How to Prevent Further and Bigger Losses in Ukraine

Ukraine is among those countries that have suffered extremely high losses in recent wars. In fact no other country, including Sudan, has suffered such heavy loss of life as Ukraine in war and conflict during the last five years or so. Russia too has suffered heavily, although not to the same extent.

A recent paper titled ‘Ukraine’s battlefield position is deteriorating fast’ has provided an indication of this. This paper written by Ret. Lt. Col. Alex Vershinin of USA has been published by ‘Russia Matters, Harvard Kennedy School’ and subsequently by ‘Responsible Statecraft, Quincy Institute, USA’.  Providing best available estimates based on consulting several sources this paper has stated that about 769,000 persons have died in this war on the Ukraine side, and about the same number have suffered serious long-term injury. Although the paper does not state this clearly, most of these mortality and serious injury figures are likely to be in the context of soldiers.  On the Russian side, the number of dead in the army has been estimated at between 98,000 to about double of this, while the number of those who have suffered such injury that they cannot return to fighting has been estimated to be around 112,000 ( about one-fourth of those who have sustained any injuries).  

This paper estimates the present strength of the Russian army in this war to be around 1.5 million, while the present strength of the Ukrainian army in this war is estimated to be between 1 million to 0.8 million. The Russian army is much better equipped in terms of training and replacement. Last year alone the number of desertions by Ukrainian soldiers was about one hundred thousand. The population of Russia is about three times that of Ukraine. The artillery ammunition produced by Russia is many, many times higher than what is produced by Ukraine, and remains significantly high even if outside supplies to Ukraine are added.

Adding together all these aspects, Ukraine may suffer further heavy loss of life and even territory if war continues. Hence this paper recommends that Ukraine should reach an agreement with Russia very soon to end war. Even though such an agreement now also would involve painful loss of territory, the loss would be much higher later if the war continues on its ruinous course, as the battlefield position of Ukraine is adverse just now and fast deteriorating, and at a certain stage the Ukraine army may even collapse.

Other renowned experts such as Prof. John Mearsheimer known for studying this issue in great detail have given similar indications and warnings. All the available facts placed on table together suggest that Ukraine should hasten to reach peace on the basis of accepting the loss of territory that has already taken place and giving up its insistence of NATO membership. This in fact merely amounts to accepting the reality as Ukraine is extremely unlikely to achieve NATO membership in the changing conditions and it is even less likely to be able to get back already lost territory on the battlefield.

Accepting reality to secure peace on this basis very soon seems now to be much more realizable with the support of the USA. In fact, most countries of Europe should also accept this reality, instead of taking a position that will lead to further heavy loss of life among the Ukrainian people and soldiers, something that can be avoided and Europe can contribute to this.

However it remains highly questionable whether President Zelenskyy, some other key members of the ruling elite of Ukraine and particularly the neo-Nazi elements will go ahead with such a practical, achievable path of peace because they do not see their narrow, selfish interests to be in alignment with this. However, this stand taken by them cannot be called a patriotic stand serving the interests of Ukrainian people as having led the country on a ruinous path already they will be causing further great ruin and loss of life, according to all available indications.

If they say ‘we can still defeat Russia’ then is this realistic? Even if it is not realistic, let us imagine that some almost magical change takes place and Ukraine comes close to defeating Russia, then also can we forget that Russia has the largest number of nuclear weapons in the world and will use them whenever there is an existential type of crisis or when there is an attack by a nuclear power or a conventional weapon power supported by a nuclear weapon power?

Hence all the available facts appear to suggest that Ukraine should concentrate on avoiding further and potentially even bigger losses by clinching a comprehensive peace agreement that appears realizable today, in the changed circumstances, with US support. This peace agreement should be followed immediately with very large-scale reconstruction and rehabilitation effort, bringing much-needed relief to the Ukrainian people. This will also be in the best interests of world peace.

Bharat Dogra is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Planet in Peril, Protecting Earth for Children Man over Machine and A Day in 2071.