Consider the consequences of a Biden victory in November 2024. Trump will almost certainly deny the victory, and the fact that his loyalists are armed to the teeth and number in the millions will likely lead to a violent, civil strife, even if it falls short of a full-fledged civil war. Just to remind readers, we are in the 21st century, in the year 2024. The fact that at this time, we are discussing the possibility of a massive civil conflict over a manufactured lie would be outright comical if it weren’t so dangerous. The civil strife would likely be accompanied by attempts by various states to secede from the union. Republican controlled states such as Florida and Texas could choose to not recognize the federal government and essentially secede from the United States by doing as they please; we are already seeing that play out in a limited form by the state of Texas when it comes to immigration laws. The Biden administration would be faced with the option of using the US military to bring the seceding states back into the union. Even if they don’t exercise the military option, which is likely given Biden’s commitment to bipartisanship, we would be faced with a massive constitutional impasse, the likes of which have no precedent in US history.
This is the first time in American history that a politician has as much sway over his base as Trump does. Trump has the ability to claim whatever he wants and have tens of millions of Americans believe him unquestionably. If he claims that an election was stolen, it is sufficient for his base to believe the claim, even if they are doing so due to an allegiance to him rather than a belief in the truth value of what Trump is claiming. If he claims that the sun revolves around the earth, then his base would believe the same. His base places more trust in Trump than in their own partners and in their pastors. In this respect, Trump is absolutely unique. No one before him, not George W. Bush, not Ronald Reagan, literally no one, commanded such loyalty from their base. For the religious right among his base, it doesn’t matter even a little that he himself flouts all religious morals. It is taken as an article of faith that he is the Chosen one who is allowed to act as he pleases. Crucially, Trump’s depredations are seen as a way to shake things up in a system in which trust is totally lost; it is as if Trump’s base loves him not despite his depredations, but because of them.
Now consider the consequences of a Trump victory. Unlike other wannabe dictators, Trump 2.0 is very clear about his dictatorial impulses. Much has been written about Plan 2025, Trump’s plan to fill the civil service with loyalists, punish dissidents, pardon the Jan 6 insurrectionists, and use the US military to deport immigrants to concentration camps. It is imperative that we appreciate the magnitude of the impact replacing the civil service with loyalists will have. As one illustrative example, consider the Department of Health and Human Services. Plan 2025 involves renewing the above department in a way that effectively enforces a national abortion ban, even if enforcing a national abortion ban through Congress proves difficult. It is less a public health plan and more a theocratic manifesto, attacking reproductive freedom and LGBTQ rights under the garb of religion. One of the less remarked possibilities of a Trump victory is that it could be the last fair election of our lifetimes. Trump has repeatedly threatened to ignore rules around term limits and there is a real possibility of him making his dictatorship permanent.
The above possibilities are absolutely unprecedented in American history. Even if the worst case does not materialize, there will almost certainly be a constitutional crisis of some form in any scenario. The threat of looming fascism is creepy and real.
Raghav Kaushik is an activist based in Seattle. He was involved in the historic victory that banned caste discrimination in the city of Seattle. He has also been involved in various other causes like the fight against intellectual property protections applied to covid vaccines, Tax Amazon, and the fight against the Modi regime in India.
