Though many people are quipping that the new government is unlikely to last long,there is no doubt that it will be in the interest of the three major parties involved to stretch it out at least for a couple of years.Both TDP and JDU are today in a position to exact much more from the present coalition than from alliance with the INDIA grouping.Meanwhile hoping and acting for splits and divisions in the latter.For raw interest rather than any higher ideology has brought them together.
Political observers believe Modi with his dictatorial temperament and experience of laying down the law will prove unable to accommodate the expectations and claims of his two main collaborators.Only time will tell.But all three of them are as wily and crafty as any in this game of brinkmanship.
The crux of the matter is control over the key fulcrums of power.The ministries of Home,Finance and Defence,as well the stewardship of the houses of Parliament.These are the instruments to keep both allies and enemies under pressure.There is grim and hard bargaining going on about their allotment.It transpires that Modi/BJP dispensation is determined not to part with them. For it is unaccustomed to the practice of playing the second fiddle and a position where it cannot call the shots.
BJP’s romance with big monopolists depends on its capacity to deliver on policy requirements of leading monopolists.And that is of predominant interest to a kind of economic management that benefits both.As we have seen it has led to soaring unemployment, loss of income for working people and blistering inflation.And,of course, fantastic profit and accumulation of wealth. Besides it is addicted to a policy of keeping everybody else on his or her toes.
If Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu fail to get hold of at least one of the key levers of power,they will be reduced to sharing the stigma and ignominy of notoriously anti-people helplessly without anything to recompense the damage to their reputation.And that they will since BJP can not afford to depart from the toxic policies it has been pursuing.It is only a matter of time.
Both Nitish and Chandrababu have some experience in dealing with big business.But they have no stomach for the communal agenda which for BJP is the heart of policy,for distraction as well as for fulfillment of ideological commitment.And neither of them is ready to play the role of a mute spectator of programmes that run contrary to their interests. So an interesting bout or two of arm-wrestling among these three colleagues are on the cards.
Hiren Gohain is a political commentator
