By now, it is evident that both Narendra Modi and Amit Shah are deeply invested in managing information and controlling the narrative on a daily basis. This has become an addictive exercise for them, one they thrive on. Needless to say, the two leaders of the BJP have complete control over the central agencies, making it easy to claim that they can manipulate them as they wish. From targeting opposition leaders to seemingly orchestrating the imprisonment of two Chief Ministers (Delhi and Jharkhand), their influence is evident. The same applies to the Election Commission, where corruption appears to have started with the appointment of top officials. With central agencies in their hands and ‘Godi media’ narrating their own stories, it becomes easy for the ruling party to set the narrative they want. In this article, we will explore the ways in which Modi and Shah have played their roles in manipulating the story and setting their narrative to secure the victory they need to retain power at the centre.
Election Phases: A Tool for Narrative Management
When it comes to planning elections, carrying them out in various phases has always helped political parties. With Modi and Shah at the centre stage, it is interesting to see how they have left no stone unturned to keep the ball rolling according to their whims and fancies. Hence, if you look at the elections in the South, they were conducted in one stretch for an obvious reason. An extended seven-phase election actually helps Modi and Shah play this elaborate game of information and narrative management. For instance, Modi openly admitted to a large audience on India TV that his claim of winning “400-plus seats” was a strategy to distract the opposition and media, knowing only 272 seats were needed to form a government. Similarly, the Election Commission’s sudden secrecy about voter turnout, a routine disclosure in the past, was likely an effort to counter any narrative suggesting a low turnout meant waning support for Modi.
Ground Reality vs. Controlled Narrative
Reports from across India suggest that the Modi magic of 2014 and 2019 is missing this time, with elections being fought largely on local issues like unemployment, inflation, and rural distress. Even the stock market’s downward trend after the first phase indicated a more uncertain verdict than the “400-plus” narrative propagated by Modi and Shah. The Satta Bazar’s fluctuating seat predictions further underscore the instability in voter sentiment. However, on the contrary, we can see the Modi camp busy promoting non-issues like targeting Muslims, attacking the opposition, spreading lies about various political leaders and parties, and deceiving voters with blatant falsehoods by the PM himself. Check his recent statement where he insulted the Father of the Nation, Mahatma Gandhi, by claiming that he was made popular by a Hollywood movie, which is strange and disgusting to hear. Thus, it is interesting to note the gap between ground zero and the place where these leaders dwell.
Analysts’ Predictions and BJP’s Bravado
Election managers like Prashant Kishore have suggested that the BJP might surpass its 2019 tally, while also acknowledging potential losses in key regions. Contradictorily, Kishore endorsed Yogendra Yadav’s forecast that BJP might secure only 240 to 260 seats, below the majority mark. Meanwhile, BJP leadership, including Amit Shah and J.P. Nadda, confidently claims that the party has already crossed 310 seats. However, there is a reality called anti-Incumbency. So, despite the BJP’s optimistic projections, significant anti-incumbency sentiment is evident, especially in states like Maharashtra. The anger in Maharashtra is largely directed against the BJP at the Centre, fueled by issues such as the crash in onion prices due to the Centre’s export policies. This resentment could lead to a substantial loss of seats for the BJP in the state.
Maharashtra a classic example of a Swing State
Amid all this, we see the example of Maharashtra, with its 48 seats, could be the biggest swing state favouring the opposition. The discontent is not just limited to farmers but extends to broader economic and political grievances, including the splintering of state politics and the shift of economic projects to Gujarat. Analysts suggest the NDA alliance could drop from 41 seats in 2019 to fewer than 20 in 2024.
The final thoughts
As the 2024 elections are about to end, it is clear that Narendra Modi’s political persona has changed. Gone are the days when his last-minute speeches could sway neutral voters. His recent speeches have become predictable and often include low-level attacks on the opposition. Similar is the case with Amit Shah, the so-called Chanakya of Indian politics. The 2024 election results, even if the NDA retains power, will reflect this decline and mark a significant shift in Modi’s political journey. Several factors can contribute to the perception that Modi and Shah might be losing their relevance as the 2024 elections approach. However, it’s important to note that political landscapes can shift rapidly, and the BJP has shown resilience and adaptability in the past.
(Mohd Ziyauallah Khan is a freelance content writer based in Nagpur. He is also an activist and social entrepreneur, co-founder of the group TruthScape, a team of digital activists fighting disinformation on social media.)
