1990 could have started a new era of peace; instead, we had highly destructive wars which may peak soon

Around year 1990, with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the cold war, several world leaders expressed hopes of a new era of world peace. The ‘peace dividend’ was much talked about, with its basic idea of billions of dollars being transferred from military expenditure to meet urgent development needs. Both stepped up funds and increased international cooperation were also needed for increasing environment protection at a time when senior scientists were issuing several warnings of worsening environmental crisis. 

This was not to be, and soon the world was to get increasingly involved in one avoidable conflict after another, with war and conflict related deaths even surging ahead of the pre-1990 years. Many countries—Iraq, Yugoslavia, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo and others—were to experience very heavy destruction which was entirely avoidable.

The Human Development Report, 1991, stated about the earlier period (1945-1990) of wars and conflicts, “There have been over 120 conflicts in the Third World since 1945 with 20 million deaths, more than in the Second World War. In many cases, from Korea to Afghanistan, these have been cold-war struggles between the super powers carried out by proxy on Third World soil.”

So this report made two main points—firstly that despite the experiences of the Second World War, very high levels of conflict related violence continued during 1945-1990, claiming about 440,000 (a little less than half a million), human lives per year. Secondly, this report said that super powers were responsible for most of this loss of human life.

In 1990 with the collapse of one of the super powers, there was a great opportunity to start a new era of peace, something that was confirmed by some top leaders and highlighted in several UN reports.

Unfortunately, when we look at the period since then (1991-2024) three very dangerous facts emerge.

Firstly, the annual average of conflict and war related deaths is even higher than before. Secondly, only one super-power has the responsibility for a very large percentage of these conflict related deaths. Thirdly, the basic reasons driving the aggressiveness of this super-power may be on the verge now of pushing it towards even greater aggression.

Now let me explain these three dangers in some more detail.

Firstly, my estimate is that if all the all the deaths caused directly and indirectly by war and conflict are counted, the average loss of conflict related deaths per year during 1991-2024 is likely to be even higher than what was reported for the previous period of 1945-90. This includes directly and indirectly caused conflict deaths in all the major conflict affected countries including Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, Myanmar, Haiti, Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, South Sudan, the Horn of Africa, the Sahel region, Mozambique, Nigeria, Ukraine, the former Yugoslavia, Palestine, Russia, Pakistan and several other countries.

Secondly, a very high percentage of these deaths have been due to the assaults and actions of just one super-power, the USA. If we consider just the Brown University estimates for roughly the period 2001-2021 then the number of deaths caused directly and indirectly by the US War on Terror is 4.5 million. This does not include some countries affected by the war on terror and is an estimate that must be updated. Then there are many other countries affected by US aggressions, including proxy wars, other than the War on Terror.

Thirdly, US aggressions have been motivated mainly by the non-rational, even stupid, but nevertheless powerful urge for dominating the world as the unquestioned number one great power, if possible the only great power. When the Soviet Union collapsed, this should have been seen by the USA as a golden opportunity to assume the ‘enlightened’ leadership of the world, which was its for the asking at that point of time. Instead the USA embarked on a policy of reckless and arbitrary aggression which was not at all needed by its security needs and in fact gravely harmed its security in some ways.

This reckless aggression was seen during the unipolar period (approximately 1990-2017) when the US dominance was actually without a rival, more or less. However once the USA realized that others were getting close to becoming a rival, then again instead of adopting diplomatic means to manage the situation in non-aggressive ways (something that was/is eminently possible and the USA has very experienced and capable diplomats and statesmen for this), the USA further increased its aggression and started preparing itself, and a number of (mostly unwilling) allies for a very destructive war against existing or potential rivals, preceded or accompanied by use of various proxies.

This has greatly increased the risks of a very big and destructive war, of nuclear weapons war and of third world war. It can be argued that this risk is now higher than during the cold war, and has more dimensions and flashpoints.

Thus the 1991-2024 period which could have been potentially a period of peace has been turned into the period of most dangerous years and the highest blame for this lies with a small number of very aggressive leaders and policy makers in the USA.

This is not to say that aggressive leaders do not exist elsewhere. Certainly they do and the leaders and forces of aggression and of wars everywhere must be checked. In addition the military-industrial complex has itself emerged as not just a contributor of deadly weapons far but also as a causative factor and facilitator of wars.

All these destructive forces, persons and institutions should be checked before it is too late. This can only be done by strengthening all forces of peace and a broad-based people’s peace movement working with continuity, guided by the world’s most learned scholars and experienced statesman committed to peace.

Bharat Dogra is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Protecting Earth for Children, Planet in Peril, Man over Machine and A Day in 2071.