing OECD countries that will see their sources of foreign oil disappear more quickly than anticipated

Projection Of World Fossil Fuel Production
With Supply And Demand Interactions

By Steve Mohr

The fossil fuel production projections from this study suggest that many of the IPCC fossil fuel projections appear overly optimistic. Based on the assumed URR values, it is predicted that global fossil fuel production will peak before 2030. For this reason, it is imperative that appropriate action be taken as early as possible to mitigate the effects of fossil fuel decline, to avoid energy shortages in the near future

21 July, 2010

Lloyd's Sustainable Energy Security White Paper -
Some Hits; Some Misses

By Gail Tverberg

Lloyd's hired Chatham House to prepare a white paper on the risks of peak oil called Sustainable Energy Security: Strategic risks and opportunities for business. It seems to me that this new report gets quite a few things right, but it misleads in the direction of thinking things are better than they really are, when it comes to timing and alternatives

18 July, 2010

Over A Barrel: Peak Oil per Capita
By Peter Goodchild

Most people have enough trouble dealing with the reality of peak oil. What is generally left out is the fact that it’s not really peak oil that matters, anyway, but peak oil per capita, the date of which was 1979. In that year there were 5.5 barrels of oil available for each person on Earth; by 2009 it had gone down to 4.3

15 July, 2010

BP And The peak: Delusions Of
Oil Grandeur Persist

By Brendan Barrett

The BP oil spill disaster in the Gulf of Mexico should act as a wake-up call for a world economy so completely and utterly dependent on oil. It is time to say goodbye and end our love affair with oil as a fuel for economic growth

07 July, 2010

Peak Oil, Time, And Population
By Peter Goodchild

We begin with two basic facts. The first is that the world’s present annual consumption of oil is nearly 30 billion barrels. The second is that the world’s present population is nearly 7 billion. From there we can add some reasonable estimates of both oil decline and population decline

29 June, 2010

Natural Gas As Panacea: Dubious Path
To A Green Future

By Daniel B. Botkin

Maintaining our high standard of living, our creative and innovative civilization, will not come easily. It needs lots of energy. It’s the great challenge of the future that must be approached openly, beyond special interests and ideologies. We can do it — there is a safe, sustainable, abundant-energy future. The question is, will we do it? Do we have the political will, the funding for inventiveness, and a government sufficiently independent of special interests for this to happen?

Creating A Post-Peak Future You Want To Live Into
By Andre Angelantoni

The future most people are living into is beginning to disappear. The financial crisis threw the first punch, but oil depletion will deliver the knockout blow

28 June, 2010

The End Of Oil, And Government
By Jan Lundberg

Many changes for the better can result from the terrible dislocations caused by petrocollapse, but to maximize the positive it would help if much more public discussion and planning happened -- whether one is a flag-waving anti-immigration Republican or a pagan member of a Unitarian fellowship. We’re all in the same boat, and can see the oil slick and smell the methane escaping

The Journey From Anger To Anguish:
Responding To Eco-Cide

By Carolyn Baker

In the process of preparing emotionally to navigate the coming chaos, it is crucial to examine each stage of grief, to note where we have been in the process, to look at where we are in the moment, and to honor each emotion along the way

07June, 2010

Imminent Oil Shortages Ahead
By Lionel Badal

In a March 2010 interview with the French journalist Auzanneau, Glen Sweetnam made some unusually bold comments about the coming oil crisis and, coincidence or not, he soon after left the EIA “on a yearlong reassignment”. Officially at least, this was not related to his declarations

25 May, 2010

How The Global Oil Watchdog Failed Its Mission
By Lionel Badal

Peak Oil researcher Lionel Badal reveals how the IEA team working on the World Energy Outlook discovered that Peak Oil was a real threat, 12 years ago, how the team issued a “coded warning” in the 1998 World Energy Outlook Report , how the message was uncovered in a 1999 article published in Prospect magazine, how the IEA team who made the discovery was “knocked down” under pressures from the US, which didn’t like the message the 1998 WEO contained. and how Dr. Fatih Birol, the current Chief-Economist of the IEA, secretly confirmed in 1999 that global oil production would start to decline around 2014 (in other words, Peak Oil)

22 May, 2010

The B.S. Factor In Post-Industrial Society
By Peter Goodchild

The b.s. that I’ve heard over the last couple of years is immeasurable. If I point out that the world’s nearly seven billion humans will have to be reduced to less than a billion in a few decades, what I generally face is a torrent of ad-hominem arguments to the effect that I am a heartless Nazi butcher and murderer

13 May, 2010

After Money
By John Michael Greer

Most people won’t have the option of separating themselves completely from the money economy for many years to come; as long as today’s governments continue to function, they will demand money for taxes, and money will continue to be the gateway resource for many goods and services, including some that will be very difficult to do without. Still, there’s no reason why distancing oneself from the tertiary economy has to be an all-or-nothing thing

Peak Soil: It's Like Peak Oil, Only Worse
By Matthew Wild

The world is facing a hydrocarbons peak, right as we are beginning to struggle with soil, the nutrients required for large scale agriculture, environmental change and availability of water. When you put the disparate elements together, it begins to look like a perfect storm

11 May, 2010

It's Worse Than You Think:
Plotting Global Hydrocarbon Collapse

By Matthew Wild

When oil peaks, and the price rises, it may well cause our fragile, debt-ridden economies to collapse. But the worst will be yet to come. When other energy sources subsequently peak, we will be left with no affordable “bridge fuel” to carry us to a sustainable, renewable future. In addition, whereas oil is mainly used in transportation, natural gas and coal together account for the generation of 60 per cent of our electricity, according to EIA figures. If the grid goes down, modern life is over

10 May, 2010

The Century Of Famine
By Peter Goodchild

Famine caused by petroleum supply failure alone will result in about 2.5 billion above-normal deaths before the year 2050; lost and averted births will amount to roughly an equal number

09 May, 2010

The Imminent Collapse Of Industrial Society
By Peter Goodchild

What seems the best general concept of human society later in this century is not easy to formulate. People with the information and skills required for supplying themselves and their community with food and shelter can certainly be called survivalists, even if there should be a better label

Don't Wait Until The $#!+ Hits The fan
By Mickey Foley

It's hard to convince people we're in the early stages of collapse when things are still pretty good. Only when we have trouble meeting our basic needs will we begin to seriously question and fundamentally reform our society. And I believe, passionately, that we need to begin this process ASAP, while there are still enough fossil fuels, water and other natural resources to support 6.8 billion people. So my message is this: Don't wait until the $#!+ hits the fan, because by then it could be too late

Another Wake-Up Call For The World’s
Biggest Oil Junkie

By Chris Nelder

The explosion and destruction of the Horizon deepwater rig and the subsequent oil spill disaster are only the latest in a series of wake-up calls you’ve received. Are you listening now?

Will Peak Oil Turn Flying Into Something
Only Rich People Can Afford?

By Sam Kornell

Expert physicist: 'At $150 dollars a barrel, the air industry is barely viable. At $200 a barrel, it’s going to [be] something that only rich people do.'

06 May, 2010

Peak Oil: Let The Hollow Media Optimism
Sound A Warning

By Matthew Wild

Perhaps I’m spending too long refuting this silly piece of journalism. I know it’s a politically motivated column in a paper with its own agenda. But it’s not a one-off. And if nothing else, the fact that these clearly biased pieces keep coming out, telling us that we have nothing to fear, actually makes me alarmed. After all, there’s nothing like being told there’s no cause for panic to make you start to wonder if the shit isn’t about to hit the fan, big time

05 May, 2010

Industry Leaders Seem To Be Showing
More Openness To Energy Descent Issues

By George Mobus

I introduced ideas relating to peak net energy, and the possibility of major changes in the years ahead. I found industry leaders much more open than I had expected to listening to and understanding our energy predicament, and talking about what may be ahead

Worse Than 1789?
By James Howard Kunstler

The France of 1789 and the USA of today have a few important elements in common: a striking inability to sort out any national problems, an arrogant, depraved ruling elite resistant to reform, and an intellectual underclass motivated by blind fury. Some signal differences: most of our even theoretically best-intentioned "leaders" -- i.e. elected officials, business, education, and media figures -- are unable to articulate the problems we face. Paul Krugman and David Brooks have no more of a clue about the implications of Peak Oil than Rush Limbaugh and Sarah Palin

04 May, 2010

Why Do Peak Oilers And Climate Changers
Not Get Along Better?

By David Roberts

I just find the sociocultural (and academic) interaction between peak oilers and climate types fascinating. You'd think it would be a natural alliance, but in practice it seems to tend more toward mutual disinterest or even hostility. What's up with that?

Peak Oil And The Catastrophe
In The Gulf Of Mexico

By Kjell Aleklett

he discussion is continuing around the world, (a search for “peak oil” just now gave 1,470,000 hits), but there are very few political initiatives and we can justifiably say that the politicians are not accepting their responsibility. The question is whether the opportunity now exists to make Peak Oil a global political question?

Optimism Versus Reality In Peak Oil Media Battle
By Matthew Wild

The optimists may have long been winning the peak oil media battle – as Matt Simmons observes – but we are beginning to see information coming out on the business pages that allows us to piece together a more balanced story

03 May, 2010

The Peak Of Oil Production Is Passed
By Dr Michael Lardelli

Dr Michael Lardelli from the University of Adelaide looks at how the bulk of the world's oil production comes from a relatively small number of very large fields discovered decades ago. The rate of world oil production has been maintained at current levels only by finding and bringing on line an increasing number of smaller fields, but the financial cost and the energy required to find and develop these new fields is constantly increasing. According to Dr Lardelli the so-called peak of oil production was actually in 2008

30 April, 2010

Why Would Big Oil Ignore Its Own Demise?
By John James

Denial that there is a problem until the last moment ensures that a few corporations will exercise long-term political and financial control over the globe and everyone on it. Its not about money, its about hegemony and power!

26 April, 2010

What Works, Maybe: Individual Options
By Guy R. McPherson

What’s an individual to do, in light of the imminent collapse of western civilization? In addition to hastening the collapse, some tools for which I’ve listed before, I describe four points along a continuum for your own, individual, post-carbon future: (1) transition towns, (2) agricultural anarchy, (3) hunting and gathering, and (4) traveling. I will describe each approach, briefly, as a means of generating thought, action, and perhaps even discussion

23 April, 2010

The Imminent Crash Of Oil Supply:
Be Afraid, Very Afraid

By Nicholas C. Arguimbau

A graph drawn by the United States Department of Energy, and the United States military's Joint Forces Command indicates that world oil supply is going off a cliff. Not in the distant future, but in a year and a half. Production of all liquid fuels, including oil, will drop within 20 years to half what it is today

20 April, 2010

A 'Watershed Month For The Truth About Peak Oil'
By Matthew Wild

By any measure, March was a watershed month for the truth about peak oil. Estimates on the timing of the peak have narrowed dramatically, and now center on the 2012-2015 time frame. The range of estimates on the peak rate of production remain a bit broader and shrouded in caveats, but they are rapidly drawing closer to 90 mbpd. And the globally averaged, post-peak annual decline rates are settling in around 2%

19 April, 2010

Pentagon Alert From ... 2008:
"Towards A "Severe Energy Crisis"

By Matthieu Auzanneau

The report of the United States Joint Forces Command, the Joint Operating Environment for 2008 already offered the same diagnosis, word for word (p. 17): By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD

WhenThe U.S. Energy Secretary Spoke Of
"Peak Oil" ...

By Matthieu Auzanneau

The U.S. Secretary of Energy, Steven Chu, knows and understands the issues of global peak oil production. During a talk he gave in March 2005 as director of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, a U.S. Department of Energy National Laboratory, a U.S. Department of Energy National Laboratory, Steven Chu advanced the hypothesis of an imminent decline in world production of liquid fuels

Peak Ego And The Ego Descent Plan
By Bob Banner

For me it appears to be a logical result to speak of peak ego, especially since cheap oil gave rise to affluence which in turn gave rise to more separation, separation in the meaning that affluence has offered us NOT to need each other the way tribal communities in the past did but a lifestyle that separates us from the inherent wisdom of interdependence. When we have reached the ultimate separation perhaps we have reached peak ego. How more separate can one become? How much more ego can we have before the level of “happiness” runs out?

Forever And A Day
By Kurt Cobb

Talk with many green technology advocates and you might get the impression that we have forever and a day to make the transition from an unsustainable society to a sustainable one. But the most critical question is how much time we have to make the transition. A fully equipped hospital with on-duty surgeons and staff may be the ideal technology for a critically injured patient. But they mean little to such a patient if we are in the position of having to build the hospital and train the surgeons and staff before administering treatment

16 April, 2010

Peak Oil: Surveying The Field And Charting A Course
By Guy R. McPherson

It’s all the rage to talk about a double-dip in the industrial economy. That would be an economic trend in the shape of a W. I think an M is far more likely. The assumption of never-ending growth underlies all neoclassical economic assessments, but I think that assumption is about to break up on the shore of resource limitations

12 April, 2010

US Military Warns Oil Output May Dip
Causing Massive Shortages By 2015

By Terry Macalister

Surplus oil production capacity could disappear by 2012, says a report from US Joint Forces Command. Shortfall could reach 10m barrels a day. Cost of crude oil is predicted to top $100 a barrel

How Much Oil Is Left
By Lars Schall

Interview with Richard Heinberg

10 April, 2010

Peak Oil: Are We Heading Towards Social Collapse?
By Emily Spence

We collectively have to stop our delusions about perpetual economic growth and find another way to live from this point forward. We need to stop pretending that all is well because our myopic view of life shows no oil or other major shortfalls in the very near future. If we do not face up to the truth, the repercussions are clear

The Peak Oil Crisis: Countdown At The Guri
By Tom Whipple

Water flow to Venezuela's great Guri dam this past summer has been dismal. Any fall in electricity generation from this dam can have devastating consequences for America's petroleum import from Venezuela

03 April, 2010

Post-Peak Oil Reality Trumps Right Wing Trend
By Jan Lundberg

As we cannot control collapse that must stem largely from the loss of cheap, abundant energy -- a process already begun -- it is time to put our "political" energy into building local economies and forming our family-neighborhood tribes for the tough future and eventual sustainable culture ahead. This will help prepare everyone for the post-peak oil dissolution of the U.S. as we know it -- no matter who next holds the White House or is kissing the ass of today's Wall Street elite

30 March, 2010

Washington Considers A Decline Of
World Oil Production As Of 2011

By Matthieu Auzanneau

The U.S. Department of Energy admits that “a chance exists that we may experience a decline” of world liquid fuels production between 2011 and 2015 “if the investment is not there”, according to an exclusive interview with Glen Sweetnam, main official expert on oil market in the Obama administration

Quacks Like A Duck
By Richard Heinberg

What doe Glen Sweetnam actually admits? "We don't believe that world oil production will soon reach a maximum and begin to decline (the "peak oil theory"); instead, we believe that world oil production will reach a maximum, stay there for a few years, and then decline. That decline could commence as soon as next year."

25 March, 2010

Government ‘Peak Oil Summit’ Starts The Process Of Government Acknowledging Peak Oil?
By Rob Hopkins

On Monday Peter Lipman and I represented Transition Network at an event which could potentially be the day people look back to as the day when UK government finally starting to ‘get’ peak oil. Fascinating and frustrating in equal measure, the event, “Policy Response to potential future oil supply constraints”, was billed as “a half-day workshop hosted by the Energy Institute in partnership with the Department of Energy and Climate Change

The Peak Oil Crisis: A Breakthrough?
By Tom Whipple

It came as a surprise that last weekend Britain's Energy Minister summoned a meeting of business leaders to discuss the government's response to a decline in global oil production should it actually be imminent

20 March, 2010

It's Time To Deal With Peak Oil
By Richard Heinberg

What should we do about Peak Oil? Start with what the U.K. Industry Task Force on Peak Oil (which included Sir Richard Branson of Virgin Airlines) has done: Acknowledge the reality of supply limits. Then study the vulnerabilities of transport and food systems to high and volatile oil prices, and start making those systems more resilient and less oil-dependent. But do it fast. Adaptation will take decades, and we are starting very late

18 March, 2010

Peak Oil In Four Years?
Mobility And Economic Vulnerabilities

By Warren Karlenzig

Last week, a report was put out by a Kuwaiti research institution forecasting global peak oil production by 2014. This follows a report last month by a broad-based British industry group that also predicted a global "oil crunch," or shortage of supply, by the same period

04 March, 2010

Life After Growth
By Richard Heinberg

We are in for some very hard times. The transitional period on our way toward a post-growth, equilibrium economy will prove to be the most challenging time any of us has ever lived through. Nevertheless, I am convinced that we can survive this collective journey, and that if we make sound choices as families and communities, life can actually be better for us in the decades ahead than it was during the heady days of seemingly endless economic expansion

23 February, 2010

Saudi Arabia Preparing For Oil Demand To Peak
By Tarek El Tablawy

A top Saudi energy official expressed serious concern Monday that world oil demand could peak in the next decade and said his country was preparing for that eventuality by diversifying its economic base

22 February, 2010

The Peak Oil Crisis: The Crunch
By Tom Whipple

An interesting sidelight to the new report's official launch was that Chris Barton, the government official responsible for Britain's energy security, showed up and answered questions about the government's position. In what can be best characterized as backing down the flag pole, Barton acknowledged that the government really does not know when peak oil will occur but acknowledged the risks could be serious. For a government that until recently had been in complete denial that is more evidence that the message and dangers of peak oil are sinking in

21 February, 2010

Bank Of America And Barclays
See Looming Oil Crunch

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Bank of America and Barclays Capital, two leading oil traders, have told clients to brace for crude above $100 a barrel by next year, before it pushes relentlessly higher over the decade. "Oil has the potential to flirt with $100 this year. We forecast an average price of $137 by 2015," said Amrita Sen, an oil expert at BarCap

Joe Stack And Likely Coming Attractions
By Carolyn Baker

Most of us have heard it by now-software engineer torches his own house then crashes his private plane into an IRS office in Austin, Texas on February 18, 2010. In the same week as Stack's rampage, an Ohio man so enraged about his home being foreclosed upon, bulldozed the house so that the bank would not be able to repossess it. It doesn't take rocket science to grasp that these eruptions of vitriolic rage are most likely, previews of massive civil unrest worldwide, as individuals and families awaken to the current ghastly global transfer of wealth

15 February, 2010

Viral Collapse
By Guy R. McPherson

Even as the greatest economic implosion in world history accelerates, the underlying cause — peak oil — remains chronically under-reported. Nonetheless, Sir Richard Branson finally is warning that the peak-oil crunch will be worse than the credit crunch (thereby failing to recognize the importance of the former in creating the latter), the Wall Street Journal is warning us to prepare for peak oil, and British oil companies and CEOs are sounding the alarm

11 February, 2010

The Coming Oil Crunch
By Jeremy Leggett

Warnings of a crash in oil production are no longer limited to a prescient few individuals - major British companies and oil CEOs are now sounding the alert

23 January, 2010

Dealing With Peak Oil
By Salvatore Cardoni & Dr. Brian Schwartz

Peak oil is going to fundamentally change the way we live. We will be dragged there kicking, screaming, and resisting, but we will get there nonetheless. We will live in different communities, in different houses, eat differently, get around differently, and get our energy from much different sources. I think much of what is coming will provide us with benefits – better diets, better health, stronger communities--so I am not a pessimist about this issue

09 January, 2010

Is The World's Oil Running Out Fast?
By Adam Porter

BBC report from the Peak Oil conference in Berlin

27 December, 2009

Oil And Environment: A Contradiction
By Peter Goodchild

The issue of peak oil and that of the environment are mutually exclusive problems. As oil and other fossil fuels disappear, the environmental problems will also go away, even if very slowly. By trying to raise the alarm about both issues at once, we are placing ourselves in a self-contradictory position, and our credibility is rapidly undermined

Where To Live In Tough Times
By Peter Goodchild

As various chunks of the planet collapse, one big question is, “Should I start packing my bags?” There is probably no perfectly rational way for choosing a place to live, and we may well end up choosing the same country in which we have spent the most years.Nevertheless, if we are brave enough, or if we have already done some traveling, the factors listed below may be those we want to consider

20 December, 2009

Crime In The Post Peak World
By Peter Goodchild

As humanity plunges ever more deeply into the age of declining resources, what will be the future of law and order? The particular problem of which I am thinking might be called, more specifically, "future violence," since other acts that are now deemed criminal may seem trivial in later days. Unfortunately all discussion of violence becomes an emotional issue, and a rational answer may be elusive

16 December, 2009

Peak Oil, Peak Food
By Aetius Romulous

The single greatest challenge facing our modern economic food chain is the insanely unnatural low cost of food to the consumer, making the simple and necessary act of eating dependent on food that is almost free. The global edifice of cheap food rests on the volatility of a single input; the exponentially depleting supply of easy, cheap oil. We are gorging ourselves at the $1.99 all-you-can-eat oil buffet. Food is too cheap, a "correction" is coming, and there is not a damn thing anybody can do about it

08 December, 2009

IEA Forecasts Stir Debate
By Saadallah Al Fathi

The most important question regarding the oil forecast is the alarming view of the IEA that the majority of oil production in 2030 will be coming from "fields yet to be developed or found".The IEA goes on to say "sustained investment is needed mainly to combat the decline in output at existing fields, which will drop by almost two-thirds by 2030"

22 November, 2009

Historic Peak Oil Motion Defeated
In Australian Senate

By Dr Gideon Polya

The Australian Greens recently attempted to introduce what, to the best of my knowledge may be the first ever Peak Oil motion introduced into a national assembly. Unfortunately the motion was defeated 31 to 6

20 November, 2009

World Energy And Population: Trends To 2100
By Paul Chefurka

All the research I have done for this paper has convinced me that the human race is now out of time. We are staring at hard limits on our activities and numbers, imposed by energy constraints and ecological damage. There is no time left to mitigate the situation, and no way to bargain or engineer our way out of it. It is what it is, and neither Mother Nature nor the Laws of Physics are open to negotiation

America's Pending Collapse
By Timothy V. Gatto

I’m really not an alarmist, but I see the merit of what so many scientists are predicting. Not only will Peak Oil stop economic growth, but climate change according to a UN report will bring desertification to 70% of the planet by 2025. Maybe petroleum peaking out is in reality what may save our planet. Maybe a return to simpler ways to live and work will stop the CO2 emissions, but I don’t think so

19 November, 2009

Should We Prop Up A Dying Economy?
By Richard Heinberg

Rather than attempting to prop up banks and insurance companies with trillions in bailouts, it would probably be better simply to let them fail, however nasty the short-term consequences, since they will fail anyway sooner or later. The sooner they are replaced with institutions that serve essential functions within a contracting economy, the better off we will all be

17 November, 2009

Too Late To Prepare For Peak Oil?
By George Monbiot

It’s probably too late to prepare for peak oil, but we can at least try to salvage food production

Peak Oil: IEA Knew It Long Ago
By Colin Campbell

Colin Campbell's Response To The Guardian IEA Reporting

Searching For A Miracle: 'Net Energy’ Limits
And The Fate Of Industrial Society

By Post Carbon Institute &
International Forum on Globalization

The fundamental disturbing conclusion of the report is that there is little likelihood that either conventional fossil fuels or alternative energy sources can reliably be counted on to provide the amount and quality of energy that will be needed to sustain economic growth—or even current levels of economic activity—during the remainder of the current century

16 November, 2009

Too Fearful To Publicise Peak Oil Reality
By Madeleine Bunting

What the 2008 edition of World Energy Outlook report made blindingly clear was that peak oil was somewhere in 2008/9 and that production from currently producing fields was about to drop off a cliff. Fields yet to be developed and yet to be found enabled a plateau of production and it was only "non-conventional oil" which enabled a small rise. Think tar sands of Canada, think some of the most climate polluting oil extraction methods available. Think catastrophe

14 November, 2009

The Fallacy Of Alternative Energy
By Peter Goodchild

To say that the coming centuries will be a challenge would be an enormous understatement. Perhaps in a future scriptorium, when the facts and legends about the present era are being scratched onto parchment, there will be a chance to reflect on the foolishness of spending time on electric toys and magic tricks, when so much of more practical value could have been done to mitigate the ravages of famine, plague, and war

11 November, 2009

Can We Handle The Truth?
By Guy R McPherson

The International Energy Agency (IEA) released World Energy Outlook 2009 today. Even before the sham was shipped, it was exposed as a big 'ol bucket of lies. Seems the current administration thinks Americans can't handle the truth, so we need to apply some pressure to keep the lid on the facts

10 November, 2009

Key Oil Figures Were Distorted By US Pressure,
Says Whistleblower

By Terry Macalister

The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying

From The Wilderness To The End Of Civilization
By Carolyn Baker

Carolyn Baker reviews Mike Ruppert's peak oil movie "Collapse"

03 November, 2009

By Guy R McPherson

Nine more banks failed last weekend, bringing the year's total to 115. Along with the banks, one of the largest companies in the country declared bankruptcy, further evidence every large entity in the world will go down with energy availability. Small businesses are joining the fiesta, declaring bankruptcy like Zimbabweans, and the mother of all carry trades is headed for a collapse the size of hell and half of Montana

30 October, 2009

The Recession Is Dead ... Long Live The Recession!
By Guy R McPherson

The world's first peak-oil recession has come to a close, according to third-quarter numbers invented by the federal government. Apparently dumping trillions of dollars onto big banks, insurance companies, and automobile manufacturers interrupted the plummeting descent of American Empire. The stock markets skyrocketed expectedly. Predictably, so did the commodities markets

26 October, 2009

The End Of Electricity
By Peter Goodchild

There seems to be a consensus that the depletion of fossil fuels will follow a fairly impressive slope. What may need to be looked at more closely, however, is not the "when" but the "what." Looking at the temporary shortages of the 1970s may give us the impression that the most serious consequence will be lineups at the pump. Fossil-fuel decline, however, will also mean the end of electricity, a far more serious matter

09 October, 2009

Era of Cheap, Easy Oil is Over
By Louise Gray

The world could start to run out of oil in the next ten years, sparking soaring energy prices and a rush for even more polluting fossil fuels, an influential new study by the UK Energy Research Council has warned

29 September, 2009

Systemic Collapse: The Basics
By Peter Goodchild

Systemic collapse has one overwhelming cause: world overpopulation. All of the flash-in-the-pan ideas that are presented as solutions to the modern dilemma — solar power, ethanol, hybrid cars, desalination, permaculture — have value only as desperate attempts to solve an underlying problem that has never been addressed in a more direct manner

Balance Is For Buddhists
By Guy R McPherson

Instead of extracting an easy life from fossil fuels and human slaves, while taking our life-support system down into the bowels of hell with us, let's try living as our predecessors did on this land. Never mind abandoning our beloved cars: In North and South America, we'll need to give up the wheel

23 September, 2009

The Era Of Xtreme Energy
By Michael T. Klare

We are going to enter an age of Xtreme energy and the last-ditch efforts to keep our world on its normal course are likely to devastate the environment, accelerate climate change, inflict widespread pain, and create global conflict. It's not a pretty picture

23 August, 2009

Peak Oil And The Generation Gap
By Peter Goodchild

The more we look at the fragility of money, then, it seems that the young survivalist with his army-manual reprints may not be living in a world so different from that of the wealthy pensioner who looks at oil depletion as a question of how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. Those who put their faith in the money economy were lucky enough to start saving cash in easier times. For young people today, however, working at a job that provides any savings can be a grim struggle. The two generations need to have more sympathy for each other. We are all heading into the same wilderness

05 August, 2009

Oil Supplies Are Running Out Fast
By Steve Connor

The first detailed assessment of more than 800 oil fields in the world, covering three quarters of global reserves, has found that most of the biggest fields have already peaked and that the rate of decline in oil production is now running at nearly twice the pace as calculated just two years ago. On top of this, there is a problem of chronic under-investment by oil-producing countries, a feature that is set to result in an "oil crunch" within the next five years which will jeopardise any hope of a recovery from the present global economic recession

19 July, 2009

Investigate Peak Oil Urgently
By Phyllis Sladek

An online petition calling on national academy of sciences to study peak oil urgently

15 July, 2009

Peak Oil And The Remaking Of Iraq
By Michael T. Klare

Has it all come to this? The wars and invasions, the death and destruction, the exile and torture, the resistance and collapse? In a world of shrinking energy reserves, is Iraq finally fated to become what it was going to be anyway, even before the chaos and catastrophe set in: a giant gas pump for an energy-starved planet? Will it all end not with a bang, but with a gusher? The latest oil news out of that country offers at least a hint of Iraq's fate

30 June, 2009

Investing In Durability
By Guy R. McPherson

At this point, there is no stopping the arc of history or the icons of industry. We're all hanging onto the roller-coaster ride of economic collapse, which is fueled by the flawed notion of never-ending economic growth. Unless you're planning to withdraw to an anarcho-primitivist society beyond the reach of the industrial world, there's little you can do, as an individual, to mitigate the damage to Earth or your wallet

29 June, 2009

Peak Oil And World Food Supplies
By Peter Goodchild

Only about 10 percent of the world’s land surface is arable, whereas the other 90 percent is just rock, sand, or swamp, which can never be made to produce crops, whether we use “high” or “low” technology or something in the middle. In an age with diminishing supplies of oil and other fossil fuels, this 10:90 ratio may be creating two gigantic problems that have been largely ignored

12 June, 2009

It's Official: The Era Of Cheap Oil Is Over
By Michael T. Klare

The recent release of the 2009 IEO has provided energy watchers with a feast of significant revelations. By far the most significant disclosure: the IEO predicts a sharp drop in projected future world oil output (compared to previous expectations) and a corresponding increase in reliance on what are called "unconventional fuels" -- oil sands, ultra-deep oil, shale oil, and biofuels

23 April, 2009

Economics And Education
By Peter Goodchild

Education for the real world begins with the principle that every teenager, at least in rural areas (where any sensible person would be living) should know how to use a rifle and an ax, since the first might provide food and the second might provide a home. A university degree that leaves its owner many thousands of dollars in debt, on the other hand, is not providing a foundation for survival in the Age of Entropy. The corollary is that education in such real-world skills will not be acquired by sitting at a desk

05 April, 2009

Irondale: An Experiment In Post-Oil Survival
By Peter Goodchild

As long as there is chaos, there is hope. When industrial society has collapsed, there will be a chance for something better. One day, for some people, the enigmatic quest for a return to Nature will be fulfilled

19 March, 2009

A Review By Carolyn Baker

Future Scenarios offers fascinating and fertile challenges for engaging Peak Oil and climate change and confronts us with the question that will not die: Will our journey to a post-petroleum world be a transition or a trauma? The longer we wait to make the profoundly radical choices necessary at this juncture of history, the greater the certainty that choices we would not prefer will be made for us

25 February, 2009

Aspects Of The Post-Oil Community
By Peter Goodchild

I have great hopes for the future, when the hard times are over. By the end of the present century, the human population will be much smaller than it now is. The 200-odd nations of the present day will be only a dim memory, and the major languages will have broken up into local dialects, to such an extent that a linguistic outsider will be one who lives only over the next hill. Grass will be growing everywhere, and the long miles of cracked highways will be merely a curiosity. Yet those days will not be the Dark Ages: on the contrary, starlight will once again appear over the cities at night

18 February, 2009

Peak Oil: Facts At Your Fingertips
By Peter Goodchild

The following may indicate some of the more important “names and numbers” in the complex issue of peak oil and its consequences. Besides that of oil production itself, one curve for which the numbers are significant is that of human population, since the interaction of those two curves will be momentous. Other vital sets of figures are those in the quest for alternative energy and those for post-oil survival

05 January, 2009

Peak Oil And The Century Of Famine
By Peter Goodchild

Around the beginning of the twenty-first century, there began a clash of two gigantic forces: overpopulation and oil depletion. The event went unnoticed by all but a few people, but it was quite real. As a result of that clash, the number of human beings on Earth must one day decline in order to match the decline in oil production

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