Can the Two Biggest Ongoing Conflicts in the World Get Linked to Each Other, and with What Consequences?

At a time of very serious and increasing environmental problems calling for increasing international cooperation to resolve them, unfortunately the reverse is happening and there are about 56 ongoing conflicts in the world, the highest since World War 2.

Among these two conflicts there are two which are the biggest cause of concern today, both because of their immense destruction and high human costs as well as their very serious threat of escalation into wider and bigger wars.

The first of these, the Ukraine-Russian war has continued for nearly 32 months without showing signs of ending soon. One recent escalation has been provided by Ukraine’s Kursk offensive. However fears have been frequently expressed regarding a much bigger escalation which can involve a direct confrontation between Russia and the USA/NATO and the use of nuclear weapons as well in certain conditions.

The second war which has continued for over 10 months is mainly centered on Israel’s assault on Gaza but has already experienced extended conflict, with certain self-restraints, involving about four additional countries already and possibilities of its escalation into an even wider conflict have been widely discussed in recent times, including the possibilities of Iran and the USA being drawn into a wider war, perhaps unwillingly, under certain conditions.

Both these possibilities of escalation of these two wars are truly frightening and all possible efforts should be made to avoid this. In addition, since each continuing day of this warfare adds greatly to human distress as well as to the possibilities of escalation, the best option without any doubt is to entirely end both these wars, as early as possible.

Despite this being the best option and despite there being great urgency for peace, all possibilities including worst ones should also be discussed. Hence the possibilities of these two immensely destructive wars getting linked up in some way should also be discussed.

One possibility is that if the middle-east war becomes broader and Iran faces threat from the USA, then Russia may come to the help of Iran, perhaps in some limited way, not fighting on its side of course but providing crucial technological help. This can increase the risk of a more direct confrontation between the USA and Russia which already exists on the Ukraine front. This two-front risk of direct confrontation involving the two countries which between them have over 80 per cent of the world’s nuclear weapons is intolerably dangerous for the entire world, and should be avoided. The two front risk becomes all the more dangerous if what happens on one front can also aggravate the situation on the second front.

Secondly, there is also the risk of big power confrontation over Syria, possibly involving only proxies but possibly also becoming more direct. After all it is the strong intervention of Russia which had saved the Assad regime in Syria at a time when the USA was trying in so many ways for the removal of this regime. Syria has been close to the foes of Israel and so may become a target in any middle-east escalation.

In fact one thing that is common to both Netenyahu and Zelensky is that at some time or the other they have tried to drag the USA deeper and more directly into confronting their enemies as this served their interests in different ways.

Before concluding, the interesting and important role of Turkey in both these conflicts may be mentioned here as its role has been different from other NATO members. Turkey is the leading country which tried to secure peace between Russia and Ukraine at a very early stage of the war. This Istanbul Initiative almost appeared to have succeeded, till it was sabotaged by the USA and the UK, following Prime Minster Boris Johnson’s hurried visit to Ukraine to convince Zelensky to instead carry on the war. More recently, Turkey again acted differently from other NATO members to become the first NATO country to threaten to attack Israel, more or less, if it persisted in its excessive aggression in Gaza or towards Hezbollah. So Turkey’s role in the two conflicts would also be watched with interest, and this can be an important role.

The bigger issue, however, is that of the two conflicts getting linked in such ways that both are impacted adversely and aggravated, thereby making the overall situation even more dangerous. All efforts should be made to avoid this very high risk possibility.

Bharat Dogra is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Planet in Peril, Protecting Earth for Children, Earth without Borders and A Day in 2071.