Defeat
And Its Consequences
By Mani Shankar Aiyar
The
Indian Express
12 December, 2003
Kudos
to the BJP for overturning what most agreed was a certain Congress victory
in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and a possible retention by the Congress
of Madhya Pradesh. The Congress is, of course, beaten and the
pollsters more so.
But what next? Installed
cheek-by-jowl to Narendra Modi, we now have Uma Bharti. In the aftermath
of Godhra, Ratlam in next door Madhya Pradesh was calm while Vadodra
and Ahmedabad, much further away from Godhra than Ratlam, were in flames.
There are quite as many Hindus in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan as in
Gujarat. Yet, Narendra Modis twist to Newtons law ran out
at the Gujarat-Madhya Pradesh border as it did in the few kilometres
between Himmatnagar, Gujarat and Mount Abu, Rajasthan. And next to Narendra
Modi and Uma Bharti, we have Judeo Raj. The man is known less for his
preference for Cash over God than for the shuddhi movement he has unleashed
among the Christian tribals of Chhattisgarh. If Godhra had happened
in February 2004 rather than February 2002, would Madhya Pradesh and
Chhattisgarh have been spared the Modi version of dharma raj?
Now that the causes
of the election outcome have been analysed to death, spare a thought
for the consequences of that outcome. While much of the media has been
trumpeting the victory of development issues over Hindutva,
the Hindutva brigade have installed three of the ugliest faces of communalism
in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, and virtually handed over Chhattisgarh
to the tender ministrations of Dilip Singh Judeo. (I exempt Rajasthan
because Vasundhara is not Uma Bharti: her oratory is prachar; Umas
is pravachan. But how long will Vasundhara last? And will the vile forces
of saffron let her be herself?)
To imagine that
a sadhvi swathed in saffron has suddenly changed into a professor of
economics, like a duckling transforming into a swan, would be naivete
of the highest order. For who can forget the hideous grin on Uma Bhartis
face as the Babri Masjid was demolished brick by shameful brick? However
sotto voce their Hindutva might have been during the election campaign,
the establishment of a Hindu Rashtra remains their core agenda. Yes,
there are relatively modern faces in the BJP. But Vasundhara is the
only one chosen from among the moderates. With due deliberation have
been foisted in three adjoining seats the second rung leadership
of the BJP. This second rung is committed to the worst excesses of Hindutva.
Next only to Modis refusal to regret the massacre of the minorities
in Gujarat was Uma Bhartis stout and unrepentant defence of the
horrors of Gujarat. And Father Graham Staines brutal murder was
the inevitable outcome of the hateful propaganda poisonously spread
by Judeo and his ilk.
This second rung
has been carefully insinuated into office against the day the BJP hopes
to capture power on its own, so that when it whips out its real agenda
of altering the nationhood of India, its apparatchiks will be in place.
I do not for a moment believe the Hindus will vote for Hindutva, for
even in 1999 the best the BJP could do was secure 180 seats. Except
in Venkaiah Naidus flights of fancy, the BJP is as far from 300
seats in the next Lok Sabha elections as the Congress is from 272. But
as the BJP edges towards their goal of absolute unfettered power, the
more dangerous becomes the prospect of an India ruled by those of the
colour of Modi, Bharti and Judeo.
There is, therefore,
no alternative to recognising that the BJP must be stopped in its tracks
as firmly as Hitler should have been in 1932. But because conservatives
and clerics of various hues entered into coalition arrangements with
the Nazis, Hitler won the elections of January 1933. I have always seen
something symbolic about Hitler having become chancellor on the same
day as Gandhiji was assassinated 15 years later 30 January. Our
LPG lobby liberalisation, privatisation, globalisation
is so enamoured of the right-wing benefits the BJP promises to confer
on the fat cats that one fears they will back the BJP for the same reason
that Krupp and Daimler backed Hitler. It is only an unprincipled coalition
that has brought the BJP six years of power at the Centre. The NDA alliance
might in the next round change something of its components but the BJP
will never be lacking for partners who sleep with the enemy.
Therefore, it is
imperative that the enlightened element of our public life recognise
that the next Lok Sabha election is less about winning the election
than about stopping the BJP from winning. And the lesson must first
be learned by the Congress. For without the Congress, there is no stopping
the BJP. Therefore, the fulcrum of an alternative alliance has to be
the Congress, not a go-it-alone Congress but a Congress which works
the coalition dharma. Remember, in all three states which the Congress
lost, the massive slide in the Congress vote went only marginally to
the BJP; the bulk of the transfer was from the Congress to regional
or sectional outfits and Congress rebels. So, the Congress lost,
but the BJP did not win. It was the split in the non-BJP vote which
took the BJP vote over the top. An alliance to consolidate the non-communal
vote would, therefore, be a winning combination.
Of course, the Congress
has no experience of coalition politics at the Centre, but it does have
a fund of experience of coalition politics in the states. That could
be drawn upon provided potential partners are willing to eschew
the anti-Congressism on which they have flourished. Also, if alliances
become the route for poaching on each others territories, then
an alternative alliance cannot hang together and its component parties
will hang separately. If, however, it is possible to forge an alliance
of mutually reinforcing strengths, that would electrify the political
landscape. A progressive secular alliance might still come to be pitted
against the National Democratic Alliance. The Congress offered to go
down this path at Shimla and has reiterated this at last Sundays
meeting of the Congress Working Committee. The weeks to come will determine
whether that is, in fact, feasible.