Articles by: Dr Arun Kumar

Analyzing the Union Budget 2023-24 to Unravel its Underlying Strategy 

Analyzing the Union Budget 2023-24 to Unravel its Underlying Strategy 

Introduction Any budget is complex consisting of many things of varying importance. Often, people focus on things of their direct interest but miss the wider implications that affect them indirectly and may undo any benefit they may get directly. Thus, it is not only important to look at the trees but also the forest. So, it is important to analyse[Read More…]

by 18/02/2023 Comments are Disabled India
Electoral Bonds No Solution To Illegal Political-Funding

Electoral Bonds No Solution To Illegal Political-Funding

 How do donations via electoral bonds funded by legal or illegal money help curb undue influence on policy makers? Electoral bonds provide an additional of such funds. The Union Government initiated the Electoral Bonds scheme, which was announced in the Union Budget 2017–18, on January 2, 2018. The aim was “to cleanse the system of political funding in the country”. While many other issues are also germane,[Read More…]

by 18/02/2023 Comments are Disabled India
Democracy not synonymous with `reasonable nexus’ or `good intentions’

Democracy not synonymous with `reasonable nexus’ or `good intentions’

A flawed process led to erroneous policy which is counterproductive and which resulted in not only damage to democracy but to huge adverse impact on the public, especially the poor. The process by which a policy is arrived at, also determines the outcomes. Can it then be said that the process was legal, even if formally, so the achievement of[Read More…]

by 16/02/2023 Comments are Disabled India
Marginalized Indian rural economy: Its challenges

Marginalized Indian rural economy: Its challenges

This marginalization of the rural economy is a result of the policymakers’ focus being on the organized part — the modern part of the economy. Modernization of the economy has been taken to be the copying of western modernity. India has not attempted its own modernity suited to the needs of the vast majority living in rural areas. No wonder[Read More…]

by 15/02/2023 Comments are Disabled India
RBI affidavit on demonetisation obfuscates rather than clarifying

RBI affidavit on demonetisation obfuscates rather than clarifying

Demonetisation is an example of a needless policy which failed because of lack of consultation and inadequate understanding of the issues. It led to a policy-induced crisis that deeply impacted the nation: all because democracy was not allowed its full play. In a vibrant democracy, critique of policy a) makes for a) better policies, and b) helps correct mistakes as[Read More…]

by 29/12/2022 Comments are Disabled India
This path of development is toxic

This path of development is toxic

There are many discussions going on regarding pollution. But the one aspect that is being overlooked in all these debates is our development model. It has a major contribution in increasing pollution. It considers material development as the measure of human development. This model, which is about 150-200 years old, emphasizes maximising production, so that people’s income increases and they[Read More…]

by 19/12/2021 Comments are Disabled Counter Solutions
Academic Autonomy: Needed a Holistic Societal Perspective

Academic Autonomy: Needed a Holistic Societal Perspective

 If a university privately funded by philanthropists can be forced to fall in line, even if due to implicit pressure from the ruling dispensation, it can be inferred that autonomy in institutions funded by businessmen is literally non-existent. The institutions run with direct government funding have had little autonomy. The publicly funded universities can offer greater protection to academics but[Read More…]

by 30/04/2021 Comments are Disabled India
Is the economic impact of the lockdown over?

Is the economic impact of the lockdown over?

The centre’s estimates are flawed and give the impression that the economy has not only weathered Covid-19 but overcome pre-existing difficulties. But in reality, demand is short, dampening economic revival. Officially, the “growth in GDP during 2020-21 is estimated at  -8.0 percent as compared to 4.0 percent in 2019-20”. Further, “GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q3 of 2020-21 is[Read More…]

by 28/03/2021 Comments are Disabled India
Illustration by Dominic Xavier : Courtesy : Rediff. Com

Once in a Century Budget: Statement of Fact or Hope?

In December 2020, talking at a CII meet, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman reportedly stated: “100 years of India wouldn’t have seen a budget being made post-pandemic like this”. The budget to be presented on February 1, 2021 will indeed be a once a century budget, since never before has the GDP and revenue collection fallen so steeply. Never before have[Read More…]

by 01/02/2021 1 comment India
Quality in Higher Education, Role of Teachers and Challenge of Technology

Quality in Higher Education, Role of Teachers and Challenge of Technology

Published as Introduction in Chowdhury A. and Alok John (Ed.). Excellence in Higher Education: Emerging Concerns and the Road Ahead. N Delhi: Rajesh Publications. 2020. Introduction Policy makers in India have constantly strived to provide greater access to high quality education to youth. This has been the endeavour since independence70 years ago.This is also crucial for the demographic dividend that[Read More…]

by 13/12/2020 Comments are Disabled India
On the GST issue, the Centre holds the baton

On the GST issue, the Centre holds the baton

A large borrowing programme is inevitable; data and economic uncertainties show that States cannot handle the matter. Clearly, the Centre is reneging on its promise to the States. The implication is that the States are on their own — cooperative federalism is a casualty. The Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council meeting has now been deferred to the first week[Read More…]

by 22/09/2020 Comments are Disabled India
Arun Kumar, Economist and author

Economy May Not Recover Back to Where It was in January 2020: Prof. Arun Kumar

Interview with Prof. Arun Kumar by Mohd. Nuashad Khan       What’s your take on the free fall of the GDP? Is it because of the pandemic or something else? I am surprised that the decline in GDP in Q1 is given as 23.9 per cent. It should have been much more because the unorganised sector which is 45 per cent[Read More…]

by 21/09/2020 Comments are Disabled India
Predicting the Indian Economy’s Rate of Growth in 2020-21

Predicting the Indian Economy’s Rate of Growth in 2020-21

  What will Indian Economy’s rate of growth be in 2020-21 given the present lockdown? Evidence of a stalled economy are all around –unemployed workers, closed shops, factories and offices, empty roads, etc. Only essential goods are being produced and that too with some difficulty due to supply chain bottlenecks. Agriculture can function but there too, operations have been hampered[Read More…]

by 07/06/2020 1 comment India
A police officer stands guard in front of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) head office in Mumbai April 17, 2012. The Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates on Tuesday for the first time in three years by an unexpectedly sharp 50 basis points to give a boost to flagging economic growth but warned that there is limited scope for further rate cuts. REUTERS/Vivek Prakash (INDIA - Tags: BUSINESS)

Lockdown, Printing Notes & Demand

When the lockdown is lifted, a package of interest waiver and deferring of loan repayment for businesses will be needed for them to restart. The RBI and the government will need to rethink their strategy since money by itself is not a resource. The lockdown is slowly being lifted. Still, most businesses, except those producing essentials, are not able to[Read More…]

by 06/06/2020 Comments are Disabled India
Covid-19 : Dilemma before the policymakers

Covid-19 : Dilemma before the policymakers

After the pandemic, a rethink on the way our society is can be undertaken but currently the focus has to be on survival. Reproduced  below, in summary, the salient points Kumar makes which should be Must Reading for policymakers: In India, the human cost of a misadventure will be enormous. Migrant workers travelling in a truck in Patna, to get[Read More…]

by 18/05/2020 Comments are Disabled India
COVID-19 Crisis: Understanding the State of Economy during and after the Lockdown

COVID-19 Crisis: Understanding the State of Economy during and after the Lockdown

Nothing could have brought the global economy to a grinding halt like the COVID-19 pandemic in recent history. Barring essential goods, the production, sale, and consumption of all goods and services have been affected. This article offers a low-down on the stalled economy, and also makes projections for India’s post-pandemic economy. At the time of writing this article, the Government[Read More…]

by 17/05/2020 Comments are Disabled India
Economy in India: Looming Catastrophe

Economy in India: Looming Catastrophe

  An already slowing economy has been dealt a body blow by the pandemic as production and employment are hit, severely affecting the unorganised sector which employs 94 percent of the workforce. On March 24, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a complete lockdown for three weeks for 1.3 billion Indians. All hell broke loose for unorganised sector workers and in[Read More…]

by 12/04/2020 Comments are Disabled India
Impact of Covid-19 and What Needs To Be Done?

Impact of Covid-19 and What Needs To Be Done?

  This situation implies that the global economy is staring at a depression. In brief, the situation is worse than a war since demand has collapsed. The spread of Covid19 has rapidly spun out of control the world over and needs to be tackled urgently. Though the problem is global there are national specificities that require nuanced approaches. There are[Read More…]

by 30/03/2020 Comments are Disabled World
Covid-19 Pandemic: What About Those Not Hitting Headlines ?

Covid-19 Pandemic: What About Those Not Hitting Headlines ?

  ( Please note the article was written on March16, 2020,  before the government and RBI announced some reliefs, many of them for specified periods. It can  not be anticipated for how long the pandemic and the crisis would continue. Still the comment is relevant given India’s ground realities, well known leakages,  pilferage of relief funds etc.) Share market going[Read More…]

by 29/03/2020 Comments are Disabled India
Coronavirus: Economic uncertainty rises

Coronavirus: Economic uncertainty rises

  Supply shocks from China have caused a fall in production and decline in demand, leading to fears of recession. Stock markets globally have declined since the big drop this ‘Manic Monday’. They are reacting to the expected slowdown in the world economy due to the rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus to more than 100 countries. Crude oil prices[Read More…]

by 19/03/2020 Comments are Disabled World
Union Budget 2020-21: Figuring out its Politics and Economics

Union Budget 2020-21: Figuring out its Politics and Economics

The Union Budget has two goals. First, to tackle the current problems plaguing the economy which may be a continuing one or one that has cropped up in the year in which the Budget is drafted. The second goal of a Budget is to try to fulfill the vision that the government puts out. This again could be pertaining to[Read More…]

by 16/02/2020 Comments are Disabled India
Demonetisation: Assessment Of Its Impact

Demonetisation: Assessment Of Its Impact

Three years after demonetisation was launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on November 8, 2016, people still remember it as the beginning of a very difficult period. Many have come to accept what I have been saying that the economic downturn in India began then and now the official rate of growth has come down to below five per cent.[Read More…]

by 18/12/2019 2 comments India
Demonetisation: Recessionary Conditions Take Hold

Demonetisation: Recessionary Conditions Take Hold

Demonetization is all about currency and the amount of money with the public. Since the public has no interface with the Reserve Bank of India, they have to deal with the banks for their daily requirements of money. Consequently, demonetization has had a dramatic impact on banks in India and this is likely to persist. Banks and the Public Ire[Read More…]

by 19/12/2016 1 comment India
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