South Asia Leaders Should Act With Caution and Restraint to Avoid War

As the already deteriorating relations between India and Pakistan have become even more tense following the Pahalgam terror attack of April 22 in which 26 tourists and a local rescuer were killed, there is need for great caution and restrain on the part of leaders, media and people of India and Pakistan to avoid any possibility of war breaking out between the two hostile neighbors.

Even those who say that this possibility of a war is not particularly high just now generally agree that the possibility of one escalatory action leading to another cannot be ruled out. Hence in conditions of continuing high tensions for a long time escalatory actions can sometimes lead to a bigger war that no one really wants.  Such a possibility of an unwanted, potentially highly destructive bigger war should be avoided under all circumstances, and for this the leadership of India and Pakistan must show restraint and caution.

One had hoped that at least nuclear weapon threats will be kept out of angry exchanges of words, but this red line has been crossed by two influential ministers of Pakistan, as reported by The Tribune on April 30.

In an editorial titled ‘Raising the N-bogie—Pak ministers add fuel to the fire’ this newspaper has quoted the railway minister of Pakistan as stating that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal has been kept ‘only for India’. At the same time, the defense minister of Pakistan has been quoted as saying that nuclear weapons will be used if there is a direct threat to our existence. Quoting from the latest report of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, this editorial says that Pakistan has 170 nuclear warheads while India has 172. The factual situation that these nuclear weapons can destroy the entire South Asian region from their direct and indirect impacts should never be ignored, no matter how low the likelihood of this happening. Most strategic experts have warned that nuclear weapon power countries should not come even remotely close to the possibility of a war, and should not indulge in brinkmanship.

The Times of India reported on April 30 (front page news report titled ‘Modi gives forces free hand on targets, timing’), “Prime Minister Modi asserted on Tuesday (April 29) that the armed forces have “complete operational freedom” to decide on the mode, targets and timing of India’s response to the Pahalgam terror attack, as he chaired a meeting with the top defense establishment.”

One hopes that alongside, and perhaps more quietly, instructions for exercising restraint were also given as otherwise the chances for escalation can increase in unpredictable ways in such conditions.

One hopes that nationally and internationally all possible efforts will be made to re-emphasize the need for de-escalation and for avoiding war in all circumstances.

The kind of rumor mongering and media irresponsibility that can increase tensions and possibility of war should also stop.

It is increasingly realized that several terror attacks in India have been aimed at increasing distrust and hostility among various communities and faiths. The statements made by the Pakistan army Chief Asim Munir just a few days before the Pahalgam attack that people of two religions cannot live with each other are not only against the safety of all minorities in South Asia, these are also against basic human values of tolerance and mutual respect among people of all faiths. Thus it appears most likely that well-planned efforts to increase inter-faith hostility are being made. People must rise to defeat these horrible efforts by not just exercising restraint but by taking even more active steps to increase inter-faith harmony and that would be the most fitting reply to those who have been trying to promote hostile feelings and incite violence.

The entire sensitive situation in South Asia and its neighborhood must also be seen in the context of the already serious and increased threats to safety and security of ordinary people. This is all the more the reason why caution and restraint are very necessary in the prevailing conditions. At the world level, the situation is already extremely dangerous and sensitive, with many dangerous conflicts continuing and also facing high risks of escalation and wider spread. In this situation it becomes all the more necessary to avoid a war in South Asia under all circumstances.

Bharat Dogra is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Protecting Earth for Children, Planet in Peril, A Day in 2071 and Man over Machine—A Path to Peace.