Articles by: Dr Arun Kumar

On the GST issue, the Centre holds the baton

On the GST issue, the Centre holds the baton

A large borrowing programme is inevitable; data and economic uncertainties show that States cannot handle the matter. Clearly, the Centre is reneging on its promise to the States. The implication is that the States are on their own — cooperative federalism is a casualty. The Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council meeting has now been deferred to the first week[Read More…]

by September 22, 2020 India
Arun Kumar, Economist and author

Economy May Not Recover Back to Where It was in January 2020: Prof. Arun Kumar

Interview with Prof. Arun Kumar by Mohd. Nuashad Khan       What’s your take on the free fall of the GDP? Is it because of the pandemic or something else? I am surprised that the decline in GDP in Q1 is given as 23.9 per cent. It should have been much more because the unorganised sector which is 45 per cent[Read More…]

by September 21, 2020 India
Predicting the Indian Economy’s Rate of Growth in 2020-21

Predicting the Indian Economy’s Rate of Growth in 2020-21

  What will Indian Economy’s rate of growth be in 2020-21 given the present lockdown? Evidence of a stalled economy are all around –unemployed workers, closed shops, factories and offices, empty roads, etc. Only essential goods are being produced and that too with some difficulty due to supply chain bottlenecks. Agriculture can function but there too, operations have been hampered[Read More…]

by June 7, 2020 India
A police officer stands guard in front of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) head office in Mumbai April 17, 2012. The Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates on Tuesday for the first time in three years by an unexpectedly sharp 50 basis points to give a boost to flagging economic growth but warned that there is limited scope for further rate cuts. REUTERS/Vivek Prakash (INDIA - Tags: BUSINESS)

Lockdown, Printing Notes & Demand

When the lockdown is lifted, a package of interest waiver and deferring of loan repayment for businesses will be needed for them to restart. The RBI and the government will need to rethink their strategy since money by itself is not a resource. The lockdown is slowly being lifted. Still, most businesses, except those producing essentials, are not able to[Read More…]

by June 6, 2020 India
Covid-19 : Dilemma before the policymakers

Covid-19 : Dilemma before the policymakers

After the pandemic, a rethink on the way our society is can be undertaken but currently the focus has to be on survival. Reproduced  below, in summary, the salient points Kumar makes which should be Must Reading for policymakers: In India, the human cost of a misadventure will be enormous. Migrant workers travelling in a truck in Patna, to get[Read More…]

by May 18, 2020 India
COVID-19 Crisis: Understanding the State of Economy during and after the Lockdown

COVID-19 Crisis: Understanding the State of Economy during and after the Lockdown

Nothing could have brought the global economy to a grinding halt like the COVID-19 pandemic in recent history. Barring essential goods, the production, sale, and consumption of all goods and services have been affected. This article offers a low-down on the stalled economy, and also makes projections for India’s post-pandemic economy. At the time of writing this article, the Government[Read More…]

by May 17, 2020 India
Economy in India: Looming Catastrophe

Economy in India: Looming Catastrophe

  An already slowing economy has been dealt a body blow by the pandemic as production and employment are hit, severely affecting the unorganised sector which employs 94 percent of the workforce. On March 24, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a complete lockdown for three weeks for 1.3 billion Indians. All hell broke loose for unorganised sector workers and in[Read More…]

by April 12, 2020 India
Impact of Covid-19 and What Needs To Be Done?

Impact of Covid-19 and What Needs To Be Done?

  This situation implies that the global economy is staring at a depression. In brief, the situation is worse than a war since demand has collapsed. The spread of Covid19 has rapidly spun out of control the world over and needs to be tackled urgently. Though the problem is global there are national specificities that require nuanced approaches. There are[Read More…]

by March 30, 2020 World
Covid-19 Pandemic: What About Those Not Hitting Headlines ?

Covid-19 Pandemic: What About Those Not Hitting Headlines ?

  ( Please note the article was written on March16, 2020,  before the government and RBI announced some reliefs, many of them for specified periods. It can  not be anticipated for how long the pandemic and the crisis would continue. Still the comment is relevant given India’s ground realities, well known leakages,  pilferage of relief funds etc.) Share market going[Read More…]

by March 29, 2020 India
Coronavirus: Economic uncertainty rises

Coronavirus: Economic uncertainty rises

  Supply shocks from China have caused a fall in production and decline in demand, leading to fears of recession. Stock markets globally have declined since the big drop this ‘Manic Monday’. They are reacting to the expected slowdown in the world economy due to the rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus to more than 100 countries. Crude oil prices[Read More…]

by March 19, 2020 World
Union Budget 2020-21: Figuring out its Politics and Economics

Union Budget 2020-21: Figuring out its Politics and Economics

The Union Budget has two goals. First, to tackle the current problems plaguing the economy which may be a continuing one or one that has cropped up in the year in which the Budget is drafted. The second goal of a Budget is to try to fulfill the vision that the government puts out. This again could be pertaining to[Read More…]

by February 16, 2020 India
Demonetisation: Assessment Of Its Impact

Demonetisation: Assessment Of Its Impact

Three years after demonetisation was launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on November 8, 2016, people still remember it as the beginning of a very difficult period. Many have come to accept what I have been saying that the economic downturn in India began then and now the official rate of growth has come down to below five per cent.[Read More…]

by December 18, 2019 India
Demonetisation: Recessionary Conditions Take Hold

Demonetisation: Recessionary Conditions Take Hold

Demonetization is all about currency and the amount of money with the public. Since the public has no interface with the Reserve Bank of India, they have to deal with the banks for their daily requirements of money. Consequently, demonetization has had a dramatic impact on banks in India and this is likely to persist. Banks and the Public Ire[Read More…]

by December 19, 2016 India