Articles by: Gail Tverberg

Why Collapse Occurs; Why It May Not Be Far Away

Why Collapse Occurs; Why It May Not Be Far Away

Collapse is a frightening subject. The question of why collapse occurs is something I have pieced together over many years of study from a number of different sources, which I will attempt to explain in this post. Collapse doesn’t happen instantaneously; it happens many years after an economy first begins outgrowing its resource base. In fact, the resource base likely declines at[Read More…]

by 26/02/2021 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
Fossil Fuel Production Is Reaching Limits in a Strange Way

Fossil Fuel Production Is Reaching Limits in a Strange Way

Strangely enough, the limit we seem to be reaching with respect to fossil fuel extraction comes from low prices. At low prices, the extraction of oil, coal, and natural gas becomes unprofitable. Producers go bankrupt, or they voluntarily cut back production in an attempt to force prices higher. As the result of these forces, production tends to fall. This limit comes long[Read More…]

by 16/10/2020 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
We Need to Change Our COVID-19 Strategy

We Need to Change Our COVID-19 Strategy

We would like to think that we can eliminate COVID-19, but doing so is far from certain. The medical system has not been successful in eliminating HIV/AIDS or influenza; the situation with COVID-19 may be similar. We are discovering that people with COVID-19 are extremely hard to identify because a significant share of infections are very mild or completely without[Read More…]

by 11/08/2020 Comments are Disabled World
COVID-19 and oil at $1: Is there a way forward?

COVID-19 and oil at $1: Is there a way forward?

Many people are concerned today with the low price of oil. Others are concerned about slowing or stopping COVID-19. Is there any way forward? I gave a few hints regarding what is ahead in my last post, Economies won’t be able to recover after shutdowns. We live in a world with a self-organizing economy, made up of components such as businesses, customers,[Read More…]

by 21/04/2020 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
Economies won’t be able to recover after shutdowns

Economies won’t be able to recover after shutdowns

Citizens seem to be clamoring for shutdowns to prevent the spread of COVID-19. There is one major difficulty, however. Once an economy has been shut down, it is extremely difficult for the economy to recover back to the level it had reached previously. In fact, the longer the shutdown lasts, the more critical the problem is likely to be. China[Read More…]

by 01/04/2020 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
It Is Easy to Overreact to the Chinese Coronavirus

It Is Easy to Overreact to the Chinese Coronavirus

Recently, a new coronavirus has been causing many illnesses and deaths. The virus first became active in Wuhan, China, but it has already spread to the rest of China. Scattered cases have been identified around the rest of the world as well. There are two important questions that are already being encountered: How much of an attempt should be made[Read More…]

by 30/01/2020 Comments are Disabled World
Understanding Why the Green New Deal Won’t Really Work

Understanding Why the Green New Deal Won’t Really Work

The reasons why the Green New Deal won’t really work are fairly subtle. A person really has to look into the details to see what goes wrong. In this post, I try to explain at least a few of the issues involved. [1] None of the new renewables can easily be relied upon to produce enough energy in winter.  The[Read More…]

by 03/10/2019 3 comments Counter Solutions
Our Energy and Debt Predicament in 2019

Our Energy and Debt Predicament in 2019

Many people are concerned that we have an oil problem. Or they are concerned about recession and the need to lower interest rates. As I see the situation, we have a problem of a networked economy that is not functioning well. A big part of this problem is energy-related. Strange as it may seem, energy prices (including oil prices) are too[Read More…]

by 13/09/2019 1 comment Resource Crisis
Debunking ‘Lower Oil Supply Will Raise Prices’

Debunking ‘Lower Oil Supply Will Raise Prices’

We often hear the statement, “When oil supply is lower, oil prices will rise because of scarcity.” Now, we are getting to see firsthand whether oil prices really do rise, as oil supplies become more scarce. Figure 1. Figure from the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for August 2019 showing world and OPEC oil production by month. Figure 1 shows that world[Read More…]

by 23/08/2019 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
The true feasibility of moving away from fossil fuels

The true feasibility of moving away from fossil fuels

One of the great misconceptions of our time is the belief that we can move away from fossil fuels if we make suitable choices on fuels. In one view, we can make the transition to a low-energy economy powered by wind, water, and solar. In other versions, we might include some other energy sources, such as biofuels or nuclear, but[Read More…]

by 10/04/2019 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
Have We Already Passed World Peak Oil and World Peak Coal?

Have We Already Passed World Peak Oil and World Peak Coal?

Most people expect that our signal of an impending reduction in world oil or coal production will be high prices. Looking at historical data (for example, this post and this post), this is precisely the opposite of the correct price signal. Oil and coal supplies decline because prices fall too low for producers. These producers make voluntary cutbacks because the prices they receive fall below their[Read More…]

by 23/02/2019 2 comments Resource Crisis
The Senecca Cliff

How the Peak Oil story could be “close,” but not quite right

A few years ago, especially in the 2005-2008 period, many people were concerned that the oil supply would run out. They were concerned about high oil prices and a possible need for rationing. The story was often called “Peak Oil.” Peak Oil theorists have also branched out into providing calculations that might be used to determine which substitutes for fossil fuels[Read More…]

by 31/01/2019 1 comment Resource Crisis
2019: World Economy Is Reaching Growth Limits; Expect Low Oil Prices, Financial Turbulence

2019: World Economy Is Reaching Growth Limits; Expect Low Oil Prices, Financial Turbulence

Financial markets have been behaving in a very turbulent manner in the last couple of months. The issue, as I see it, is that the world economy is gradually changing from a growth mode to a mode of shrinkage. This is something like a ship changing course, from going in one direction to going in reverse. The system acts as if the[Read More…]

by 10/01/2019 2 comments Resource Crisis
Electricity won’t save us from our oil problems

Electricity won’t save us from our oil problems

Almost everyone seems to believe that our energy problems are primarily oil-related. Electricity will save us. I recently gave a talk to a group of IEEE electricity researchers (primarily engineers) about the current energy situation and how welcoming it is for new technologies. Needless to say, this group did not come with the standard mindset. They wanted to understand what the[Read More…]

by 21/12/2018 1 comment Resource Crisis
Low Oil Prices: An Indication of Major Problems Ahead?

Low Oil Prices: An Indication of Major Problems Ahead?

Many people, including most Peak Oilers, expect that oil prices will rise endlessly. They expect rising oil prices because, over time, companies find it necessary to access more difficult-to-extract oil. Accessing such oil tends to be increasingly expensive because it tends to require the use of greater quantities of resources and more advanced technology. This issue is sometimes referred to[Read More…]

by 29/11/2018 1 comment Resource Crisis
Why we get bad diagnoses for the world’s energy-economy problems

Why we get bad diagnoses for the world’s energy-economy problems

The world economy seems to be seriously ill. The problem is not overly high oil prices, but that does not rule out energy as being a major underlying problem. Two of the symptoms of the economy’s malaise are slow wage growth and increasing wage disparity. Tariffs are being added as solutions to these issues. Radical leaders are increasingly being elected.[Read More…]

by 08/11/2018 1 comment Resource Crisis
The World’s Fragile Economic Condition – Part 2

The World’s Fragile Economic Condition – Part 2

The world economy can appear to be operating quite well but can be hiding a major problem that causes it to be fragile. My presentation The World’s Fragile Economic Condition (PDF) explains why we should expect financial problems if energy consumption stops growing sufficiently rapidly. In fact, a global sell off in the equity markets, such as we have started to see[Read More…]

by 15/10/2018 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
The World’s Fragile Economic Condition – Part 1

The World’s Fragile Economic Condition – Part 1

Where is the world economy heading? In my opinion, a large portion of the story that we usually hear about how the world economy operates and the role energy plays is not really correct. In this post (to be continued in Part 2 in the near future), I explain how some of the major elements of the world economy seem to[Read More…]

by 24/09/2018 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
Supplemental energy puts humans in charge

Supplemental energy puts humans in charge

Energy is a subject that is greatly misunderstood. Its role in our lives is truly amazing. We humans are able to live and move because of the energy that we get from food. We count this energy in calories. Green plants are also energy dependent. In photosynthesis, plants use energy from the sun to convert carbon dioxide and water into[Read More…]

by 03/08/2018 3 comments Resource Crisis
The world’s weird self-organizing economy

The world’s weird self-organizing economy

Why is it so difficult to make accurate long-term economic forecasts for the world economy? There are many separate countries involved, each with a self-organizing economy made up of businesses, consumers, governments, and laws. These individual economies together create a single world economy, which again is self-organizing. Self-organizing economies don’t work in a convenient linear pattern–in other words, in a[Read More…]

by 12/07/2018 1 comment Resource Crisis
Eight insights based on December 2017 energy data

Eight insights based on December 2017 energy data

BP recently published energy data through December 31, 2017, in its Statistical Review of World Energy 2018. The following are a few points we observe, looking at the data: [1] The world is making limited progress toward moving away from fossil fuels. The two bands that top fossil fuels that are relatively easy to see are nuclear electric power and hydroelectricity. Solar,[Read More…]

by 23/06/2018 2 comments Resource Crisis
Our Energy Problem Is a Quantity Problem

Our Energy Problem Is a Quantity Problem

Reading many of today’s energy articles, it is easy to get the impression that our energy problem is a quality problem—some energy is polluting; other energy is hoped to be less polluting. There is a different issue that we are not being told about. It is the fact that having enough energy is terribly important, as well. Total world energy consumption has risen quickly[Read More…]

by 31/05/2018 1 comment Resource Crisis
Why the Standard Model of Future Energy Supply Doesn’t Work

Why the Standard Model of Future Energy Supply Doesn’t Work

The most prevalent view regarding future oil supply, as well as total energy supply, seems to be fairly closely related to that expressed by Peak Oilers. Future fossil fuel supply is assumed to be determined by the resources in the ground and the technology available for extraction. Prices are assumed to rise as fossil fuels are depleted, allowing more expensive[Read More…]

by 05/04/2018 2 comments Resource Crisis
Our Latest Oil Predicament

Our Latest Oil Predicament

It is impossible to tell the whole oil story, but perhaps I can offer a few insights regarding where we are today. [1] We already seem to be back to the falling oil prices and refilling storage tanks scenario. US crude oil stocks hit their low point on January 19, 2018 and have started to rise again. The amount of crude oil fill[Read More…]

by 14/03/2018 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
Will The World Economy Continue To “Roll Along” In 2018?

Will The World Economy Continue To “Roll Along” In 2018?

Once upon a time, we worried about oil and other energy. Now, a song from 1930 seems to be appropriate: Today, we have a surplus of oil, which we are trying to use up. That never happened before, or did it? Well, actually, it did, back around 1930. As most of us remember, that was not a pleasant time. It[Read More…]

by 10/01/2018 1 comment Resource Crisis
Will China Bring An Energy-Debt Crisis?

Will China Bring An Energy-Debt Crisis?

It is easy for those of us in the West to overlook how important China has become to the world economy, and also the limits it is reaching. The two big areas in which China seems to be reaching limits are energy production and debt. Reaching either of these limits could eventually cause a collapse. China is reaching energy production limits in a[Read More…]

by 09/11/2017 1 comment Resource Crisis
The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis

The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis

I was recently asked to give a talk called, “The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis.” In other words, how might the United States encounter problems that lead to a crisis? As we will see, many of the problems that could lead to a crisis (such as increased wage disparity and difficulty in collecting enough taxes) are issues that we are already beginning[Read More…]

by 20/10/2017 1 comment Resource Crisis
Why political correctness fails – Why what we know ‘for sure’ is wrong (Ex Religion)

Why political correctness fails – Why what we know ‘for sure’ is wrong (Ex Religion)

Most of us are familiar with the Politically Correct (PC) World View. William Deresiewicz describes the view, which he calls the “religion of success,” as follows: There is a right way to think and a right way to talk, and also a right set of things to think and talk about. Secularism is taken for granted. Environmentalism is a sacred cause. Issues[Read More…]

by 03/10/2017 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
Why Oil Prices Can’t Bounce Very High; Expect Deflation Instead

Why Oil Prices Can’t Bounce Very High; Expect Deflation Instead

Economists have given us a model of how prices and quantities of goods are supposed to interact. Figure 1. From Wikipedia: The price P of a product is determined by a balance between production at each price (supply S) and the desires of those with purchasing power at each price (demand D). The diagram shows a positive shift in demand[Read More…]

by 12/09/2017 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
World GDP In Current US Dollars Seems To Have Peaked; This Is A Problem

World GDP In Current US Dollars Seems To Have Peaked; This Is A Problem

World GDP in current US dollars is in some sense the simplest world GDP calculation that a person might make. It is calculated by taking the GDP for each year for each country in the local currency (for example, yen) and converting these GDP amounts to US dollars using the then-current relativity between the local currency and the US dollar.[Read More…]

by 16/08/2017 2 comments Resource Crisis
The Next Financial Crisis Is Not Far Away

The Next Financial Crisis Is Not Far Away

Recently, a Spanish group called “Ecologist in Action” asked me to give them a presentation on what kind of financial crisis we should expect. They wanted to know when it would be and how it would take place. The answer I had for the group is that we should expect financial collapse quite soon–perhaps as soon as the next few[Read More…]

by 03/07/2017 1 comment Resource Crisis
Falling Interest Rates Have Postponed “Peak Oil”

Falling Interest Rates Have Postponed “Peak Oil”

Falling interest rates have huge power. My background is as an actuary, so I am very much aware of the great power of interest rates. But a lot of people are not aware of this power, including, I suspect, some of the people making today’s decisions to raise interest rates. Similar people want to sell securities now being held by[Read More…]

by 12/06/2017 3 comments Resource Crisis
Why We Should Be Concerned About Low Oil Prices

Why We Should Be Concerned About Low Oil Prices

Most people assume that oil prices, and for that matter other energy prices, will rise as we reach limits. This isn’t really the way the system works; oil prices can be expected to fall too low, as we reach limits. Thus, we should not be surprised if the OPEC/Russia agreement to limit oil extraction falls apart, and oil prices fall[Read More…]

by 05/05/2017 2 comments Resource Crisis
Why Energy-Economy Models Produce Overly Optimistic Indications

Why Energy-Economy Models Produce Overly Optimistic Indications

I was asked to give a talk to a committee of actuaries who are concerned about modeling the financial future of programs, such as pension plans, given the energy problems that are often discussed. They (and the consultants that they hire) have been using an approach that puts problems far off into the future. I was trying to explain why[Read More…]

by 30/03/2017 1 comment Resource Crisis
2017: The Year When The World Economy Starts Coming Apart

2017: The Year When The World Economy Starts Coming Apart

Some people would argue that 2016 was the year that the world economy started to come apart, with the passage of Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. Whether or not the “coming apart” process started in 2016, in my opinion we are going to see many more steps in this direction in 2017. Let me explain a few of[Read More…]

by 11/01/2017 3 comments Resource Crisis
What Has Gone Wrong With Oil Prices, Debt, And GDP Growth?

What Has Gone Wrong With Oil Prices, Debt, And GDP Growth?

Our economy is a mystery to almost everyone, including economists. Let me explain the way I see the situation: (1) The big thing that pulls the economy forward is the time-shifting nature of debt and debt-like instruments. If we want any kind of specialization, we need some sort of long-term obligation that will make that specialization worthwhile. If one hunter-gatherer[Read More…]

by 09/12/2016 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
Why Energy Prices Are Ultimately Headed Lower; What The IMF Missed

Why Energy Prices Are Ultimately Headed Lower; What The IMF Missed

We have been hearing a great deal about IMF concerns recently, after the release of itsOctober 2016 World Economic Outlook and its Annual Meeting October 7-9. The concerns mentioned include the following: Too much growth in debt, with China particularly mentioned as a problem World economic growth seems to have slowed on a long-term basis Central bank intervention required to produce[Read More…]

by 13/10/2016 1 comment Resource Crisis
What Really Causes Falling Productivity Growth:An Energy-Based Explanation

What Really Causes Falling Productivity Growth:An Energy-Based Explanation

What really causes falling productivity growth? The answer seems to be very much energy-related. Human labor by itself does not cause productivity growth. It is human labor, leveraged by various tools, that leads to productivity growth. These tools are made using energy, and they often use energy to operate. A decrease in energy consumption by the business sector can be[Read More…]

by 21/09/2016 1 comment Resource Crisis
An Updated Version Of The “Peak Oil” Story

An Updated Version Of The “Peak Oil” Story

The Peak Oil story got some things right. Back in 1998, Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrère wrote an article published in Scientific American called, “The End of Cheap Oil.” In it they said: Our analysis of the discovery and production of oil fields around the world suggests that within the next decade, the supply of conventional oil will be unable to keep[Read More…]

by 09/08/2016 1 comment Resource Crisis
Overly Simple Energy-Economy Models Give Misleading Answers

Overly Simple Energy-Economy Models Give Misleading Answers

Does it make a difference if our models of energy and the economy are overly simple? I would argue that it depends on what we plan to use the models for. If all we want to do is determine approximately how many years in the future energy supplies will turn down, then a simple model is perfectly sufficient. But if[Read More…]

by 26/07/2016 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
Energy Limits: Why We See Rising Wealth Disparity And Low Prices

Energy Limits: Why We See Rising Wealth Disparity And Low Prices

Prices of oil, coal, and natural gas tend to rise and fall together–just as we would expect, if they are all responding to the same changes in debt levels, and indirectly, the same changes in world economic growth rates. If energy prices are based on debt levels, our concern should be that all fossil fuels will peak within a few years of each other. The cause of the peak will be low prices, not “running out” of energy products

by 06/07/2016 1 comment Resource Crisis
China: Is Peak Coal Part Of Its Problem?

China: Is Peak Coal Part Of Its Problem?

The world’s coal resources are clearly huge. How could China, or the world in total, reach peak coal in a timeframe that makes a difference? If we look at China’s coal production and consumption in BP’s 2016 Statistical Review of World Energy (SRWE), this is what we see: Figure 1. China’s production and consumption of coal based on BP 2016 SRWE. Figure 2[Read More…]

by 20/06/2016 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
$50 Oil Doesn’t Work

$50 Oil Doesn’t Work

$50 per barrel oil is clearly less impossible to live with than $30 per barrel oil, because most businesses cannot make a profit with $30 per barrel oil. But is $50 per barrel oil helpful? I would argue that it really is not. When oil was over $100 per barrel, human beings in many countries were getting the benefit of[Read More…]

by 17/06/2016 Comments are Disabled Uncategorized
The Real Oil Limits Story; What Other Researchers Missed

The Real Oil Limits Story; What Other Researchers Missed

For a long time, a common assumption has been that the world will eventually “run out” of oil and other non-renewable resources. Instead, we seem to be running into surpluses and low prices. What is going on that was missed by M. King Hubbert, Harold Hotelling, and by the popular understanding of supply and demand? The underlying assumption in these[Read More…]

by 17/06/2016 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
The Physics Of Energy And The Economy

The Physics Of Energy And The Economy

I approach the subject of the physics of energy and the economy with some trepidation. An economy seems to be a dissipative system, but what does this really mean? There are not many people who understand dissipative systems, and very few who understand how an economy operates. The combination leads to an awfully lot of false beliefs about the energy[Read More…]

by 17/06/2016 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
Why “Supply And Demand” Doesn’t Work For Oil

Why “Supply And Demand” Doesn’t Work For Oil

The traditional understanding of supply and demand works in some limited cases–will a manufacturer make red dresses or blue dresses? The manufacturer’s choice doesn’t make much difference to the economic system as a whole, except perhaps in the amount of red and blue dye sold, so it is easy to accommodate. Figure 1. From Wikipedia: The price P of a[Read More…]

by 17/06/2016 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
How Our Energy Problem Leads To A Debt Collapse Problem

How Our Energy Problem Leads To A Debt Collapse Problem

Usually, we don’t stop to think about how the whole economy works together. A major reason is that we have been lacking data to see long-term relationships. In this post, I show some longer-term time series relating to energy growth, GDP growth, and debt growth–going back to 1820 in some cases–that help us understand our situation better. When examining these[Read More…]

by 17/06/2016 Comments are Disabled Globalisation, Resource Crisis
Oil And The Economy: Where Are We Headed In 2015-16?

Oil And The Economy: Where Are We Headed In 2015-16?

The price of oil is down. How should we expect the economy to perform in 2015 and 2016? Newspapers in the United States seem to emphasize the positive aspects of the drop in prices. I have written Ten Reasons Why High Oil Prices are a Problem. If our only problem were high oil prices, then low oil prices would seem to[Read More…]

by 17/06/2016 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
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