Crunch Time For President Musharraf And Pakistan Politics
By Safdar Jafri
31 May,
2008
Countercurrents.org
In an interesting but anticipated
move, the ruling coalition of Pakistan seems to have reached an agreement
to remove President Musharaf from power. The move was anticipated
after Asif Zardari, the leader of majority party PPP, suddenly decided
to drop his backing for President Musharaf in the wake of growing
public demand to unconditionally restore the sacked judges of the
Supreme Court, whom President Mushraf had removed. There have also
been growing calls to remove President Musharaf from power because
he no longer enjoys the support of majority of elected parliamentarians.
Some experts believe that the reason Mr Zardari took so long to make
up his mind in this matter was the continued pressure from the US
in support of President Musharaf which seems to have subsided lately.
The question however is not whether the ruling coalition has the will
and ability to remove President Musharaf from power as it clearly
has both. It is whether Mr Musharaf will allow such move to topple
him and leave without resistance.
Constitutionally, he can certainly prevent any such move. Article
58 (2) (b), the infamous amendment in the constitution that has been
used at several ocassions in the past by Pakistani Presidents to remove
elected governments, gives him full authority to dismiss the elected
assemblies by one brief order on short notice and call for new elections.
Given his recent clear unwillingness to resign and leave the office
in a dignified manner rather than being impeached and removed through
an official move by the ruling coalition, it seems that Musharaf would
be quite inclined to use this power if he has to prevent his unceremonious
fall. However, if he dissolves the elected assemblies in a pre-emptive
strike on his opponents, the consequences for the country and its
fragile democratic institutions can be quite grave and far reaching.Rumours
are also around that Mr Musharaf, in the wake of growing opposition
against his rule, may also be inclined to use another of his important
powers and replace the current Army chief General Kiani, whom he had
himself appointed, by a more trustworthy man, Nadim Taj - a Urdu-speaking,
long standing confidante of President Musharaf and quite importantly,
a close relative of his wife Sehba Musharaf.
But in Pakistani politics there are many a slip between cup and tea.
Mr Musharaf knows well that if he uses the draconian power of disolving
the assemblies, then the country will most certainly plunge into another
deep choas, hurting the political standing and economc conditions
further. But when push comes to shove, he may have to secure his own
back than think about the consequences for the country. Also important
is the fact that even though President Musharaf is capable of replacing
the army chief with a more trusted man, today's reality is that General
Kiani is the man in power and calls the shots. He is reputed as a
quiet man and he has certainly lived up to this reputation as he has
not made any public statements on the current political crisis brewing
in the country. But he is also known as a man of action. It is quite
possible that before Mr Musharaf strikes and removes him, he moves
first by staging the fifth army coup in the sixty-year history of
Pakistan. With the threat of religious extremism, terrorism and growing
US concerns about stability in Pakistan, any kind of instability in
the power structure of the country will catapult Pakistan into further
chaos and uncertainty.
Another possible scenario is that such rumors would put General Kiani
and others connected to the situation on alert and Musharraf may see
the game plan backfire. If the situation develops along these lines,
then it is highly likely that Musharaf may be given an opportunity
to quietly step down and be provided safe exit from the country. This
scenario will be similar to the exit of Shah of Iran back in 1978
- except that there is unlikely to be an immediate relgious revolution
in Pakistan as happened in the case of Iran. The post-Musharaf era
in this case, will provide the army and the politicians to work out
a paradigm of cooperation, similar to the system operational in Turkey
and the country can be put on the track of long term development progress
while both the politicians and the army holding key stakes in the
political system of Pakistan.
What unfolds in the near future, and one fears that it will be sooner
rathan than later, will have far reaching consequences for the country,
its political orientation and even its geographic and demographic
integrity.