Why Israel Needs the US and Why It Could Backfire on the US

Israel’s war on Iran is escalating fast. Within six days, Israeli airstrikes killed top Iranian military commanders and destroyed several surface-level civilian installations. But one key target remains untouched: Iran’s deeply buried non-military nuclear infrastructure, which Israel has used as a pretext to start the war.

Despite Israel’s aerial dominance, it lacks the weapons needed to destroy Iran’s most fortified nuclear site. That’s why many experts believe Israel needs direct US military involvement. But such a move carries enormous risks for the United States.

Israel Can’t Reach Fordow But the US Can

At the heart of Israel’s strategic goals is Fordow, an Iranian uranium enrichment facility buried deep beneath a mountain near Qom, south of Tehran. Unlike other sites like Natanz and Isfahan, Fordow lies nearly 100 meters underground, protected by layers of reinforced rock and concrete.

On June 15, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Israeli strikes had caused “no damage” to the Fordow site. This is no surprise. Fordow was specifically designed to withstand air attacks.

Former US Army lieutenant general and Rand Corporation defense researcher, explained: “only the United States has the conventional capacity” to destroy such a site.
By “conventional,” Schwartz meant the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, or “MOP”; a 13-ton bomb built to penetrate deep into the earth before detonating.

According to the US Air Force, the MOP was designed to penetrate up to 200 feet (61 meters) of reinforced concrete or rock before exploding. The bomb’s steel-reinforced casing allows it to dig deep before a specialized fuse triggers the blast inside a structure or void.

As Masao Dahlgren, a weapons expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), explains that the fuse on the GBU-57 doesn’t detonate upon impact. It detects cavities, meaning it explodes only once it has entered the bunker.

Israel does not possess the GBU-57. Only the US B-2 stealth bomber is capable of carrying it, and even then, only two bombs per mission. While some of these bombers were recently seen in Diego Garcia, a key US base in the Indian Ocean, they were no longer visible in satellite images by mid-June.

Still, Dahlgren noted that “B-2s are able to fly all the way to the Middle East to do bombing runs. That’s been done before.”

Why Israel Wants the US to Strike

Israel’s military and political leadership believe that degrading Iran’s nuclear program without American help is impossible. Airstrikes alone cannot destroy underground facilities like Fordow. The Israeli Air Force lacks the payload, the delivery systems, and the legal cover to act unilaterally on that scale.

Moreover, US involvement lends international legitimacy, intelligence superiority, and added military firepower. It also deters Iran’s regional allies, including Hezbollah and Yemen.

Netanyahu’s government, already locked in a high-stakes regional war, may see US support as the only way to ensure strategic success. However, bringing the US into a direct confrontation with Iran is not without consequences, especially for Washington.

How US Involvement Could Backfire

• Regional Escalation: If the US strikes Iran directly, the conflict may widen overnight. Iran’s regional allies could target US troops in Iraq, Syria, and the Gulf, or launch missiles at American bases and warships.

• Economic Fallout: Iran could retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint through which 20% of global oil flows. According to the Brookings Institution, even the threat of conflict there would spike oil prices and hurt global markets.

• Nuclear Acceleration: Instead of ending Iran’s nuclear ambitions, a US strike could encourage Tehran to abandon all restraint. As Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group warned: “One of the concerns in attacking the nuclear sites has been that setbacks could lead Iran to reconstitute their operations with a more determined effort to obtain a nuclear deterrent.”

• Diplomatic Isolation: A strike without international backing could isolate the US from key European and Arab allies. It may also derail efforts to engage Iran diplomatically on nuclear and regional issues.
• Taxpayer Burden: A war with Iran could also place a heavy financial burden on American taxpayers. According to the Costs of War project at Brown University, past US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have already cost over $6.5 trillion, when long-term interest and veterans’ care are included. The Iraq War alone cost each US taxpayer nearly $8,000, and a new conflict with Iran could drive that figure even higher, especially if it becomes prolonged or expands across the region.
• Legal and Ethical Risks: A US offensive without Congressional or UN authorization could be seen as illegal. If civilian casualties mount, international bodies could accuse the US of war crimes.

Israel sees US involvement as the key to destroy Iran and create a new Middle East, where Israel is dominant. But what works for Israel may be strategic suicide for the United States.

The use of America’s most powerful non-nuclear bomb, the GBU-57, might destroy Fordow. Yet doing so could ignite a wider regional war, trigger economic shocks, and deepen geopolitical isolation for Washington.

Whether Trump agrees to take that risk remains to be seen, but the consequences, for better or worse, will likely last for years.