Iran’s retaliation to Israel’s invasion entails the following:
1) That the era of strategic patience is over in Iranian diplomacy.
2) Direct confrontation between Iran and Israel has effectively downgraded the strategic significance of the Axis of resistance as a strategic defence between Iran and Israel.
3) However, this direct confrontation will provide reprieve from Isreali attacks thus allowing Ansar Allah, Hezbollah and Hamas to replenish and regroup.
4) The tit for tat escalation between Iran and Israel has now led to targeting of Iranian oil and gas facilities by Isreal. This may result in Iran choking west Asian supply of oil and gas through the gulf of Hormuz. The economic jolt to Europe and US will be significant.
5) Conflagration in West Asia will advantage Russia and China economically and strategically.
6) Supply of arms to Ukraine will dry up and the cost and demand of Russian oil and gas will increase thereby crippling the sanctions on Russia.
7) With increased US engagement in West Asia it’s pressure in South China sea will be reduced and it’s bargaining capacity in trade negotiations with China will be compromised.
8) Thus the material foundation for Russian and Chinese support for Iran.
Israel wanted a forever war now it has got it. ” Be careful of what you wish for, lest it come true.”
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Kumar Sanjay Singh, Associate Professor, Department of History, Swami Shraddhanand College, Delhi.
