Terrorism in South Asia: Part II

Islamic Terrorism more virulent in Islamic Republic of  Pakistan than in India. Problems need to be tackled politically, military means proved futile.    

SATP 2019 Map shows Conflicts in Pakistan, shown in their relative intensity: Areas shown in Red are “Extremely” affected; Orange for “Highly”, Green for “Moderately,”  and Blue for “marginally” affected. The South Asia Terrorism Portal, SATP, founded by India’s Terrorism experts like KPS Gill, evidently shows it from Indian and government’s perspective, one may presume.

(Map Source: https://www.satp.org/conflict-maps/pakistan). The situation in 2024-25 is far worse than what is depicted in the map of 2019. There are more incidents and casualties in Pakistan, whose sovereignty and territorial integrity are really threatened, particularly with reference to Baluchistan now…And POK is in flux.

The Pahalgam incident of April 22 was condemned by one and all, across the world, and rightly so. There were five such incidents before Pahalgam, wherein migrant workers were shot dead. Why was that not big news, like Pahalgam attack on tourists, for the media, or the authorities? After all, they do not give big TRP ratings. And the Govt was not seriously bothered about them.

Part-1 of this article was published on May 10, titled, Terrorism in South Asia: Some Observations in Perspective. Now that a ceasefire came into effect, and a war is averted for now, we can and need to examine various issues objectively, dispassionately, which may help to tackle, if not resolve the problems.    

In this part-2,  among other things, we see various facts and official data, as also the map given above, that show that it is not as if India is a lone victim and Pakistan is a lone offender. Fatalities ascribed to terrorism were 47,812 in India, and 70,880 in Pakistan, during 2000-2025, as per authentic data (details given below).

 This part argues it is basically a home-grown problem, and needs to be tackled politically, by proper combination of economic and political measures. And NOT by military means, which proved to be futile over the decades. This applies to Pakistan too; there terrorism is no less serious, which we shall focus in this part. In Pakistan, the forces or groups involved are almost all Islamic, and they have not spared the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. The Islamic forces are not confined to anti-India or anti-Hindu activities, as projected in India by various agencies, official or unofficial.

Gen Vij , former Army chief, NC Vij, DGMO during Kargil war, while hailing the Op Sindoor, notably said two things: “As a soldier, I don’t think war is an option, even though it is our job to fight. But war never solves much. Ultimately negotiations..” “ Kashmir has been a weapon to unite Pakistan”  (NDTV interview, May 17, 2025).

Three terrorists of JeM, all natives, were killed in south Kashmir, on May 15, after three of LeT on May 13, in Shopian, Kashmir. Only 7 local militants remain active, officials said (Times of India, May 16). And ten were killed in Manipur May 14; none was a Muslim. They were not deterred by deadly war, which is still continuing?    

In the wake of  Op Sindoor, Balochistan terrorists came out and offered to co-ordinate with Indian military. And they declared ‘independence from Pakistan’, on May 14,  Indian media reported: they  supported India’s claims on POK, and appealed to India and the global community for support. These developments in Balochistan are ominous, and undermine India’s credibility in the region and globally. 

At the outset, some clarifications and observations:

We very much welcome the ceasefire in the war in South Asia, and reject jingoists, including those in Congress and the saffron brigade,  who oppose the ceasefire. Political dialog for the resolution of all problems by peaceful means is the need of the hour. PM Modi should stand by his word that wars are no solution in this era. 

The article uses the term “terrorists’ etc as the govt sees it, though the author does not agree with that fully.’Not all Muslims are terrorists, but all terrorists are Muslims..’ This has been a loaded cliche being circulated widely. It is motivated, not objective, and hence needs to be rejected:  

The ignorant as well as the biased need to be reminded: Scores of terrorist groups in India, over the years, had nothing to do with Islam or Muslims, being associated with different elements: Hindu (Eg. Manipur, Assam, Tamilnadu), Sikh-Khalistani (Punjab), Buddhist (Eg Myanmar-based, Srilanka,Tibet), Christian or animist beliefs (Eg Northeast). Some of these groups were backed by those in Europe, Canada, USA. They were not exclusive to Pakistan, though it became a major centre of terrorists for various reasons, which we shall see later.

***                     ***

Pakistan home to 180 Terrorist groups, just as India is

Terrorist groups are playing havoc in Balochistan and a few other provinces of Pakistan. The map is re-purposed to indicate the provinces with their population. Almost all of them are facing the problem of terrorism: 

183 Terrorist groups in Pakistan (including LeT, JeM, ISIS) are listed as proscribed:   all over the country they number 80; and in various provinces: Punjab 35, Sindh 14, Balochistan 19, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa 21, Gilgit-Baltistan 11,  Azad Kashmir 3.  Some of them may be over-lapping, ie., in more than one province. (SATP).

Terrorist groups in India : SATP has listed 180 terrorist groups that have operated within India over the last 20 years, many of them co-listed as transnational, operating in or from neighboring South Asian countries also  such  as Bangladesh, Nepal, Srilanka, Myanmar and Pakistan. Of these, around 40 are on the current list of terrorist organisations banned by India under its First Schedule of the UA(P) Act, 1967.  

As SATP pointed out :
”The roughly 185 million Muslims in India, with very, very rare exception, have rejected the perverse interpretation of their faith” by terrorist groups.” (2017, Ajay Sahni.)” The same is basically true of Pakistan and its people too, it said. The data we presented shows and stresses the same.

Not all countries agree with interpretations found in India. For instance, the OIC Group expressed its “deep concern” over the situation in South Asia. Representing 57 Islamic countries, including Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Emirates, also wooed by Modi and the US, the Group in a statement, reiterated its principled position against, and “condemnation of terrorism in all its forms and manifestations, committed by whomsoever and wherever”; and reaffirms its unequivocal rejection of all attempts to associate any country, race, religion, culture or nationality with terrorism.”

There are other countries also which say so; Eg Nepal, Vietnam, and China, which itself has been facing Islamic terrorism inside their own country, as also outside, as in Pakistan, its close friend.

Not a single country in South Asia came out against Pakistan, and backed Op Sindoor. They want dialog and peaceful resolution of all problems. All are skeptic about India, the Big Brother, which they see as a regional hegemon. The Indian media is singularly silent on this. They want revival of SAARC, which is totally ignored by Modi-led India.    

This article bases itself primarily on the data provided by SATP. Some links to the website can be found here:  https://satp.org/satporgtp/publication/books/global/sahni.htm

As to the veracity of the data, largely based on SATP, see below:

The South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP)

It is a part ofThe Institute For Conflict Management set up on the initiative of its founding President, (Late) Mr. K.P.S. Gill, IPS, and of its Executive Director, Dr. Ajai Sahni. Gill (1934-2017) with 37 years of service was a DGP of Assam (in North East for 28 years), of  Punjab for over 10 years, briefly headed CRP. He was a tough officer who headed the armed forces that suppressed and killed thousands of terrorists and militants, and was awarded Padma shri.   

“SATP is a globally cited resource, and its data has been used by Governments across the world, including the USA. .SATP is the largest website on terrorism and low intensity warfare in South Asia..” 

https://satp.org/satporgtp/publication/books/global/sahni.htm)

 ***                        ***

Why is it virulent in S Asia? Demographics are telling:     

South Asia comprises the largest concentration of Muslims in the world, with over 395 million people professing Islam as their faith. Indeed, India has the second largest population of Muslims – after Indonesia with 240 million – for any country: nearly 142 million.  

Total and Muslim populations of South Asian countries. https://www.satp.org/satporgtp/ajaisahni/nativ2002.htm

Though India’s Muslim population is relatively lower, their absolute numbers are the highest, higher than in Pakistan. This is a product of history, of partition of 1947, in which the British imperialists had the decisive role. Communal strife, mass exoduses were an inseparable part of the geo-politics. Pakistan is only a part, not a creator,of this situation.

***              ***

‘Terrorism’ in India is basically a home-grown problem, that needs to be tackled politically, but not by military means

The elite classes and jingoists shout Jai Jawan, even while using them against our own people and sacrificing them, recklessly. For them, the jawans as well as people are cannon-fodder; they are expendable. Thousands of them, most of them from poorer classes who joined for their livelihood, died fighting their brethren, and few like to die that way: More than one lakh posts in Army, including thousands of officer cadres,  have been unfilled for years now, despite all the shows about patriotism. This is so despite worst unemployment, also among the educated. Jai Jawan is meant only for others.     

About 5 lakh armed forces were regularly deployed, for decades, to ‘handle’ Kashmir, and its ‘terrorists’, as the govt sees them.  Around one lakh Kashmiris were killed, thousands “disappeared” as noted by the Supreme Court, over the decades. Home Minister Amit Shah essentially admitted it in parliament, during the debate on Article 370, though he put the numbers much lower. He blamed Congress rulers for that, but continued the same policy of suppression. The centre banned two peaceful Hurriyat groups, on March 11. One of them, JK Ittehadul Muslimeen, for long advocated Shia-Sunni unity in JK, The Indian Express reported, perhaps felt dangerous .   

An equal number (5 lakh) of armed forces was deployed in Northeast, again for decades, and thousands were killed. The problems remain unresolved, as seen in Manipur latest. About one lakh armed forces are deployed to tackle ‘Left-wing extremism’. Op kagar is used against adivasis fighting for their land and resources. 

Former army chiefs, some of them, had openly opposed such a policy of using armed forces for internal problems. Army’s duty is only to defend borders, they held. Such a policy has been called by by various civil liberties groups, “State terrorism.” Some saw it as “state-sponsored terrorism”. Nepal and Srilanka earlier, Canada and USA recently, not to speak of Pakistan, openly made such allegations against India, and its RAW. Entire South Asia is wary about it. Pakistan of course is most vociferous: It submitted a dossier on the question to UN a couple of years ago.      

As opposed to simplistic understanding, terrorism is varied in forms and content; it is not merely Islamic. India officially subdivides terrorism into four major groups (per Wikipedia):

1. Ethno-nationalism (Eg Kashmir, Northeast),
2. Religious terrorism(which included Sikh Khalistani terrorism),
3. Left-wing terrorism, related to Maoist Party and various ML groups.
4.  Narcoterrorism.  

Ethno-nationalist Terrorism is related to ethnic and nationality problems. Their demand has been “self-determination,” in varied forms and intensities from time to time; and it has been a problem since 1947, took armed form in sixties (Naga Mizo Manipur etc); there was a secessionist movement in Tamilnadu too, but was not armed.The second category, for example Sikh- Khalistani terrorism, began with the autonomy demand of Punjab (Anandpur Sahib Resolution of Akalis, 1978 Oct), and is sought to be revived now. The other two need no explanation.

SATP earlier explained the limited and waning influence of Islamic terrorism in India

Terrorism trend in India – Terror attack-caused civilian and security personnel deaths per year from 1994 to 2013. Source: SATP (South Asia Terrorism Portal). The graph  shows a decline over the years, which is not reversed basically in  years after 2014, when Modi-led NDA came to power.It is evidently not on the rise, as misrepresented.

Two Nation Theory did not help Pakistan, or Bangladesh. Nor will it help India and Kashmir.Was that theory informing Jammu-Kashmir’s (2019 October) tri-furcation – into Muslim Kashmir, Hindu Jammu,and Buddhist Ladakh? Whatever the claims and arguments, the theory didn’t help India, Pakistan or Kashmir; it won’t.

The problems, and hence the solutions, lie elsewhere. We briefly mention some data related to India here below:

***                      ***

“Terrorism”: Half of the alleged activities have little to do with Pakistan or Muslims

Let us see SATP data (described as provisional) for 2000 to 2025: total number of Terrorism-related fatalities,i.e., India’s total is 47, 812. If we view data for Northeast separately, total number of fatalities are 12,125, i.e, around 25%  of India’s total.  Data related to Maoists etc show a total of 11,875 fatalities, they are 24.8 %. If combined, these two categories constitute 50 % of all fatalities, and basically neither Pakistan nor Muslims are involved in them. Thus ‘terrorism’,  as seen from official point of view (SATP data represent them only), is a domestic problem by itself. This will be very clear also from the earlier experience of Punjab:  

Before the year 2000, if we see separately data for Punjab 1981-2000, when it was in crisis-proportions, there the total fatalities were 21,630, compared to JK’s 4981 for 2000-2025. Islam had no role there.         

Instead of handling these problems politically and finding solutions, the Indian State, irrespective of the party in power, resorts to and relies on military means, and the violence continues unabated. Out of India’s total 47,812 fatalities, almost 5000  (4981 to be precise) are related to JK, i.e., 10.4%. Thus viewed from a larger perspective, blaming Pakistan or Muslims is not objective, and does not solve the problem of ‘terrorism’  in India. Their root causes – social, economic and political –  are elsewhere. They need to be tackled NOT by military means, which are futile as seen over the decades, but politically by adopting proper policies.

***                             ***

Terrorism: Number of Incidents of  Killing  and fatalities, more in Pakistan

The Table below has two parts: A Refers to number of Incidents; B is no. of fatalities.

Source: Compiled from SATP Data-sheets.

Notes for the data: 

South Asia data is excluding Afghanistan, where war was on.

 Fatalities Total, and of 3 categories are shown separately, but a negligible number of ‘unspecified’ category 4 ignored, Totals include them too.

* Periods separated to approximate UPA and NDA regimes. 2000 to 2003 shown separately. Totals are for 2000-2025 March. 

** Those mentioned simply as “Terrorists”  here, actually include “Insurgents and Extremists” also, as per SATP classification.

 Notable features of data given in the Table:

 1. Pakistan is much smaller in size and population (25 crore), but it is relatively a bigger victim of terrorism, for various reasons including…

• Afghanistan was invaded by the US and its allies in late 2001, and Afghans started resistance. This war (2001 Oct to 2021 August) had great impact on Pakistan which was a “Frontline” ally of USA, and it had guerrilla Resistance forces too. Thus, the number of terrorist incidents went up from 2.5 % of the total during  2000-2003 to 36% and to 55% in later periods. India’s share went down correspondingly. This development had little to do with India, and was not against Hindus. 
• Number of fatalities also shot up in Pakistan to 40%, compared to 27% in India…out of the South Asian totals, ie., 176,920. India’s share in it was 47,812 (including 22,418 in JK alone, about 85% of them Muslims), and Pakistan’s 70,880, (95% plus of them Muslims).
•  Pakistan had greater fatalities than India in all three categories: particularly among Terrorists and civilians they shot up very high; even Security forces (SFs) were killed in larger numbers. Out of 70,880 fatalities, there were 35,950  (50%) terrorists, compared to India’s  24,507 . Pakistan’s  9544 Security forces were killed compared to India’s 7579. One can not say Pakistan is not acting against terrorists.
• Pakistan paid a heavier price with 70,880 fatalities during 2000-2024 (Only  3500 killed were those of USA or West) almost all Muslims, fighting on both sides of the war, compared with 47,812 of Indians. Fatalities in J&K were 22418, and major part of them were Muslims, whether civilians or terrorists.

All the data show that Pakistan and Muslims are bigger victims, than India and Hindus.

These figures show that Pakistan has been killing terrorists, using military means; one can’t say it is not curbing them at all. Even civilians’ killings were more in Pakistan (22,174) than in India(14,516).

Source: SATP Graph of Terrorist incidents in Pakistan, Number of those killed.

 Pakistan claims it is tackling terrorism, that shot up after Afghan invasion by US. The Afghan war (2001-2021) was the longest in US war history, and it played havoc with Pakistan, and the adjoining areas.The arms left behind by USA in 2021 are a factor.         

SATP cited Pakistan’s National Action Plan with 20 Points, including:  Implementation of death sentence of those convicted in cases of terrorism;  Special trial courts under the supervision of Army; Strict action against related literature, newspapers etc; Choking financing for terrorist and terrorist organizations; Ensuring against re-emergence of proscribed organizations; Zero tolerance for militancy in Punjab;  Balochistan government to be fully empowered for political reconciliation with complete ownership by all stakeholders;  Revamping and reforming the criminal justice system.

 (See Appendix-1 for full list).

That these measures could not curb terrorism is obvious. India blames Pak rulers are not sincere in implementing them. 

What about measures taken by India and its rulers? 

We have seen Manipur very recently, where hundreds of fire-arms were stolen with impunity by Meitis, with the support of the administration and the ruling party.The PM avoided a visit, and the CM was accused of supporting them.  

Prakash Singh (IPS), expert on Terrorism, who had headed BSF and Assam police, and worked to curb Nagas and Assam’s terrorists like ULFA , has something to say. Author of the comprehensive book, The Naxalite Movement in India (2016), herevealed how India’s ruling parties hobnobbed with the terrorist groups; he said it can not be ended as long as they stop doing that, apart from addressing the underlying problems.

Northeast is full of such examples, former terrorists being wooed, and made chief ministers.    

Indian experience also shows such means did not, can not, put an end to terrorism, unless underlying problems are addressed. Kashmir and Northeast problems have  been there since 1947, with ups and downs; so also “Left-wing extremism”, as the govt calls it, from Telangana days (1945-51) to Op Kagar now.

***                      ***

Terrorism in South Asia, a cockpit of super power rivalry

“During the cold war, South Asia served as a second theatre for US-Soviet rivalry,” experts say. 

Many Islamic groups are also admittedly groomed by USA for its own strategic purposes.

Terrorism in Pakistan can not be separated from the Super Powers’ Role. India too was dragged into it. The ruling classes of both countries hobnobbed with them variously, and they continue to do so even today.

A brief overview is necessary to understand ‘Terrorism in South Asia.’ and it helps to address the problem.

Pakistan’s Terrorists “used as proxies by the USA,”  said Pakistan’s  Defence Minister, Khawaja Asif (Apr 24, Sky News). He admitted that Pakistan harbours and funds terror organisations. But the latter part of his statement was underplayed by Indian media:  

“We have been doing this dirty work for the USA for about three decades and for the West, including Britain…we were “used as proxies by the USA”..  That was a mistake and we suffered for that…and earlier the same terror groups had been treated like VIPs in Washington. (Times of India, April 26, 2025.)

The Bangladesh war of 1971 played havoc with South Asia 

It left behind a crisis still haunting South Asia. It was not merely a regional conflict, but was one that involved both super powers (USA and Soviet Union). South Asia became cockpit for super power rivalry. Pakistan had joined, in 1950s, two US-led military alliances, SEATO and CENTO, and quit both in 1973 when it found they did not save it from dismemberment by a war, which had India and Soviet Union on the other side. India had deserted Non-alignment, entered into Indo-Soviet Alliance with military clauses, in 1971 August, before it ventured into the war in December. The treaty was formally extended in 1991 for 20 more years, but lapsed soon with Soviet collapse months later.

Almost 10 million Bengali refugees fled to India. Most of them went back home, but around 1.5 million stayed back in India.  

We know what havoc it played, continues to play, in India and the sub-continent. Similar but far worse was the situation in Pakistan that was dragged into the Afghan wars, which also involved the two super powers, first the Soviet Union, and later the US.

***               ***

India and Pakistan have massive arms supplies from USA for decades, and from Russia too recently. Blaming China and Turkiey is motivated. 

Ignoring this super power rivalry, Indian media, playing to the tunes of Western arms lobbies, kicked up a row and blamed China and Turkey are behind Pakistan.

Pakistan was flooded with weapons from USA and its allies for decades, more so after the Afghan wars (1979-2021). Some estimate they were worth $13 billion. US ‘suspended’ military aid, about $2 billion per year, only in 2018. When US was driven out by Taliban in 2021, it left behind vehicles, weapons and munitions worth billions of dollars. They fell into the hands of Islamic forces in Pakistan too, and some are used in the Kashmir conflicts.

The weapons left behind by USA “are surfacing in another conflict, further arming militants in the disputed South Asian region of Kashmir in what experts say could be just the start of the weapons’ global journey.”    

Major Gen Ajay Chandpuria, a senior who has lot of experience in the border areas, and Manoj Sinha, now Lt Governor of JK, said the govt was aware of the issue, and taking measures. (NBC News 2023, Jan 30)   

 Ignoring all this, India and its Big media, as also the arms lobbies, kicked up a false narrative that weapons from China and Turkiye were decisive, and proved futile. China was approached by Pakistan after USA suspended arms supplies in 2018, and China then responded.        

Soviet Union was the source of India’s weaponry (it was 70% of arms imports until a decade ago; even now Russia is the single largest supplier to India). Two weapon systems Indian media lauded to skies during the latest Op Sindoor, S-400 and Brahmos, were both of Soviet origin. Then there were weapon and air-defence systems from the West, and from Israel, the notorious US ally, including the tainted Rafaels, now sanctified by the Op Sindoor.      

The fact is Russia too supplied huge military equipment(helicopters, anti-tank guided missiles) to Pakistan, also during the last five years.They signed a military co-op agreement in 2014. And again in 2024, they had Defence agreements, including joint training programs. Even Israel supplied weapon systems (Radars, Electronic warfare systems etc) , during 2008-2012, though both sides keep it secret, even deny.   

***                          ***

The ‘distinctions’ of Pakistan, and role of US imperialism

Pakistan has a huge population of 25 crore, and high density of 331 people per sq km. GDP growth was 6.2 in FY 2022, but fell to 2.4 in 2024. The Islamic Republic of Pakistan is a “failed state,” we are told with glee, with GDP per capita of 1588 dollars in 2024,  compared to South Asia’s  2750 and India’s 2700. But we should remind ourselves of our smaller neighbor, crisis-ridden Srilanka with 3100. Bangladesh’s is  2700, despite a huge population of 175 million people and a very high a density of population of 1265 per sq km, compared to India’s 500 (all approximate).

India sees USA as its democratic ally, but refuses to see the havoc it played in the region

SATP explained: 

“ All developing societies confront the problem of accommodating a variety of groups that owe allegiance to – often ideologically – conflicting views and Pakistan is no exception. What distinguishes Pakistan from other South Asian countries, however, is the easy and abundant availability of weapons..” Most of the weapons were pumped in by the USA and the West.

India too had a role, even if indirect, and historical..Two nation theory had roots in colonial India before partition. ..”Pakistani Nationalism” was thus born.

In the later phase, USA roped in Pakistan into its military alliances, SEATO and CENTO. The Afghan war by USA was another turning point. 

Not only religious sectarianism but ethnic divides also got mixed up and aggravated. Even here, India’s role can be seen.

( See Appendix-2 for more on this.) 

Amid this turmoil came the two prolonged Afghan wars (1979 to 2022), and America’s role.

Drugs promoted, also by USA : India silent?  

SATP observed: “The process of Islamisation of the State and the Afghan war were turning points in the role of Islamic orthodoxy in Pakistan.. This also brought into Pakistan a more codified and strict Wahabi Islam from Saudi Arabia. The role of Pakistan as frontline state, serving American interests in the war against Communist Soviet Union, led to a major fall out for Pakistan and its society…”

“ America stopped its campaign to check the growth and export of heroin in the wake of larger strategic interests, which had a catastrophic impact on Pakistani society. The number of drug users in Pakistan today stands at 3. 2 million. This was one of the major offshoots of active involvement in the Afghan crisis and the state’s decision, in the early eighties, to be a conduit for Western weapons bound for the war in Afghanistan..Drug-trafficking is the most important source of finance for most militant groups.”

“There have been a number of consequences of this involvement in Afghanistan, and many of these have fostered violent internal conflicts in Pakistan. They include:

“ The migration of Afghan refugee groups to major urban regions of Pakistan added to antagonisms within the Pakistani society, especially in Karachi where ethnic strife increased…

“ The ‘victory’ of the Taliban in Afghanistan has freed substantial numbers of these ‘students'(Talibs), as well as their motivators and mentors; who are now progressively turning their attention to other areas of conflict, including Pakistan itself..

A havoc with armed fighters, deaths, refugees…each in millions

A havoc, comparable to the two world wars, and the Vietnam war.    

 It all began with Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, continued after US-led global war against terrorism, and lasted until US was driven out by Talibans (2021 Aug).    

The Soviet intervention and later, occupation of Afghanistan (1979 Dec to 1989 Feb), and involved around 2 million civilian deaths, and almost 2 lakh deaths of armed forces. Around 3.3 million Afghan refuges were housed in Pakistan by 1988. Arms, supplied by USA and the West as against Soviets, were all over in Afghanistan in lakhs;  even AK-47s, were sold openly in the streets.

The crisis continued after US-led global war (2001 onwards) against terrorism, and lasted until US was driven out by Talibans in 2021. It was the longest continuous war in US history. This war led to deaths, of over 1.5 lakh armed forces on both sides, and as many civilians.

These two wars spawned millions of armed fighters, and scores of Islamic Jihadi groups. The US left behind, as per a Report (of 2022 Aug) by US Defence dept, military equipment worth around 7 Billion dollars. Even if vehicles etc are excluded, more than 316,000 weapons and ammunition worth $ 512 million are left in the hands of local people.

***           ***

Terrorism in Balochistan : Pakistan more a victim than a sponsor? 

Over 700 security forces were killed by terrorists in the last three years,  SATP recently published a paper, Balochistan: Assessment- 2025. The region constitutes 44% of territory of Pakistan, which asserts India and its RAW have a big role in it. It reiterated that  soon after a whole train, Jaffar Express, was ambushed on March 12(Economic Times 2025, March 20). Kulbhushan Jadhav, linked with RAW, confessed, reported Hindustan Times 2017 June 22, with full text of the confession. Pakistan submitted a detailed Dossier (with names and details of groups) on India’s role to UN Secretary general in October 2020. India denied its hand. In fact, other provinces also have terrorist groups operating, as seen above. 

In the wake of  Op Sindoor, Indian media highlighted: Balochistan terrorists came out and offered to co-ordinate with India. And they declared independence from Pakistan, on May 14, supported India’s claims on POK, and appealed to India and the global community for support. 

Here is a backgrounder to developments in Balochistan

Indians have notions about Pakistani polity that are not objective. We shall examine just one example.

Balochistan is a province – the largest in size  in Pakistan (44% of its land area), but with a smaller population of over 15 million, 99.5% of them being Muslims. The rest are mostly Hindus (0.4%, around 60,000)  who are influential economically. Compared to other regions, they are more secure, they have their temples, and they have 3 seats reserved for minorities in the provincial assembly; 11 out of 65 seats are reserved for women. The state has a Governor, appointed on the advice of the Chief Minister. 40% people speak Balochi, 35% Pashto, 17% Brahui (a Dravidian language!), 8% six other languages, including Sindhi, Punjabi, and Urdu (0.53%). More than 3 lakh Afghan refugees also resided there. It had provincial polls in 2024 Feb (43% turnout). Previous elections were held regularly every five years since 1997. 

A secret Balochistan govt paper of 2014 says : Daish claims to have gathered 10 to 12 thousand from Hangu and kurram agency for attacks on govt, for seizure of govt installations etc .

SATP  It referred to recent incidents in Jan 2025 , wherein (BLA) cadres seized control of the whole of Zehri town, banks looted (over PKR 90 million) , govt offices were attacked and set ablaze, and arms and army vehicles were taken away ( 20 AK-47 rifles, 4,000 rounds of ammunition and 10 motorcycles). Via its media channel Hakkal, BLA subsequently claimed responsibility. ..According to the group, the operation served as a “military exercise” ahead of the second phase of ‘Operation Herof’ (Operation Dark Storm). Similar reports about other towns (Eg. of Kech dt) were also published by the media. SATP reviewd:  

“Through 2024, 315 SF fatalities were recorded in the province, a rise of 69.35 per cent over year 2023, at 186 SF fatalities. In terms of SF fatalities, the 2024 tally was the highest since the SATP database started documenting fatalities in Pakistan. The preceding high in the province was 202 in 2022.”

“The overall fatalities in Balochistan in 2024 totalled 774 (273 civilians, 315 SF personnel and 186 terrorists) in 250 incidents of killing, as against 471 such fatalities (160 civilians, 186 SF personnel, and 125 terrorists) in 169 such incidents in 2023, registering an increase of 64.33 per cent. SFs killed in 2022 were 202. The number of deaths was the highest in over a decade. 975 fatalities were recorded in the province in 2013.

“Incidents of killing increased from 169 in 2023 to 250 in 2024. Such incidents have been on an ascending trend since 2021. There were 148 such incidents in 2016, and dropped to 82 in 2017, 69 in 2018 and 48 in 2019, spiking to 76 in 2020, 111 in 2021, 160 in 2022 and 169 in 2023. Similarly, major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities) increased from 52 in 2023 to 74 in 2024, and the resultant fatalities from 299 to 539. The number of explosions and resultant fatalities increased from 92 and 162, respectively, in 2023, to 203 and 279, respectively, in 2024. Though the number of suicide attacks increased from five in 2023 to six in 2024, the resultant fatalities decreased in 2024 to 65, from 70 in 2023.”

National Party (NP) President Dr. Malik Baloch claimed that 3,000 people were to be included in the Fourth Schedule, ie., proscribed list.

Balochistan developments are ominous, and they undermine the credibility of Indian claims. All of India’s neighbors, those in the SAARC, are alarmed. 

***                               ***

Appendix-1

SATP cited Pakistan’s National Action Plan with 20 Points, including:

1. Implementation of death sentence of those convicted in cases of terrorism.

2. Special trial courts under the supervision of Army. The duration of these courts would be two years.

3. Militant outfits and armed gangs will not be allowed to operate in the country.

4. NACTA, the anti-terrorism institution will be strengthened.

5. Strict action against the literature, newspapers and magazines promoting hatred, extremism, sectarianism and intolerance.

6. Choking financing for terrorist and terrorist organizations.

7. Ensuring against re-emergence of proscribed organizations.

8. Establishing and deploying a dedicated counter-terrorism force.

9. Taking effective steps against religious persecution.

10. Registration and regulation of religious seminaries.

11. Ban on glorification of terrorists and terrorist organizations through print and electronic media.

12. Administrative and development reforms in FATA with immediate focus on repatriation of IDPs.

13. Communication network of terrorists will be dismantled completely.

14. Measures against abuse of internet and social media for terrorism.

15. Zero tolerance for militancy in Punjab. 

16. Ongoing operation in Karachi will be taken to its logical end.

17. Balochistan government to be fully empowered for political reconciliation with complete ownership by all stakeholders.

18. Dealing firmly with sectarian terrorists.

19. Formulation of a comprehensive policy to deal with the issue of Afghan refugees, beginning with registration of all refugees.

20. Revamping and reforming the criminal justice system.

http://nacta.gov.pk/NAPPoints20.htm

https://www.satp.org/document/paper-acts-and-oridinances/national-action-plan-20-points

Not only religious sectarianism but ethnic divides also got mixed up and aggravated. Even here, India’s role can be seen.

Appendix-2 : Sectarian and ethnic strife in Pakistan.  

Thus, both Wahabi and Deobandi schools in Pakistan became active, with factors that had nothing against India or Hindus. In fact, both these orthodox Sunni schools were rooted in India, UP in particular,  and later spread westwards in South Asia, to Afghanistan etc. They were activated later in Pakistan too. Saudis, allies of USA, played a key role.

“Unlike the Sindhis, the new Mohajir society did not suffer from the restrictions imposed by a feudal order and hence adapted to modern education. Being in the forefront of the struggle for Pakistan, they were naturally in a dominant position and were ardent supporters of Pakistani nationalism, as opposed to the regional identities professed by the Sindhis, Pathans and Punjabis..”..

“According to a report, (due to the strife, hundreds were killed) “streets of Hyderabad were littered with bodies right from Hirabad to Latifabad”.

Amid this turmoil came the two prolonged Afghan wars (1979 to 2022), and America’s role.

See Part-1, Terrorism in South Asia: Some Observations in Perspective, published on May 10.  

Ramakrishnan is a political observer who regularly contributed  to countercurrents.org.

***                     ***