Saudi regime
v al-Qaida:
Only one survives
By Shaheen Chughtai
Aljazeera
11 November 2003,
The
deadly bomb attack on a housing complex in Riyadh represents the latest
battle between the Saudi Arabian monarchy and its armed opponents in
a war to eliminate the other.
Just a year ago,
the Riyadh government was still insisting - on the record - there was
no al-Qaida presence in the country.
Bearing in mind
15 of the 9/11 hijackers were alleged to be of Saudi origin, this denial
rang hollow with the rest of the world.
The truth is quite
different. The crackdown on suspected members of underground opposition
was in place long before Saudi admitted last summer, publicly, it had
a problem.
Dozens of plots
have been allegedly foiled and scores of suspected armed dissidents
have been arrested or killed in confrontations.
But Saturday nights
bombing, which has killed at least 17 people and left more than 100
wounded, is the third such attack in the past six months.
Two devastating
bombings of residential compounds in May killed 35 people - a month
after Saudi-born dissident Usama bin Ladin exhorted his followers to
rise up against the Riyadh government.
Fuelling support
Political dissidents
say the Saudi government, an undemocratic monarchy that has long rejected
calls for more transparent representative government, fuels support
for al-Qaida by crushing all dissent.
Its
a myth to say their supporters are just frustrated, unemployed or poor
young men, or have psychological problems, says Dr Saad al-Fakih,
London-based leader of the opposition Islamic Reform Movement. Many
are quite wealthy and comfortable.
Supporters of groups
such as al-Qaida are motivated by political and religious leaders, he
told Aljazeera.net. Usually, they begin merely by seeking greater democracy
and transparency.
But the Saudis
dont allow freedom of expression, he says, and when
people try to express their anger, they are crushed. The regime is basically
telling them they have two choices: either they can remain as slaves,
or they have to turn to violence.
Soft targets
Al-Qaidas
choice of targets may seem counterproductive - even more so in the case
of Saturdays attack on a compound inhabited mostly by Arabs.
If it turns
out that most of the casualties are Arabs
there will be an adverse
reaction across the region, says Dr Rosemary Hollis, head of the
Middle East Programme at the Royal Institute of International Affairs,
in London.
But several private
residences belonging to the Saudi royal family were reportedly nearby,
as were the US and other foreign embassies all much more heavily
guarded but close enough to make a point.
Analysts say such
targets present al-Qaida with an opportunity to destabilise the regime,
sending a message that it is too weak to provide security.
It will deliver
a shock to the economy, deter foreigners coming to work and investment,
says Hollis. In this way, they hope to undermine the regime.
Sympathy
Many Saudis have
been disturbed by the increasingly bloody conflict. According to the
government, several suspects have been turned in by their families which
they believe shows al-Qaidas support is waning.
The May bombings
led to a surge of support for the authorities, which al-Fakih says the
government manipulated to great effect. But the Saudis, says Hollis,
have found themselves facing a classic dilemma.
Its
always a fact when authorities confront insurgents, or violent opponents,
if you become too heavy-handed, you create new problems, she says.
The Saudis face quite a task.
Al-Fakih says the authorities quickly squandered public sympathy for
the victims and the subsequent support for the governments response
through its oppressive tactics.
And the Saudis
persistent crackdown on any dissent, such as recent pro-democracy protests,
has fuelled resentment of the monarchy and support for al-Qaida.
Recent images
of riot police beating women protesters just adds to this support,
says al-Fakih.
Controversial
None the less, the
choice of such targets Saturdays attack produced bloody
television images of wounded women and children remains controversial
not only for al-Qaidas supporters but for many armed insurgents
as well.
There are
those who will say anyone killed will become a martyr to the cause,
not a child killed in a random act of violence
Hollis says in such
circumstances there will be some even among al-Qaidas ranks who
will regard such an attack as a mistake or politically counterproductive.
But there
will be others who will reconcile this to their consciences, she
says.
Inevitable violence
And such violence
casts a morbid shadow over Saudi Arabias future. Al-Fakih says
the prospect of a peaceful resolution is impossible because the monarchy
is too unpopular to survive a transformation into a more open democratic
regime.
The moment
they allow more transparency and freedom of expression, this will lead
to their demise, al-Fakih says. So they can only introduce
cosmetic changes, not real reforms. This makes a clash inevitable.
Although one of
al-Qaida's purported aims was to rid the kingdom of US troops, who departed
this summer, the presence of American advisers and intelligence staff
remains unacceptable for the radical group, says al-Fakih. The regime
remains a US puppet in many people's eyes, he says.
In his taped messages,
Usama bin Ladin has made it clear how he sees the war between al-Qaida
and the House of Saud will end.
We expect
for the ruler of Riyadh the same fate as the Shah of Iran.