BJP lost its base among OBCs in the general elections, observes Prof N Sukumar 

N Sukumar 1
Prof N Sukumar

Professor N. Sukumar teaches Political Science at Delhi University.  Prof N Sukumar teaches Political Science at Delhi University, his area of interests are Ambedkar and Anti-Caste studies, Indian Politis and Indian Political Thought. His works revolves around Social Exclusion Human rights and Higher Education. He led many national and international research projects on caste, higher education and poverty. He is part of many bodies in different state and central universities across the country in different capacities. He has attended and presented papers in several International and National seminars. He is a visiting fellow at Indian Institute of Dalit Studies, Governing body member of Indian Social Institute, Delhi.  He published three books on Indian Politics, Caste discrimination in Indian Universities and on Caste studies. Currently he is engaged with a book on Citizenship in the context of Caste. He has many research articles published in Journals and Books. He is also part of two different sub-committees in the Government of Karnataka State Higher Education Commission i.e., Discrimination in multiple contexts and Constitutional Values and Civic Education. He is a Political and Social Activist and affiliated with Bharat Jodo Abhiyan which is a Civil Society organization based in Delhi.

In an exclusive interview with Abhish K. Bose he analyses the outcome of the 2024 general elections. 

Excerpts from the interview 

Abhish K. Bose  : What is the message of the 2024 general elections as a whole ?  Has the elections destroyed the infallibility of the hindutvas foothold in the hindi heartlands including Uttar Pradesh?  

N Sukumar  – The verdict is sound and clear. The people of India rejected Modi and undemocratic rule. Restoration of Democracy and constitution became the priority of the people when they voted against BJP. No party got an absolute majority therefore it can be considered as a loss for BJP and a moral victory for the INDIA alliance. We can not see this victory as an end to Hindutva forces. Hindutva is an ideology of the RSS and will remain till the RSS remains active. But loosing Ayodhya and many other sacred places in UP rattled the BJP led RSS forces. Modi trampled over the houses, temples and many other historical places to build the grand Ram temple. All the communities in Ayodhya defeated Modi. Religion will remain and people will be attached to it but jobs, employment and food security is also important.

Abhish K. Bose  : Could you explain the role the proposed caste census and the subsequent impact that offer had exerted in the general elections in states such as Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh? How far the promise of the equality offered by the caste census elicited votes in favour of the India alliance? 

N Sukumar – For the first time in electoral politics Social Justice became a major agenda. Caste Census is a long time pending to asses the due share of the marginalized communities who are extending their sweat and blood towards nation building. Congress under Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi’s leadership with the advice of civil society groups brought the issue into the limelight. The BJP was not very happy as the numerical strength of the BCs, SCs and STs will make them claim their due share. People at large will understand how our society and economy rests on a upside down pyramid. INDIA alliance came into consensus on the issue. Caste census conducted in Bihar brought out the fact that 88 percent of the poor are from SC, ST and BC and other marginal groups. The caste census has been considered as the first step towards justice and equality by distributing resources according to their population.

Abhish K. Bose  : The peoples verdict though is anti BJP has favoured the India alliance.  What should be the vital areas that the Congress party should focus in the coming years?   

N Sukumar  – The peoples’ verdict went against BJP as they ignored certain fundamental issues- growing unemployment, inflation, lopsided development that helped the corporate companies like Ambani and Adani etc, waving off loans in favor of MNC’s, Electoral Bonds, privatization of public sectors like railways, airways, banking, ports, education, health, industry etc. ‘Sab ke Saat Sab Ka Vikas’ remained just a political slogan of Modi. The Congress should focus on implementing the Constitution that addresses all the problems in the country. Its manifesto is the best document to ensure socio economic justice. With new leadership, Congress needs to rebuild India by promoting agriculture, public industries, development with growth, education, health and employment. 

Abhish K.  Bose   : Is the mobilisation held in Ayodhya as part of the Pran Prathishta of ram temple has not benefitted BJP?  How can you explain the rationale of the Samajwadhi Party candidate winning in Faisabad constituency against the BJP candidate at the very orbit of the Hindutva mobilisation? 

N Sukumar – The entire Ayodhya movement fetched electoral dividends for the BJP since the nineties. The mobilization in the name of Hindutva helped to paper over social divisions in the Hindi heartland. The pranpratishtha of the Ram temple on January 22nd, 2024, was planned to reap political benefits despite the temple being incomplete and against the advice of all the seers. Modi took over the role of the high priest while conducting religious rituals amongst a vast gathering of business tycoons, media and film celebrities etc. After the SP candidate who happened to be a Dalit won the Ayodhya seat, it was gradually revealed that the ordinary folks were upset with their houses being torn down, temples and mosques being bulldozed to make wider roads towards the Ram temple, in short, a complete mayhem at the expense of the ordinary people. Videos shared by independent media houses revealed the misery of the people forced to live amidst broken homes and shops without any proper compensation. The land was being sold off to outsiders and their livelihood options were getting scarce. They were fighting for survival and swanky shopping malls and a new airport could not placate them. They rejected the autocratic state and its political pundits through their voting right.

Abhish K. Bose  : By analysing the voting patterns of the religious  minorities how far do you think that a consolidation of their votes happened against the NDA alliance?  

N Sukumar  – One of the prominent slogans of the BJP was ‘abki baar, 400 paar’ (this time, we will cross 400) Such a brutal majority will enable them to change the constitution and the rights guaranteed to the Dalits, tribals and minorities. This created a silent furore and added to the existing anxieties over CAA-NRC, food practices, intimate relationships, rising Islamophobia. The election speeches of various BJP leaders including PM Modi vitiated the atmosphere further. Anybody who protested against any policy was labelled anti-national.  For the first time in the history of electoral politics these communities massively voted against the hate that was perpetuated against them. They were better organized at booth levels with the help of INDIA alliance party cadres. Their consolidation and solidarity happened at multiple levels from campaign to booth management and increasing their voting percentage. It was like a life and death question to protect their community and constitutional interests. They had their own strategies to defeat BJP across the country. 

Abhish K Bose  – If people in Uttar Pradesh felt horrified about the Modi regime and voted against it, how come the outrage is missing in the neighboring Bihar?

N Sukumar   –  Every state will have different issues. Some issues are nation centric; some are state centric some are region and constituency/local based. The process of social engineering is also different. In Uttar Pradesh, Akhilesh Yadav broadened his party base by including Dalits, backward (other than Yadavs) and tribals. The ticket distribution strategically reflected this change. He went beyond the Muslim-Yadav combination. In Bihar, Nitish Kumar consolidated the non-Yadav communities, Chirag Paswan and Jitin Manjhi took over the lion’s share of the Dalit votes. Though Tejasvi Yadav put up a tough fight so much so that all the BJP stalwarts, Modi, Amit Shah, J.P. Nadda and Rajnath Singh went for campaigns in Bihar. Tejasvi Yadav gained a good vote percentage but was not able to convert it into seats. Apart from the Yadav and Muslim communities, RJD was not able to get the other non OBC and EBC communities into their party fold. He should have been more strategic in candidate selection based on certain equations like winnability, caste and sub-caste equations as followed by Akhilesh Yadav in UP. The best example is a dalit SP candidate winning on a general seat in Ayodhya.

Abhish K. Bose   : If elections were held with ballot papers will there be any palpable change in the results? How far the electronic voting machines are reliable?      

N Sukumar  – There are multiple instances that EVMS were introduced and withdrawn in many countries due to the possibility of tampering. In India also, there are reports on how candidates got more votes than the actual number of registered voters. The BJP was pushing for one nation- one election which increased suspicion over EVM functioning. However, if majority of people think about going back to ballet paper that needs to be taken seriously by the Election Commission. 

Abhish K. Bose  :  In the 2009 general elections BJP captured 22 percent of the OBC votes, in 2014 they amassed 30 percent of the OBC votes, and in 2024 elections whether the Congress were able to stem the flow of OBC votes to the BJP camp  by its campaign for social justice for the backward communities.   What is your reading? 

N Sukumar  –  BJP in 2024 elections is losing its base among OBC communities. At some places they gained and at few places they are losing. The matrix changes from one state to another. In Gujarat and Telangana they gained but lost in Bihar and UP. Similarly, they did not have much impact of gaining BC vote bank in Tamilnadu. The Congress through its ‘Nyay Patra’ has raised hopes amongst the OBCs that their demands will be addressed. We need to see how the caste census will unfold and impact the social, economic and political scenario. 


Abhish K. Bose  : You are an academician involved in the civil society activities. Is there a civil society in a country as diverse as India, when most of the individuals are politically or communally aligned?      

N Sukumar  –  My academics and activism go together. From my student days I have been part of Dalit Bahujan student politics. This has also helped me in the classroom to be more empathetic and responsive towards my students who comprise a diverse population, especially from the Hindi heartland. At present, I am part of a civil society organization ‘Bharat Jodo Abhiyan’ to work towards the society based on the constitutional values. Particularly in 2024 elections many civil society organisations like BJA worked across the country. It was because many people felt the need to counter the increasing attacks on democratic values, individual liberty and work for social justice. Many political parties realized the contribution of CSO’s in the electoral politics. As Aristotle said, every individual is a political animal. People may align to different ideologies. But a constructive, meaningful, democratic and egalitarian ethos needs to be part of politics. The politics taught in the classroom is different from the actual working of politics in society. There needs to be a connection between the classroom and the real world of politics. Only this will make politics more meaningful in Democracy.

There is much to learn the politics I teach and I see in the grassroots are completely different and I strongly feel to retheorize to create a politically active society in India.

Abhish K Bose is a journalist with more than fifteen of years of experience Abhish K Bose was a staffer at The Times of India and The Deccan Chronicle – Asian Age. As a contributor, his interviews or articles have been published in Frontline magazine, The Wire, The Print, The Telegraph, The Federal, The News Minute, Scroll, The Kochi Post, Madhyamam Weekly, Andolana, Countercurrents.org and the Asian Lite international published out of Manchester. ) 

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