2025 is marking a threshold of a transformative era for Europe. As the prospective coalition tends to take shape for Germany’s incoming government in the midst of swiftly changing global geopolitics, incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz has warned that “it’s five to midnight for Europe.” At a time when transatlantic bonds are under strain and Europe faces unprecedented security and economic challenges, the country’s new leadership has a task to redefine its role both within the European Union and on the global stage.
A Shifting Transatlantic Order
Germany and most parts of Europe have relied to an extent on US support to safeguard their security. The enduring bonds forged during the Cold War not only provided a reliable security guarantee but also strengthened the economic and political stability that enabled West Germany and later, reunified Germany to prosper.
However, this long-established arrangement has recently come under strain. US Vice President JD Vance is urging Europe to take greater responsibility for their own defense. Tech mogul Elon Musk, a confidante of US President Donald Trump has openly supported the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) during the election period. Musk used his significant social media presence to amplify the AfD’s message and even publicly endorsed the party. The current US stance insisting that Europe should shoulder the costs of its own defense, reflects a broader strategic realignment under President Donald Trump. This evolving policy signals that traditional alliances may no longer offer the same level of support as they once did.
Merz’s post-election statement has called for Europe to gain “independence” from the United States. In the wake of his electoral victory, Merz’s statements are reflecting an urgent need for a robust and self-reliant European geopolitical strategy amid mounting global uncertainties. He criticized what he saw as US interference in the German election campaign – drawing a stark parallel between Washington’s actions and those historically associated with Moscow, stating that “Just look at the recent interventions in the German election campaign by Mr. Elon Musk – that is a unique event. The interventions from Washington were no less dramatic and drastic and ultimately outrageous than the interventions we have seen from Moscow. We are under such massive pressure from two sides that my absolute priority now really is to create unity in Europe.” Merz’s warning is far from hyperbolic – it is a clear call for Europe to act decisively before its economic and security infrastructure reaches a critical breaking point. His concerns have been further amplified by Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats, with the US president vowing to impose 25% tariffs on EU exports, claiming that the bloc was “formed to screw the United States.” The European Commission has vowed to respond “firmly and immediately” to any such trade barriers, warning that these measures could trigger a transatlantic trade war, posing a significant threat to Germany’s automobile industry, a key pillar of its economy. With economic warfare now adding to geopolitical tensions, Merz’s push for a more independent Europe is not just a question of strategic autonomy but an urgent necessity in the face of Washington’s increasingly unpredictable policies.
Domestic Fault Lines: The Rise of the Far-Right and Coalition Challenges
While external threats loom large, Germany’s internal political scene is undergoing a seismic shift. The Christian Democratic Union – Christian Social Union (CDU-CSU) alliance, led by Friedrich Merz, secured nearly 29% of the vote – a result that positions them as the likely leading party in the upcoming coalition government. Yet, this victory is counterbalanced by the remarkable surge of the AfD, which garnered around 20% of the vote. The far-right’s breakthrough has significant implications for German politics. Although mainstream parties have vowed to keep ‘firewall’ against the far-right Alternative, the party’s electoral success indicates deep-seated public discontent. Consequently, the CDU led government will be compelled to perform a delicate balancing act: addressing public grievances related to immigration, crime, inflation, unemployment, and the war in Ukraine that have driven voters toward the far-right, while steadfastly maintaining a principled opposition to hardline rhetoric.
Geopolitical Chessboard Beyond the Transatlantics
Beyond shifts in transatlantic alliances, Germany is also contending with China’s rising influence. Roderich Kiesewetter, foreign policy expert of the CDU parliamentary group, warns that failing to tackle this challenge could lead to significant economic fallout and erode NATO’s deterrence. In response, Germany’s leadership is anticipated to push for a bolder European strategic initiative. As Beijing expands its economic and strategic reach, European democracies, including Germany, risk growing increasingly dependent on a powerhouse that prioritizes state control practices over democratic values.
Ukraine’s conflict adds yet another layer to Europe’s complex geopolitical landscape. Germany emerged as one of Ukraine’s most committed allies following Russia’s war in 2022. Now, with negotiations between the United States and Russia on the horizon, European nations may need to take on a more proactive role in securing any peace agreements – especially since they haven’t been a direct part of the negotiations thus far. Meanwhile, as public opinion in Germany remains split, the new leadership has to carefully navigate between its international obligations and domestic support.
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Europe’s Strategic Realignment with India in a Shifting Global Alliance
Friedrich Merz’s “five to midnight” warning for Europe underscores the urgent need for strategic autonomy. With US foreign policy shifting towards transactionalism, Germany and the European Union as a whole can no longer assume unwavering transatlantic support. As the EU recalibrates its global partnerships, India has emerged as a key player in this new order, not just as a trade partner but as a strategic counterbalance to China. Germany has been a leading voice in pushing forward the stalled EU-India Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The India – Middle East – Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, should be in focus to solidify supply chain resilience. Beyond economics, Germany is also deepening defense cooperation with India, like in the co-production of six advanced submarines for the Indian Navy. The Indo-German Green Hydrogen Roadmap and the EU-India Trade and Technology Council (TTC) aim to bolster partnerships in semiconductors, AI, and renewable energy – sectors vital to the EU’s industrial and digital transformation. With European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spearheading a landmark delegation to India, the EU is reaffirming its strategic commitment to New Delhi. Amid the uncertainties of the Trump administration, India views Europe, especially Germany, as a stable ally. For Berlin’s new leadership, strengthening its partnership with India is not merely about economic opportunities but a crucial step toward building a more self-sufficient and geopolitically resilient Europe.
Abhishek Roy Choudhury is a German Chancellor Fellow, Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, currently based in Berlin Germany, conducting research on India and the European Union’s digital landscape and policy interventions to counter disinformation and foreign information manipulation & interference.
[Views are strictly personal]
