COP29 at Baku, Azerbaijan—We must be hopeful in the midst of ominous signs of global catastrophe 

Scientific evidence, long-term economic projections, and moral imperatives, for example, all provide compelling reasons for urgent effort toward climate mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage. Scores of international agreements, the Paris Agreement of 2015 chief among them, commit nations to take certain steps. Yet these actions are still to be implemented sufficiently as is evident from various Conference of Parties annual meetings, the latest one at Baku, Azerbaijan, 11-22 November 2024. 

Although scores of articles have already been published addressing various vantage points of success and failure of COP29, the most recent summit meeting to deal with the ecological crises, still it sent a clear message: The shape of the future is set, and it will be green. Despite controversies and broader geopolitical tensions, the conference brought together leaders from around the world and showed that as envisaged in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals number 17 to strengthen the means of implementation and revitalizing the global partnership for sustainable development and that partnerships for progress are possible.

In my perspective, there are five takeaways: (1) That transition is happening—it is only a matter of speed: The transition of hard-to-abate sectors like steel and cement was in the spotlight at COP29. For many of these high-emitting industries, the transition to net zero is now a matter of finance and will power. I believe that a transition to net zero this decade is very much possible. However, a key industry for transition is the agriculture sector, which accounts for over one third of global emissions. Despite its complexity, agriculture remains a key sector for climate. Investors will have to come forward and support the industry’s transition to net zero and ensure continued prosperity and security in the decades to come. (2) Development Banks can connect capital with impact: By most estimates, global climate finance needs to increase from USD 1.3 trillion to around USD 4 to 7 trillion by 2030 in order to maintain a 1.5⁰C pathway. At best, to the great disappointment of the Global South based on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) the developed Global North raised financial commitment from the previous commitment of USD 100 billion annually to USD 300 billion by 2035. (3) Ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) present a huge opportunity for prosperity. Brazil and the UK set a positive tone with their week one NDC announcements, which represent the level of ambition that is needed to bring each country into a net-zero future. (4) A welcomed focus on resilience: COP29 was dubbed the ‘Finance COP’, which perhaps glosses over the relevant events and discussions concerning finance at previous editions of COP. Baku, however, demonstrated a renewed surge in prioritizing how to finance climate resilience in particular. (5) The financial sector can facilitate the global transition: COP29 saw many discussions of creative solutions to finance the immense challenges our planet is facing. From the role of insurance as an enabler of finance for transition and resilience, to bringing in smaller development banks and national development banks as emerging key players in enabling transition, the financial sector can facilitate the global transition and build a resilient and prosperous future. This transition in not simply a requirement—it is a tremendous opportunity.

Yet there is a flipside to the above semblance of positivity. Wars and conflicts are intensifying, billions of dollars have been spent on supply of weapons, movement of troops and to lesser extent providing relief for populations impacted and devastation of the physical infrastructure.  No one appears to be understanding the gravity of the burning issues related to global warming, biodiversity loss, and a host of related issues. The contradiction between aspiration and action is a common feature of the international arena, whether in the domain of peace and security, poverty alleviation, or the advancement of women, among others. The tendency toward scepticism and caution that prevents meaningful and enduring action is understandable when set against a painful history of countless breaches of trust. But the state of the world and humanity’s growing interconnectedness demand movement from words to deeds. The role of leadership, then, goes beyond asserting what should be done, to creating an enabling environment where the necessary actions can be taken.

Leaders must overcome this paralysis of will, ultimately rooted in a narrow understanding of individual and collective purpose. To counteract the inertia of the status quo, individual leaders will need to employ new forms of statecraft founded on greater degrees of unity. When considering any proposed policy or action on the international stage, leaders, then, are called to ask: will this decision advance the good of humankind in its entirety? While such a path requires courage, it is a matter of pragmatic necessity that will, no doubt, yield countless benefits. The peoples of the world yearn for leaders and institutions that will act to address their most pressing concerns. Those leaders will be met with even greater support if they are also able to exhibit integrity and trustworthiness, uphold commitments, act with impartiality, and direct political and economic affairs with wisdom and justice. In reality, history has demonstrated that humanity will ultimately rally around and honour those who arise to prioritize its collective well-being.

Change can be scary, but in the end, we know it will lead us where we need to be. Whether it’s a new school year, a new circumstance, a new job, a new home, or a new outlook on life, and most importantly something that is occurring on a global scale.  One thing is clear, the present-day order of separate blocks of nations, divided by political entities but endeavouring to trade together, cannot last long. The end result would be World War III after which if a section of humanity survives, it would have to begin anew. Therefore, let man, woman, youth and child, urgently act and understand that this is not the time as seen in the COP29 and other summit meetings for triumphalism of this nation or that nation, this community or that community, this religion or that religion—all must unitedly and nobly play their part for the positive march of civilization, and save the planet, this pale blue dot, our only home! 

Dr. A. K. Merchant is a social worker, independent researcher serving a number of organizations & institutions in India & abroad.