The election of a new Pope always sets in motion a series of ancient traditions and high-stakes political manoeuvres within the Catholic Church. Two-thirds of the 135 cardinals now readying to gather in that conclave were selected by Francis. In contrast to what seems serene and sedate, there are powerful dynamics at play. These include theological differentiations, political perspectives, challenges of keeping the church up-to-date with contemporary global realities. The global church cannot live in the past, or maintain the status quo believing it is too powerful to be shaken. Even the most powerful of institutions can be shaken” highlights the inherent vulnerability of all institutions, no matter how strong or long-standing, to change, disruption, or even collapse. This vulnerability stems from various factors, including external pressures like economic downturns or social unrest, as well as internal challenges like corruption or lack of adaptation to changing circumstances. The ancient belief that the church is safe in its own planet has been turned upside-down in a world as secular forces assert their growing dominance and spirituality, itself, takes a back seat.
While the struggle (literally) for succession unfolds in Rome and Vatican City, the outcome holds notable implications for the Catholic community across the world. The death of a Pope marks the initiation of a carefully curated process which concludes in significant implications for the global Catholic community. The character of the church will be defined by who gets to be elected and, more importantly, the political dynamics which lead to the conclusion.
Pope Francis was a transformative figure who invigorated the hopes of millions of Catholics after decades of scandal, stagnation and increasing social irrelevancy for the global church. In his recent Easter message this year, he was, as always, radical in his hopes for a just world. He mourned how the world had developed a great ‘thirst for death, for killing and violence we see within families, directed at women and children’. He condemned the contempt often directed towards the vulnerable, the marginalised, and migrants! The Pope expressed his strong aspiration that the Catholic church would strive to revive our trust in others, including those who are different than ourselves, or who come from distant lands, bringing unfamiliar customs, ways of life and ideas! For, as he always affirmed, “all of us are children of God”!
His spirituality transcended the traditional and conservative approach of the average parish and other ecclesiastical bodies in significant ways by prioritizing human rights, and a humanitarianism approach to people in time of human suffering be it war, famine, migrants, the poor, women, and children. There is a very profound narrative that describes the Pope and his humanness. The story is about a young boy named Emanuele who asked Pope Francis if his atheist father was in heaven, and Pope Francis listened with compassion and offered encouragement. The boy was visibly shaken as he asked the question, and Pope Francis patiently guided him to whisper it in his ear. This interaction highlighted Pope Francis’s openness to dialogue and his commitment to reaching out to those who may have different beliefs.
Within months of assuming the papacy, it was clear this new pope also intended to be a church reformer. He called for a global gathering of Catholic bishops, known as a synod, to discuss contentious family life issues, including divorce and remarriage and ministry to LGBTQ people. Asked by journalists about rumours of a gay priest working at the Vatican, he responded to the Vatican News outlet: “Who am I to judge?” He would later demonstrate that he meant more than mere words when he parted with social taboos. He appointed the Vatican’s first-ever high-level commissions to respond to clergy sexual abuse and to consider the possibility of women serving in ordained Catholic ministry. He was breaking milestones all the time.
He disappointed those who wanted women to have a more prominent role and increased power in the church. He dragged his feet on elevating the status of women in the Catholic church. * Formalizing Lay Ministries: He officially opened the roles of lector and acolyte to women, which were previously reserved for men. He also created the official lay ministry of catechist, a role often filled by women. He stressed the importance of having more women study and teach theology, believing their perspectives are vital for a deeper understanding of the Church. He consistently advocated the essential role of women in the Church and society, highlighting their unique contributions of “tenderness and compassion” in a world marked by conflict. He has affirmed that “the Church is herself a woman.” Pope Francis frequently spoke out against what he terms “gender ideology,” viewing it as a danger that “erases differences” between men and women.
At the political level, Pope Francis was an advocate of peace and held on to a no-war conviction. During Easter, he expressed his closeness to the sufferings of Christians in Palestine and Israel, and to all the Israeli people and the Palestinian people. The growing climate of anti-Semitism throughout the world was worrisome to him. He expressed his strong conviction that the people of Gaza, and its Christian community in particular, where the terrible conflict continues to cause death and destruction and to create a dramatic and deplorable humanitarian situation must see relief from suffering. In fact, he prayed for the people until his very last moment – praying for them every night at thew height of his illness. In fact, his prayers for Gaza extended to the whole of the region and urged prayers for Christian communities in Lebanon and in Syria, presently experiencing a delicate transition in its history. The Middle East was a region that concerned him deeply and he urged the whole Church to keep the Christians of the beloved Middle East in its thoughts and prayers. He also expressed anxiety for the people of Yemen, who, he said, “are experiencing one of the world’s most serious and prolonged humanitarian crises because of war, and I invite all to find solutions through a constructive dialogue”. Anywhere, he saw and heard about devastation from war, prompted his intervention. He called for peace in Ukraine as his Easter gift of peace, and called on all parties to work towards achieving a just and lasting peace. The list is long but Pope Francis remembered them all: The South Caucasus where he wished for a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan and lead to long-awaited reconciliation in the region. In the western Balkans he urged political leaders to allay tensions and crises, and, together with their partner countries in the region, to reject dangerous and destabilising actions.
The oft-forgotten wars in Africa, especially in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, in Sudan and South Sudan, the Horn of Africa and the Great Lakes region concerned him as much as the denial of the right to worship Sahel, as well as those Christians who in many places are not able freely to profess their faith.
He asserted that “here can be no peace without freedom of religion, freedom of thought, freedom of expression and respect for the views of others…Nor is peace possible without true disarmament! The requirement that every people provide for its own defence must not turn into a race to rearmament. The Pope deemed the announcement of a ceasefire by various actors in the country in the whole of Myanmar. He called war “the logic of fear which only leads to isolation from others, but rather to use the resources available to help the needy, to fight hunger and to encourage initiatives that promote development. These are the ‘weapons’ of peace: weapons that build the future, instead of sowing seeds of death!
If this was his legacy, it now remains to be seen how the various factions in the “College of Cardinals” will push forward their agendas. There are at least seven categories within the College of Cardinals.
The Conservatives led mainly by Gerhard Müller and Raymond Burke, emphasizes traditional Catholic teachings and doctrine, while the Progressives Cardinals like Walter Kasper and Reinhard Marx advocate for a more inclusive and flexible approach to Catholicism. A third
Section are the Moderates, a faction that seeks balance between conservative and progressive views, with cardinals like Christoph Schönborn and Luis Antonio Tagle.
Cardinals from different regions also have their distinct concerns and priorities. European Cardinals focus on issues like secularism, immigration, and the Church’s role in European society. American Cardinals Emphasize the importance of social justice, poverty reduction, and the Church’s response to the clergy abuse crisis. And, African and Asian Cardinals highlight the needs of the Church in the Global South, including poverty, education, and healthcare.
The historical dominance of Western (primarily European) cardinals in electing Popes is being increasingly challenged by the growing influence and number of cardinals from other parts of the world, particularly Asia and Africa. These regions are likely to put up a tough fight for leadership:
The Catholic Church is experiencing significant growth in Asia and Africa, while numbers are relatively stagnant or declining in many Western countries. This demographic shift naturally leads to a desire for the leadership to reflect the global face of the Church. As one article states, these are seen as the “future of the church.” Pope Francis has intentionally appointed more cardinals from Asia and Africa, as well as Latin America, who are eligible to vote in the conclave. This increase in voting power gives these regions a stronger voice in the selection process. Some reports indicate that under Francis, voting-age cardinals from the Asia-Pacific region increased by 10%, and those from Sub-Saharan Africa went up by 8%, while Europe’s share decreased.
There’s a strong sentiment in many non-Western parts of the world that it’s time for the papacy to move beyond its historical European roots. Electing a Pope from Asia or Africa would be a powerful symbol of the Church’s universality and its embrace of diverse cultures. As one expert noted, the election of an Archbishop from Asia or Africa is now a “real probability” and “not unthinkable at all. “Pope Francis’s moves have inadvertently fostered new power centers in developing economies with large Catholic populations. Bishops’ conferences in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are increasingly influential and are able to communicate and potentially form blocs to support their candidates.
Challenges and Counterarguments:
The Vatican and its leadership structures have been deeply entrenched in Western traditions for centuries. Over 200 of the 266 Popes have been European, with a significant number being Italian. Overcoming this historical inertia will be a significant hurdle. While there’s a desire for representation, cardinals from Asia and Africa may not necessarily form a unified bloc. Regional differences, theological perspectives, and personal loyalties could lead to a fragmented vote. Despite the growing numbers from other regions, Western cardinals still hold a significant portion of the voting power and have deep connections within the Vatican bureaucracy. They may favour a candidate who aligns with more traditional Western perspectives or someone they know well. These dynamics will influence the papal election, as cardinals weigh the qualifications and visions of potential candidates.
While regional representation is a factor, the primary concern for many cardinals will be electing a capable leader who can effectively guide the Church through its current challenges. This could lead them to support a strong candidate from any region.
Several names from Asia and Africa have been mentioned as potential contenders, signalling the seriousness of these regions in the discussion:
Cardinal Luis Tagle (Philippines) often referred to as the “Asian Francis,” is seen as a charismatic figure who could appeal to a broad range of cardinals.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (Democratic Republic of Congo) who is a prominent and outspoken leader from a region with a rapidly growing Catholic population makes a strong candidate too. From Ghana, Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana), although older, has been a respected voice in the Church for many years and was considered a potential candidate in the past.
In conclusion, while the historical dominance of Western cardinals cannot be discounted, the demographic shifts within the Catholic Church and the increasing number of cardinals from Asia and Africa make it highly likely that these regions will mount a significant challenge for the papacy in the next conclave. The outcome will depend on a complex interplay of factors, including regional representation, theological alignment, and the perceived leadership qualities of the candidates.
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In the final analysis, it cannot be overstated that the Catholic church is challenged to become universalised. It must let go off the western models of governance and Pope Francis showed the way with his daring and incisive approached to mission.
Ranjan Solomon is a political commentator
