Kejriwal’s Political Future: All Over?

Would it be fair to assume that defeat in Delhi Assembly Elections spells a total collapse of political future of Arvind Kejriwal and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)? There is no denying that AAP’s defeat in Delhi has shattered confidence (rather over-confidence) entertained by Kejriwal as well as his supporters and the expectations latter had about his political ambition. Kejriwal was not the only founder of this party, formed in 2012. Co-founders included Prashant Bhushan, Yogendra Yadav and a few others with Kejriwal as the chairperson. Perhaps, a trait displayed by Kejriwal through the past 15 years of the party’s existence is his failure to keep co-founders together. Over the years, majority of these chose to part company with Kejriwal. Irrespective of whatever be reasons and/or nature of differences entertained between them and Kejriwal for their parting company, this clearly doesn’t reflect well on potential as well as credibility of party founders to remain together for too long. Given that Kejriwal was and is the chairperson of AAP, from one angle he may be credited for being responsible for the party having come so far in such a short period. From another angle, he may also be held responsible for the party and its leaders having failed to hold people’s as well as its supporters’ and members’ confidence at various levels for a reasonable period. 

It would, however, too early to view failure of Kejriwal to win Delhi elections as the end of his and AAP’s stay in politics. 

Undeniably, at present, he has limited options. The party which dominated Delhi Assembly for around 10 years, now, doesn’t have strength of being a strong opposition party. Yes, with former Chief Minister Atishi having succeeded in making it to the Assembly, to a degree, the party can make its presence felt. The Assembly may attract ample media coverage as well as people’s attention if Atishi takes over as Leader of Opposition and does succeed fairly aggressively in making herself heard. If this happens, Kejriwal may find himself on politically weaker turf. He will certainly feel uncomfortable if he sees Atishi being more often and in greater media spotlight that he’d prefer being directed at himself. 

Prospects of Kejriwal gaining limelight within India-bloc also appear weak. The anti-Rahul/Congress strategy exercised by him and made lot of noise about, at one time, appeared to have convinced a few India-bloc leaders about his moving on the right track. These hardly hesitated in announcing their support for him. If Kejriwal takes the risk of repeating similar moves again, prospects of his receiving the same support as he did earlier may be viewed as minimal. Besides, with new government having pronounced its anti-corruption approach to the extent of saying that Kejriwal will be spending most of his time in jail, he and a few other AAP leaders, including Manish Sisodia have a hard political battle ahead. One, where they are least likely to receive much support. The manner in which several AAP members have changed political camps in recent past is perhaps a mild indicator of the reality that the party’s as well as Kejriwal’s defeat may further contribute to weakening of this party.

But this doesn’t mean that the political game is totally over for AAP and Kejriwal. At least, the latter doesn’t want to think along this line. Nevertheless, for the time being, politically it would be wise of Kejriwal to keep a low profile. Electoral cards exercised by him over the past decade displayed his inclination to test his and AAP’s political strength in assembly polls of quite a few states. After Delhi, AAP’s major success was winning Punjab Assembly elections. When AAP held command of Delhi and Punjab states simultaneously, apparently, Kejriwal became overconfident about his political appeal. However, this success was not repeated in Haryana and has been deflated in Delhi polls. He probably needs to focus on regaining trust and confidence at three levels:– one is within his own party, second is that of India-bloc leaders and third of voters. The BJP’s drive against him may make this a hard and steep climb for him. Clearly, BJP is no mood to see him and his party emerge as a strong rival in Delhi and other states. AAP certainly doesn’t have the political appeal or even image at present to gain seats solely on its own strength. It would probably be more sensible of AAP leaders to give greater importance to increasing a political understanding with other parties (national and regional) as well as India-bloc members regarding seat-sharing at various levels. AAP’s decision to go solo has proved costly for its political strength and its relations with other anti-BJP parties, including India-bloc members. 

India is home to numerous parties, a large number of which are in the field to spell division of votes. Now, it is to be watched, whether AAP has also been reduced to this level? Of course, it’s in command in Punjab but questions have begun being posed on whether it will complete its term there or not? Against all these odds, Atishi can perhaps play a major role for AAP by asserting party’s presence in the Assembly. If she continues to act as a pawn/puppet for Kejriwal, well, the party’s significance may remain limited to just his own voice!

Nilofar Suhrawardy is a senior journalist and writer with specialization in communication studies and nuclear diplomacy. She has come out with several books. These include:– Modi’s Victory, A Lesson for the Congress…? (2019); Arab Spring, Not Just a Mirage! (2019), Image and Substance, Modi’s First Year in Office (2015) and Ayodhya Without the Communal Stamp, In the Name of Indian Secularism (2006).