The Ukraine conflict has very high costs in terms of loss of life and perhaps even higher costs in terms of the kind of escalation that in a worst case scenario can even lead to a nuclear war and WW3.
In fact amidst all the ongoing conflicts, no other conflict or war has higher chance of escalating into nuclear war or WW3 than the Ukraine war. Hence while peaceful solutions for all conflicts are needed, nowhere is the urgency of this as acute as in the context of the Ukraine war.
Keeping in view the great urgency of achieving ceasefire and peace as early as possible, here we propose a 4-stage path to peace.
In the first stage unconditional ceasefire is accepted by both Ukraine and Russia on the basis more or less of the existing line of control while at the same time both sides declare that they will follow this with peace negotiations to resolve all contentious issues.
This involves no material loss to anyone and no loss of face either to anyone as no one is conceding anything to the other side. Whether it is the issue of territory or of neutrality or of NATO membership, all such contentious issues are placed in a separate basket for stage two of the peace process. This separation makes it possible to achieve immediate ceasefire.
On the other hand if the ceasefire is made conditional to such contentious issues as territory and NATO membership, then ceasefire will be indefinitely delayed as there are very big differences in the perceptions of the two sides on these issues. The more the ceasefire is delayed and the fighting continues, the higher will be the human costs and the higher also will be the risk of escalation in most dangerous ways.
On the other hand, if immediate ceasefire is achieved, then immediately hundreds of human lives will start getting saved on daily bases—people who could have died due to the direct and indirect costs of war if the fighting and the bombing had continued. It will become more possible to rush relief to those who need this the most, and to provide proper medical care to those who are seriously injured. Reconstruction and repair work can be speeded up and many displaced people can start returning to their homes. Important infrastructure can be repaired and improved to ensure return of normalcy to many devastated areas.
Once ceasefire is in place, within a few months or weeks, with due preparations, the second stage of peace negotiations can start. Here an important effort should be to start with a strong commitment to peace and to try to achieve as wide a domestic consensus for peace as possible, in Ukraine as well as Russia. Both countries should be clear that the maximum efforts will be made to clinch a peace agreement and that there is much to be gained by both sides from an agenda of peace and cooperation as opposed to an agenda of conflict and war.
Hence if does not matter if the peace negotiations do not achieve immediate agreement and are prolonged, as ceasefire is already in place and even reconstruction work has started. Phase one of peace negotiations can be followed after some rest by a second phase and so on. This can be quite a prolonged process to the extent needed. What is important is that peace negotiations should not break down and should be continued. If any third country or power tries to disrupt peace negotiations or create misunderstandings and animosity, then this should be openly and strongly opposed by both sides. Both sides should carefully avoid making any provocative statements aimed at each other.
Thirdly, while peace negotiations are on, with even greater continuity efforts should be made to create goodwill by promoting cultural exchange and by emphasizing the role of those numerous households who have members and commitments on both sides, and hence are strongly in favor of friendly relations. Films and TV programs which bring out in human terms the close relations of people, in present and historical contexts, can be co-produced by both countries and circulated widely. Special institutions committed to friendly relations of these two countries can be set up and strengthened to work on a larger scale and with more continuity. These can promote friendship at the level of youth, students, women, artists, media-persons, writers, farmers and at other levels.
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Fourthly, economic and trade relations should be strengthened in such ways that people on both sides feel more and more strongly that due to geographic as well as economic factors it is much more in the interests of the common people to have both countries in a relationship of friendship and cooperation with each other.
These four stages taken together can not only end the war but also prepare a base of durable peace and friendship for the future relations of these two important neighboring countries Ukraine and Russia.
Bharat Dogra is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Planet in Peril, Protecting Earth for Children, Earth without Borders and A Day in 2071.
