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One Percenter Greed & War Means Over 1.5 Million Americans Die Preventably Each Year

By Dr Gideon Polya

19 September, 2014

The One Percenter-dominated US state terrorists and US Alliance state terrorists (UK state terrorists, French state terrorists and Australian state terrorists) are using the Big Lie of “terror hysteria” as an excuse for illegal and war criminal invasion of  Iraq and Syria. However sensible analysis reveals that the “annual empirical probability of an American  dying preventably from preventable causes from homicide to smoking” (P = 1 in 207) is about 500,000 times greater   than the “empirical annual probability of an American being killed by a terrorist attack in the US ” (P = 1 in 100 million).

US analyst Ronald Bailey has estimated “30 Americans killed in terrorist incidents inside the United States in the last 10 years”,  defines non-state terrorism thus: “ Terrorism is defined as “premeditated, politically motivated violence, perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents” and comments: “Taking these figures into account, a rough calculation suggests that in the last five years, your chances of being killed by a terrorist are about one in 20 million. This compares annual risk of dying in a car accident of 1 in 19,000; drowning in a bathtub at 1 in 800,000; dying in a building fire at 1 in 99,000; or being struck by lightning at 1 in 5,500,000. In other words, in the last five years you were four times more likely to be struck by lightning than killed by a terrorist”. Importantly Bailey observes that “[it is] estimated that the U.S. has spent $1 trillion on anti-terrorism security measures since 2001 (this figure does not include the costs of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan )…. Typically when evaluating the costs of protective regulations, federal government agencies set the value of a life at about $9 million” [1].  

Ronald Bailey's estimate checks out. Thus about 30 American residents were  killed in America by “terrorists” in the 10 years since 9/11 and the average  US population in this period was about 298 million (UN Population Division data). Accordingly, the “empirical annual probability of an American dying in the US from terrorism” is 30/10 years x 298 million = 1 in 100 million per year.

An estimated 1.541 million Americans die preventably  each year out of a population of 319 million  (2014). Accordingly, the “empirical annual probability of an American dying preventably  in the US ” (P)  is 1.541 million/319 million = 4.8 in 1000 or 1 in 207. Thus it is 100 million/207 = 0.483 million  or 483,000 times more likely for an American to die preventably (from smoking, alcohol, obesity, guns etc) than to die from a terrorist attack within the US .

With respect to the  1.541 million Americans who die preventably each year, the breakdown and annual P values ( “empirical annual probability of death”) are  as follows (note gun, homicide and suicide overlaps) [2-4].  

1.  443,000 Americans die from smoking-related causes annually  (P = 443,000 /319,000,000 = 1.39 in 1,000 = 1 in 719) with roughly 1 in 5 of all deaths and 49,000 or about 10% dying from passive smoking (P = 1 in 6,494).

2. 440,000 Americans die from adverse events in hospitals each year (P = 1 in 725) (thus in 2010 the Office of Inspector General for Health and Human Services said that bad hospital care contributed to the deaths of 180,000 patients in Medicare alone in a given year [3] but Dr John James (2013) estimates 440,000 deaths per year associated with preventable harm in US hospitals [4]).

3. 300,000 Americans die from obesity-related causes annually (P = 1 in 1,063) .

4. 75,000 American alcohol-related deaths annually (P= 1 in 4,253) .

5. 70,000 Americans die annually from air pollution (e.g. from coal burning, vehicle exhaust, carbon burning in general) (P= 1 in 4,557).

6. 45,000 US deaths annually  from lack of medical insurance (P= 1 in 7,089).

7. 38,000 US drug-related deaths annually (P= 1 in 8,395) , this including  21,000 US opiate drug-related deaths annually from US restoration and protection of the Taliban-destroyed Afghan opium industry (P= 1 in 15,190)  .

8. 33,000Americans killed by motor vehicles each year (P= 1 in 9,667).

9. 31,000 gun-related US deaths annually (P= 1 in 10,290).

10. 30,000 Americans suicide annually (P= 1 in 10,633) with 7,000 being US veterans (P= 1 in 45,571).

11. 21,000 avoidable under-5 year old US infant deaths annually (P= 1 in 15,190).

12. 15,000 Americans are violently murdered annually (P= 1 in 21,267) but as this list shows, about 1.5 million Americans are passively murdered each year by One Percenter-subverted politician inaction and fiscal perversion  (P= 1 in 207  ).

It is overall about 483,000 times or roughly 500,000 times more likely for an American to die preventably than to die from a terrorist attack within the US, the disproportionality  ranging from it  being 4,704 times more likely to be murdered by a non-terrorist to 139,000 times more likely to die from smoking than to be killed by a terrorist.

US state terrorism is linked to over 1.5 million preventable American deaths each year and 20 million such deaths since 9-11.

The long-term accrual cost of the US War on Terror overseas is about $6 trillion [5, 6] and the Domestic cost of security arrangements since 2001 is about $1 trillion [1]. Given a $9 million risk avoidance-linked Value of a Statistical Life (VOSL) [1] , this $7 trillion cost of the War on Terror corresponds  to the cost of keeping  $7 million million /($ 9 million per person) = 0.8 million Americans  safe and alive.

However the human cost overseas of the Zionist-promoted US War on Terror is 10 million Muslims killed by violence or by war-imposed deprivation since 9-11 [7-9]. Another way if seeing this is that the American  Neocon and Zionist Imperialist (NAZI) One Percenters have committed the US to spending $7 trillion on killing 10 million Muslims abroad (and half of them children) rather than keeping 20 million Americans alive at home since 9-11.

Cost and risk comparisons with US allies UK and Australia .

In 2011 about 150,000 people died preventably each year in the UK   (2011 population 62.4 million). Accordingly, the “empirical annual probability of a British resident  dying preventably  in the UK ”  is 150,000 /62.4 million = 2.4  in 1000 or 1 in 417.   58 people have been killed in terrorist incidents in the UK this century. The average  UK population in this period was about 61.2 million. Accordingly the “empirical annual probability of a British resident   dying in the UK from terrorism” is 58/(15 years x 61.2 million) = 63.2 in 1000 million or  1 in 15.8 million.  Thus it is 15.8 million/417 = 0.038 million  or about 38,000 times more likely for a British resident  to die preventably (from smoking, alcohol, obesity, guns etc) than to die from a terrorist attack within the UK . The UK has spent US$195 billion since 1990 on killing 12 million Muslims abroad  in the Zionist-promoted, US-led War on Muslims [7-9] rather  than spending this huge sum on keeping British residents alive at home [10].

About 66,000 Australians  die preventably each year, variously from all kinds of preventable causes from smoking, drinking and obesity to homicide and suicide [11].  The present Australian population is 24 million. Accordingly the “empirical annual probability of an Australian dying preventably  in Australia ” is 66,000 /24 million = 2.75 per 1,000 or 1 in  364. Since 1978 there have been 6 Australian residents   killed by terrorism within Australia .The average population of Australia   in that period was 18.2 million. Accordingly,  the “empirical annual probability of Australian being killed by a terrorist  within Australia ” is 6 persons /(36 years x 18.2 million ) = 9.2  in 1 billion per year or  1 in 109 million per year. Thus it is 109 million/364 = 0.299 million  or about 300,000 times more likely for an Australian  resident  to die preventably (from smoking, alcohol, obesity, guns etc) than to die from a terrorist attack within Australia .

To put the Australian data  in more concrete terms, there have been 22 fatal shark attacks in beach-loving Australia since April 2002 [12] . The average Australian population in that period was about 21.6 million. Accordingly, the “empirical annual probability of an Australian suffering a fatal shark attack in Australia ” is about  22/12.3 years x 21.6 million) =0.83 per 10 million per year or roughly  1 in 12 million per year as compared to  the annual  probability of an Australian being killed by a terrorist in Australia (1 in 109 million). It is  accordingly  109 million/12 million = 9.1 times more likely for an Australian to be killed by a shark  than to be killed by a terrorist in Australia . Australia has committed to a long-term accrual cost of  $125  billion for the War on Terror rather than rather  than spending this huge sum on keeping Australian  residents alive at home [5].

The human cost of the post-1990 US War on Muslims in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia and elsewhere (Egypt, Syria, Libya, Mali, Palestine) has been  12 million Muslim deaths  from violence or war-imposed deprivation, the breakdown including 4.6 million Iraqis (1990-2011), 5.5 million Afghans (2001-2014), 2.2 million Somalis (1992-2014), 0.1 million Libyans (2011-2012),  and 0.1 million Palestinians (since 1990) [8].

About  4.6 million Iraqis have  been killed by US-UK state terrorism since  1990, this including 1.7 million Iraqis killed by violence and 2.9 million Iraqis passively murdered through war-imposed deprivation [8, 9].  The average population of Iraq in this period was 25.6 million and accordingly the “empirical annual probability of an Iraqi dying from US state terrorism and UK state terrorism in 1990-2011” was 4.6 million /(22 years x 25.6 million) = 8.2 in 1,000 or 1 in 122, this being 100 million/122 = 820,000 times greater than the  annual probability of a US citizen dying from a terrorist attack (1 in 100 million).

About  5.5 million Afghans  have  been killed by US-UK state terrorism since  2001, this including 1.3 million Afghans  killed by violence and 4.2 million Afghans passively murdered through war-imposed deprivation [7, 8].  The average population of Afghanistan  in this period was 26.6 million and accordingly the “empirical annual probability of an Afghan dying from US state terrorism and US Alliance state terrorism in 2001-2014” was 5.5 million /(13 years x 26.6 million) = 15.9 in 1,000 or 1 in 63 per year, this being 100 million/63 = 1,587,000 times greater than the  annual probability of a US citizen dying from a terrorist attack in the US.


Nazi dictator, war criminal and mass murderer Adolph Hitler coined the term “Big Lie” ( Große Lüge ) for   the use of a lie so "colossal" that no one would believe that someone "could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously” (1925): “All this was inspired by the principle—which is quite true within itself—that in the big lie there is always a certain force of credibility; because the broad masses of a nation are always more easily corrupted in the deeper strata of their emotional nature than consciously or voluntarily; and thus in the primitive simplicity of their minds they more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie, since they themselves often tell small lies in little matters but would be ashamed to resort to large-scale falsehoods. It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously. Even though the facts which prove this to be so may be brought clearly to their minds, they will still doubt and waver and will continue to think that there may be some other explanation. For the grossly impudent lie always leaves traces behind it, even after it has been nailed down, a fact which is known to all expert liars in this world and to all who conspire together in the art of lying” [13, 14].

The leaders of US state terrorism and US Alliance state terrorism (UK state terrorism, French state terrorism, Israeli state terrorism and Australian state terrorism)  have purveyed the super-Orwellian falsehood of “terror hysteria” to justify genocidal state terrorist atrocities  in the Muslim world from Mali to Pakistan that have killed 12 million Muslims since 1990. Successive  US Administrations  and complicit Mainstream media have employed the Big Lie of “terror threat” to justify  wars and human rights abuse whereas the reality is that the  “empirical annual probability of an American being killed by a terrorist attack in the US” (P = 1 in 100 million) is nearly 500,000 times smaller  than the “empirical annual probability of an American dying preventably  in the US” (P = 1 in 207). The US Alliance state terrorists  use similar  Big Lies to justify mass murder while ignoring massive domestic preventable deaths associated with the fiscal perversion of  spending  hundreds of billions of dollars  on killing Muslims abroad rather  than  keeping their own citizens alive at home.  

The other major  and connected  Big Lie of the century has been the “lying Bush official version of 9-11”. Numerous science, engineering, architecture, aviation, military and intelligence experts assert from  available evidence not destroyed by the US Government that the US Government  must  have been involved in the 9-11 atrocity, with some strongly suggesting Israeli involvement [15]. However Western media, politician and academic presstitutes (a) go along with the Big Lie that was used to invade Iraq and Afghanistan (even though no Iraqis or Afghans were involved in the 9-11 atrocity according to the “lying Bush official version”), (b) ignore the 10 million Muslim deaths (half of children) from violence or  war-imposed deprivation in the post-9-11 US War On Terror ) , and (c) ignore the 20 million Americans, 2 million British  and 0.9 million Australians who have died preventably since 9-11 linked to the fiscal perversion of  US Alliance Governments  spending  hundreds of billions of dollars to trillions of dollars  on killing millions of Muslims abroad rather  than  keeping their own citizens alive at home.

What can decent pro-peace people do in the face of war criminal US Alliance mass murder abroad and huge passive mass murder at home  driven by egregious lying and spin by the US Alliance state terrorists? Decent, science-informed  people must (a) inform everyone  they can  (lying Mainstream politician, media and academic presstitutes certainly won't) and (b) urge and where possible apply Boycotts, Divestment  and Sanctions (BDS) against  all  people, politicians, parties, companies, corporations and countries involved in the continuing US War on Muslims that is an obscene, state terrorist war for  fossil fuels and US hegemony. Peace is the only way but silence kills and silence is complicity.


[1].  Ronald Bailey, “How scared of terrorism should you be?”, Reason.com, 6 September 2011: http://reason.com/archives/2011/09/06/how-scared-of-terrorism-should .

[2].  Gideon Polya, “One million Americans die  preventably  annually in USA ”, Countercurrents,  18 February 2012: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya180212.htm .

[3]. Marshall Allen, “How many die from medical mistakes in U.S. Hospitals?”, Pro-Publica, 10 September 2013: http://www.propublica.org/article/how-many-die-from-medical-mistakes-in-us-hospitals .

[4]. John T. James, “A new , evidence-based estimate if patient harms associated with hospitals”, Journal of Patient Safety, September 2013 - Volume 9 - Issue 3 - p 122–128: http://journals.lww.com/journalpatientsafety/Fulltext/2013/09000/A_New,_Evidence_based_Estimate_of_Patient_Harms.2.aspx .

[5]. Gideon Polya, “Endless War on Terror. Huge cost for Australia & America ”, MWC News 14 October 2012: http://mwcnews.net/focus/analysis/22149-endless-war-on-terror.html

[6]. Gideon Polya, “ American Holocaust, millions of untimely American deaths and $40 trillion cost of Israel to Americans”, Countercurrents, 27 August, 2013: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya270813.htm .

[7]. “Afghan Holocaust Afghan Genocide”: https://sites.google.com/site/afghanholocaustafghangenocide/ .

[8]. “Muslim Holocaust Muslim Genocide”: https://sites.google.com/site/muslimholocaustmuslimgenocide/ .

[9]. ”Iraqi Holocaust Iraqi Genocide”: https://sites.google.com/site/iraqiholocaustiraqigenocide/ .

[10]. Gideon Polya, “UK Terror Hysteria exposed – Empirical Annual Probability of UK Terrorism Death 1 in 16 million”,  Countercurrents, 16 September, 2014: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya160914.htm .

[11]. Gideon Polya, “ Why PM Julia Gillard Must Go: 66,000 Preventable Australian Deaths Annually”, Countercurrents, 21 February, 2012: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya210212.htm .

[12].  “Shark attacks in Australia : a timeline”, Australian Geographic, September   2014) : http://www.australiangeographic.com.au/topics/science-environment/2014/09/shark-attacks-in-australia-a-timeline/ .

[13]. “Big Lie”, Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_lie .

[14]. Adolph Hitler, “Main Kampf” (“My Struggle'), volume 1, Chapter X (1925).

[15]. “Experts; US did 9-11”: https://sites.google.com/site/expertsusdid911/ .

Dr Gideon Polya has been teaching science students at a major Australian university for 4 decades. He published some 130 works in a 5 decade scientific career, most recently a huge pharmacological reference text "Biochemical Targets of Plant Bioactive Compounds" (CRC Press/Taylor & Francis, New York & London , 2003). He has published “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950” (G.M. Polya, Melbourne, 2007: http://globalbodycount.blogspot.com/ ); see also his contributions “Australian complicity in Iraq mass mortality” in “Lies, Deep Fries & Statistics” (edited by Robyn Williams, ABC Books, Sydney, 2007: http://www.abc.net.au/rn/science/ockham/stories/s1445960.htm ) and “Ongoing Palestinian Genocide” in “The Plight of the Palestinians (edited by William Cook, Palgrave Macmillan, London, 2010: http://mwcnews.net/focus/analysis/4047-the-plight-of-the-palestinians.html ). He has published a revised and updated 2008 version of his 1998 book “Jane Austen and the Black Hole of British History” (see: http://janeaustenand.blogspot.com/ ) as biofuel-, globalization- and climate-driven global food price increases threaten a greater famine catastrophe than the man-made famine in British-ruled India that killed 6-7 million Indians in the “forgotten” World War 2 Bengal Famine (see recent BBC broadcast involving Dr Polya, Economics Nobel Laureate Professor Amartya Sen and others: http://www.open.edu/openlearn/history-the-arts/history/social-economic-history/listen-the-bengal-famine ). When words fail one can say it in pictures - for images of Gideon Polya's huge paintings for the Planet, Peace, Mother and Child see: http://sites.google.com/site/artforpeaceplanetmotherchild/ and http://www.flickr.com/photos/gideonpolya/ .




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