The most worrying aspect of some extremely costly and threatening conflicts in recent times has been that despite their high costs, these seem to be getting more and more prolonged. The added risk is that the more prolonged there are, there are increased chances of escalation and a wider conflict which would be even more threatening for world peace.
In the case of the Gaza conflict at least several efforts for achieving ceasefire and peace have been made (all such efforts have also included the release of Israeli hostages) and for a considerable stretch of time there were reports on almost daily basis regarding the progress (or not) of these efforts. Qatar and Egypt in particular have been involved more in these efforts but they have been seeking the cooperation of others too, particularly the USA, in their efforts. The USA also claimed to have taken the initiative for peace at times. Then, even more significantly, there have been UN resolutions calling for ceasefire. Despite this nothing has been achieved and the extreme distress of people of Gaza caused by the conflict is nowhere near ending despite increasing worldwide concern over it.
On the contrary, other fronts of this conflict, which have existed from the beginning of the conflict, appear to show a worsening situation. In this context there was much concern recently regarding the increased chance of a bigger conflict between the Israeli forces and Hezbollah starting on the Lebanon front. In addition there have been several reports regarding the increasing violence and aggression in the West Bank region also.
While in Gaza at least peace-making efforts have been seen somewhat frequently even though without raising much hope, in the Russia-Ukraine conflict such visibility of any serious efforts is even less. Of course a very significant peace effort was made at a very early stage of the war which had reached a very advanced stage and raised hope of ending this war with all its dangers just within two months or so, but these peace efforts were sabotaged by very powerful forces. After this any serious and sincere efforts involving both sides which could raise high hopes have just not been seen.
This is extremely sad and worrying due to the very high risks of escalation and widening of this particular war. As it is, it is proving to be the most costly ongoing war in terms of loss of human lives. However the even bigger danger is that more than any other ongoing conflict, it is this war which has the highest chances of leading to a direct confrontation between USA/NATO and Russia. These two sides have about 11,000 nuclear weapons with them. Any possibilities of a direct confrontation between the two sides is widely seen to be a very serious threat not just to world peace but even to world survival if nuclear weapons get involved.
Keeping in view all these factors the prolonging of Palestinian and Ukraine conflicts is being seen as deeply worrying. At the same time several other serious conflicts like the civil war in Sudan, which are relatively much easier to resolve, have also dragged on for a long time inflicting high costs, particularly in terms of very high displacement of people.
An overview of all the conflicts in the world also reveals that early solutions are getting more elusive. According to the Global Peace Index (GPI) Report 2024, conditions that precede major conflicts are higher now than they have been since the end of the Second World War. This makes it all the more important that particularly the conflicts involving the highest escalation risks should end as early as possible.
According to the GPI Report, there are currently 56 active conflicts, the most since the end of Second World War, and with fewer conflicts being resolved, either militarily or through peace agreements.
The GPI Report also tells us that conflicts that ended through peace agreements fell from 23 per cent to four per cent over the same period. This is deeply worrying. If the possibility of peace agreements is decreasing so much, this only means prolonging of wars and conflicts and the resulting massive distress and destruction. Hence the way forward, particularly in the most high-risk and harmful conflicts like in Gaza and Ukraine is to make efforts for unconditional ceasefire, and once the fighting has stopped, then peaceful negotiations can continue even for prolonged periods if necessary to resolve all the differences.
Clearly there is much greater urgency of strengthening all forces of peace. The peace movement all over the world should be much stronger and there should be much greater continuity of its many–sided activities with the aim of strengthening peace and peace initiatives all the way from local to global.
Bharat Dogra is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include When the Two Streams Met, Planet in Peril, Protecting Earth for Children and A Day in 2071.
